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Old 05-13-2022, 04:40 PM
 
50,721 posts, read 36,411,320 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRM20 View Post
One thing to keep in mind, using Exxon as an example from their Q1 financials(https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/New...r-2022-results), is that the major companies refine more oil than they produce. Exxon produces 2.3 million barrels per day of oil, and refines 4 million barrels per day. That means Exxon pays full market price for the 1.7 million barrels per day difference between production and refinery capacity. They sell 5.1 million barrels per day of petroleum, which means the company is buying 1.1 million barrels per day of refined products at wholesale prices. There are times when the refining portion is going to lose money due to outside purchases, but refineries can't be run at low rates for very long.

Oil is going to be sold at world market prices. That's just the way it is.

Minor correction, the Canadian heavy crude would likely be at least partially processed here, and lighter crudes exported. US refineries are generally optimized for heavier crudes. The refinery in Chalmette, Louisiana was built to refine Venezuelan crude. Venezuela doesn't refine much oil. It is semi-funny that much of the increase in US production in recent years cannot be efficiently refined here.

It's a very complex, multi-layered issue, but people want to boil every complex problem down into quick and simple sound bite causes and solutions. But nothing is that simple in a global economy with a myriad of influencing factors.



And I certainly don't trust oil billionaires to have my best interests at heart. Nor the government.

Last edited by ocnjgirl; 05-13-2022 at 04:57 PM..
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:43 PM
 
2,281 posts, read 1,581,021 times
Reputation: 3858
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Whoever thinks homes are slowing in florida needs to get out more …

There is so much demand in the villages you have to make a reservation and they send you by bus load .

Most businesses can’t find employees in many areas .

Here in Long Island we have 61 job openings to fill at the company i do some work for
Buyer demand is slowing. why would I make this up?
Instead of 30-40 people bidding for a home now there's around 10
You can speak to my SWFL realtors yourself who told me.
Many first time home buyers have stopped due to rates rising so fast.
It seems logical.

Would you agree the Villages is not a first time buyer market, 95% retirees, right?
I am familiar with the area and have been Glenview racquet club off Buena Vista.

Even Los Angeles has reported lower sales prices vs last year.. recent Realtor.com report.
However, I know demand has not stopped in Denver. A client bid $300k over asking price and was beat by someone else at $350k over asking.

And I'd say 9 out of 10 buyers using non-qm loans have stopped looking. Rates for these loans were 4.5 in January, now 6.5 to high 7s. A payment difference of $1,000+ more in 3 months will make you sit it out. I'm referring to buyers looking for homes price from $600k to $1.5 million. Perhaps the $300-500K market in some areas is still highly competitive.

Last edited by frankrj; 05-13-2022 at 04:54 PM..
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:57 PM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,518 posts, read 34,807,002 times
Reputation: 73729
I dunno, average sales time in The Villages 4/21 was 43 days, as of 4/22 average is 11 days.

Number of home sales 4/21 was 118, and 4/22 is 109.

There are 10% less homes for sale 4/22 over 4/21..

Median home price is up 20%, same time frame.

https://www.rockethomes.com/real-est...illages-sumter

Overall, it seems to be moving at the same clip.
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Old 05-13-2022, 05:19 PM
 
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It's not my words or prediction.

Yes demand will still be robust but a lot of buyers are no longer looking from what I posted about interest rates.

For those who have access to more funds, they can simply put more money down to offset the rate and payment increase.

Here's what I was referring to;

https://www.route-fifty.com/finance/...alling/366631/

https://fortune.com/2022/05/02/home-...l-moodys-says/
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Old 05-13-2022, 05:53 PM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,518 posts, read 34,807,002 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
It's not my words or prediction.

Yes demand will still be robust but a lot of buyers are no longer looking from what I posted about interest rates.

For those who have access to more funds, they can simply put more money down to offset the rate and payment increase.

Here's what I was referring to;

https://www.route-fifty.com/finance/...alling/366631/

https://fortune.com/2022/05/02/home-...l-moodys-says/
Well, the first one just listed 10 over valued areas. The 2nd says overvalued areas may drop 10-15% (after growth in the 30% range)

Neither article is very pessimistic, just things will slow, some may drop in value a bit.

Did anyone really think the housing market could keep jumping around 10-30% per year? Does anyone think it should?

The housing market had some crazy growth over the last few years, it NEEDS to slow down.
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Old 05-14-2022, 02:39 AM
 
106,579 posts, read 108,713,667 times
Reputation: 80063
The housing market here is nuts .

There is a supply shortage of decent homes .


My son just ended up having to buy a home before it was even listed .

Home after home he bid on went into a bidding war and ultimately have been going to all cash buyers .

A client of his said that his brother was getting divorced and they were going to sell the house and split up ..

He called them and ended up taking the house ….

His home could sell in one day as most desirable homes are selling in westchester.

Demand is crazy but supply stinks
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Old 05-14-2022, 09:00 AM
 
7,747 posts, read 3,778,838 times
Reputation: 14641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote View Post
I listened to something recently...
Well, I guess that makes it a reliable source.
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Old 05-14-2022, 09:05 AM
 
7,747 posts, read 3,778,838 times
Reputation: 14641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
It had everything to do with trade status. Their trade status was changed and that is what made it possible for China to become our biggest trading partner. The USA opened the front door for China and the Chinese as well as US based manufacturers did the rest.

Where is all this coming from? Granting China favored trade status for us was at best a wash. We got cheaper junk and created the rust belt. It benefited China and corporate profits. Explain how letting China take over our manufacturing benefited pension funds and retirees?
<sigh.> Clearly, not everyone has the capacity for strategic thought.

The change in trade status was a tactic. A tactic.

It was not a strategy. It was not an objective. It was merely a tactic in the larger game of chess.
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Old 05-14-2022, 09:06 AM
 
7,747 posts, read 3,778,838 times
Reputation: 14641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
Realtors use comps to come up with the right price for the home.
Realtors do NOT come up with the "right price for the home." Buyers do.
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Old 05-14-2022, 09:09 AM
 
7,747 posts, read 3,778,838 times
Reputation: 14641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote View Post
there were still pensions in the 70's.
Defined benefit pensions should be banned.
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