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Old 05-14-2022, 10:25 AM
 
7,985 posts, read 3,918,759 times
Reputation: 14996

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
No president really has that much influence over oil prices.
On Tuesday President Biden incorrectly blamed record gasoline prices on Vladimir Putin. The next day the Biden Administration announced the cancellation of three offshore oil and gas lease sales. The Administration did this as part of its goal of increasing the price of energy in order to adhere to the progressive wing's climate orthodoxy, thereby driving down our standard of living along the way.

A single week after Biden was inaugurated as President, he issued an Executive Order banning future oil & gas leases on federal lands even though those leases were part of a 5-year plan finalized during the Obama Administration (who was VP in the Obama Administration?). Then, last June, a federal judge blocked Biden's ban as illegal, as Biden had overstepped his authority. (Which national politician was it who criticized Trump saying "a President is not a King?")

Since then, the Biden Administration has done almost nothing to comply with the federal court order. After dragging its feet, the Department of the Interior last November held the offshore sale in the Gulf of Mexico.

A liberal federal judge vacated those sales in January, on the partisan legal stretch that the government didn’t consider the greenhouse-gas emissions of the oil that would be produced by the leases and consumed abroad. The Administration chose not to appeal, and it now blames the judge for its decision to cancel three auctions that were scheduled this year under the Obama five-year plan.

The Biden Administration falsely asserts a lack of interest in those leases, but the November sale drew strong demand. I guess if the Biden Administration actually creates its proposed Ministry of Truth, it can start by investigating the Biden Administration false statement of lack of interest in O&G leases.

The Biden Administration is nonetheless doing everything it can to limit U.S. investment and production. The Obama five-year offshore plan expires in June. Yet the Administration’s budget indicates it doesn’t plan to hold another sale in the Gulf until at least fiscal year 2024.
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Old 05-14-2022, 10:27 AM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,581 posts, read 34,987,245 times
Reputation: 73942
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post
On Tuesday President Biden incorrectly blamed record gasoline prices on Vladimir Putin. The next day the Biden Administration announced the cancellation of three offshore oil and gas lease sales. The Administration did this as part of its goal of increasing the price of energy (thereby driving down our standard of living) in order to adhere to the progressive wing's climate orthodoxy.

A single week after Biden was inaugurated to be President, he issued a ban on future oil & gas leases on federal lands even though those leases were part of a 5-year plan finalized during the Obama Administration (who was VP in the Obama Administration?). Then, last June, a federal judge blocked Biden's illegal ban, as Biden had overstepped his authority. (Which national politician was it who criticized Trump saying "a President is not a King?")

Since then, the Biden Administration has done almost nothing to comply with the federal court order. After dragging its feet, the Department of the Interior last November held the offshore sale in the Gulf of Mexico.

A liberal federal judge vacated those sales in January, on the partisan legal stretch that the government didn’t consider the greenhouse-gas emissions of the oil that would be produced by the leases and consumed abroad. The Administration chose not to appeal, and it now blames the judge for its decision to cancel three auctions that were scheduled this year under the Obama five-year plan.

The Biden Administration falsely asserts a lack of interest in those leases, but the November sale drew strong demand. I guess if the Biden Administration actually creates its proposed Ministry of Truth, it can start by investigating the Biden Administraion false statement of lack of interest in O&G leases.

The Biden Administration is nonetheless doing everything it can to limit U.S. investment and production. The Obama five-year offshore plan expires in June. Yet the Administration’s budget indicates it doesn’t plan to hold another sale in the Gulf until at least fiscal year 2024.

So all of the other countries in the world are not experiencing high fuel costs also?
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Old 05-14-2022, 11:48 AM
 
30,253 posts, read 11,879,363 times
Reputation: 18719
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post

It is a myth that Phoenix/Tucson/Las Vegas are hot. It rarely gets above 115.
You do make me laugh. I will give you that.

The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in Scottsdale.
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Old 05-14-2022, 12:00 PM
 
15,569 posts, read 7,590,049 times
Reputation: 19460
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post
Sounds like a great spot for people in the Federal Witness Relocation program.
Ha, perhaps. Or, they might actually want to go to jail instead.
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Old 05-14-2022, 02:58 PM
 
Location: PNW
7,714 posts, read 3,329,666 times
Reputation: 10903
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote View Post
I listened to something recently and the guy stated that the Fed doesn't give a rip about inflation and that it's all really about maintaining the Dollar at all costs. Without our Reserve Currency status we are hosed. I posted the link for that (above).
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote View Post
I listened to something recently...
Well, I guess that makes it a reliable source.
I threw that out (with the link) to see if anyone has heard of or agreed with that thought process Ahat. As far as I know I am allowed to make a casual comment amongst the CD forum of anonymous people. I'm not giving financial advice as a professional.

Stop taking people out of context.
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Old 05-14-2022, 03:04 PM
 
Location: Ohio
24,621 posts, read 19,208,282 times
Reputation: 21745
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
But they make more profits when demand is higher than supply.
Only in the short-term, because in the short-term Demand for oil is inelastic.

Over the long-term, Demand for oil is elastic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
This article on Baron's summarizes a quarterly survey done by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. They surveyed 141 oil and gas firms in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico. They state a variety of reasons for not producing more, including government interference, but the biggest reason was still regarding gun-shy stockholders.

"When asked why they aren’t raising production more, 59% of respondents said it was because investors are pressuring them to maintain capital discipline.
Federal law prohibits the export of raw crude oils.

I'm guessing that A) you were totally ignorant of that; and B) you have ZERO understanding of how that affects things-oil.

You have 129 operating oil refineries in the US. The number of oil refineries has been dwindling over the decades for many reasons. 129 is down from the 165 operating refineries several years ago.

Now...all of you need to understand what I'm about to say....

For the Week of May 6 you exported 942,000 barrels of gasoline

That's 942,000 42-gallon barrels of gasoline or 39,564,000 gallons per week on average

Why are you exporting gasoline when gasoline prices are average $4/gallon?

I've explained this ad infinitum ad nauseum until I wanna puke on everyone's shoes.

Your oil is garbage.

Why do you think you were importing Siberian Light from Russia in the first place?

Siberian Light is a sweet oil. Louisiana Sour is a light oil loaded with Sulfur.

That's why.

The Sulfur Redux would permanently increase gas prices by $0.24-$0.28/gallon

But that ain't the end of the story.

The Sulfur Redux reduces production capacity. Instead of refining 100,000/barrels of gasoline per day, now you're refining 65,000/barrels per day.

Congratulations! You just reduced the Gasoline Supply and created a massive shortage causing prices to rise even higher than they are now.

Those refineries on the Gulf Coast producing gasoline are using Louisiana Sour and East Texas Sour (an intermediate grade oil) and they are exporting it.

So....why would any intelligent person invest in US oil production?

Unless and until federal law changes, you have to refine anything produced in the US.

Do you have the refining capacity?

Um, no, you don't.

As an investor, do you wanna pay the cost of long-term storage?

I think not.

I've said in the past you haven't built any new refineries.

While it's factually incorrect, it is true for the Little Brains who think Mad Dog 20/20 is the same as fine Champagne and still don't understand the difference between light oils, intermediate oils, heavy oils, waxes and tars.

You've built 3 refineries in the last 25 years, all on abandoned refinery sites, and all low capacity -- 30,000 to 40,000 barrels per day.

One other noteworthy point. They can only refine condensate.

If grape juice is "pre-wine" then condensate is "pre-oil." It's what exists before it becomes oil. Most of your worthless fracking is actually condensate and not oil.

When you're at the gas pump and you have a choice of pushing one of the buttons that says 87, 89 or 92, that's the Octane rating.

C8 is Octane meaning 8 Carbon atoms attached to Hydrogen atoms, hence Hydrocarbon.

Light oils have lots of C8, intermediate grade not so much, and heavy oils very little.

Can you break down the longer Carbon chains in heavy oils? Sure, but like Sulfur Redux it takes time and reduces production capacity, which decreases the Gasoline Supply and drives prices up.

A barrel of shale oil has 0.1% Octane. You need ten 42-gallon barrels of shale oil to get 1 gallon of gasoline, so I guess it's a good thing you're destroying the environment and ruining people's lives.

Condensate/shale oil is mostly Esters, meaning C3, C4, C5, C6.

You wash your hair with Esters, smear Esters all over your body, women put Esters on their face, men pretending to be women put Esters on their face, you eat and drink Esters, your greater life expectancy from birth and from age 65 are due to Esters, you wear Esters, you drive Esters, your home is full of Esters.

You can get Esters from plants, but that would mean converting the 100+ Million acres of fallow farm land in the US into non-food crop farms, plus plowing under more than half your food-crop acreage.

Now everyone is starving to death, but, hey, you look good and smell good, and you'll live longer provided you don't starve to death first.

Again, why would anyone invest in domestic oil production?

Ironically, Japan and Korea buy oil from Iran because US policy bans raw crude exports.

Lift the ban and investors will gladly pony up money.

To understand how silly it is, you can export finished gasoline but not raw crude oil, which would be like
exporting bread but not being allowed to export wheat.

Consider how the ban affects investing. Contrary to the Little Brains, OPEC does not now, nor have they ever set oil prices.

The benchmark crude is Brent Blend from the North Sea, which is not OPEC.

There are actually two oil prices: the global price and the US domestic price. I mention that because West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the domestic benchmark.

Sorry, Little Brains, Texas is not OPEC, but WTI is typically discounted $5 to $10 to Brent Blend.

What impact does that have?

Imagine you were competing against Wal-Mart and you had to sell your products for $5 to $10 less than
your competitors.

How long do you think you could stay in business? How much Capital would you have to reinvest in your
business?

The export ban on raw crude oil is a Nixon Administration thing.

It's based entirely on fallacies.

First, the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo was not the cause of higher oil prices, the ban on raw crude oil exports could not and never did shield consumers from disruptions in gasoline prices.

There can only be one global oil price, but lots of different domestic oil prices. There can also be price differences based on the quality of the oil.

Crappy Canadian Tar Sands always sells for $10-$30/less per barrel than Brent Blend.

Why? I just told you why. It's crap. Nobody wants it.

Do you think a Yugo should sell for the same price as a BMW Z4?

It is a fundamental Law of Economics that if a seller is getting a high price, it attracts other sellers who want a piece of the profit pie and at the end of the day, prices equalize right back to where they always should have been.

That is exactly what happened in the rest of the World, but not in the US.

Why? The actual cause of high gasoline prices were Nixon's price controls and the way domestic oils were allocated to US refineries, and again, that was a Nixon thing. There was also the decline of the US Dollar and Nixon took the US off the Gold Standard.

All those things together caused gasoline shortages, high gasoline prices and long lines.

For those who doubt, time warp back to 1979 and Carter's total screw-up in Iran.

OPEC didn't do squat, but you still had high gasoline prices and long lines for gasoline.

The rest of the World did not, but you did, thanks to stupid policies that were ostensibly designed to prevent those things from happening.

OPEC is your mostest bestest friend, because OPEC policies save Americans a few $100 Billion every year, and as many have noted, that translates into savings of roughly $1,000 per driver.

Getting back to refinery limitations, your refineries have realigned themselves to produce more gasoline
without having to build a new refinery.

However, that's part of the problem because it also means your refineries are capped at about 5-6 Million/barrels per day capacity of sweet oils.

For the Little Brains, sweet oils are not sour oils and sour oils are not sweet oils.

That's one reason some of the bigger refineries have closed, because they can't get the oil they need.

As I've said 50 Million times, it's oils, plural.

There's sweet and sour light, sweet and sour intermediate, sweet and sour heavy, and waxes and tars are all sour. You cannot run heavy sour through a refinery set up for light sweet crude. You cannot run light sour through a refinery set up for light sweet crude.

You can run crappy Canadian Tar Sands only through a refinery set up for heavy sour, and even then, only after you mix it with 100s of 1,00os of gallons of petroleum solvents to turn the solid tar into a liquid, and then you have to get rid of the petroleum solvents, which increases the cost.

It's also high Sulfur, so, no, you will not be making gasoline out of crappy Canadian Tar Sands.

Ignoring excise taxes, only 68% of the price of gasoline is crude oil. Refining costs are fixed, so the biggest variable is transportation costs, plus the price of ethanol.

It is Liberals who are supporting the continued ban on exporting raw crude oils.

On the one side are unions who believe that refineries will shut down and decrease union membership.

Why? They believe that raw crude will be exported and refined elsewhere. That might be true, but so what if it is?

On the other side are the climate nutters. Their issue is that the raw crude that is exported will A) be exported to States that do not have a fascist EPA; B) the raw crude that is exported will then be imported as petro-chemical products, and that will increase the carbon foot-print; and C) importing finished gasoline would reduce gas prices causing consumption to increase, thus adding to CO2.
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Old 05-14-2022, 03:09 PM
 
Location: Ohio
24,621 posts, read 19,208,282 times
Reputation: 21745
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post
Realtors do NOT come up with the "right price for the home." Buyers do.
In a Perfect World™.

It's sheer tautology. Realtors profit off of commission so they pressure sellers into listing at prices higher than market rates while simultaneously pressuring buyers into paying an over-inflated prices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
Buyer demand is slowing. why would I make this up?
A better question is why can you not understand that buyers are finite?

I mean, once you build a new house for every American over 18 years of age, then what?

Do you start trying to convince people that owning 2 homes is cool?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
Where is all this coming from? Granting China favored trade status for us was at best a wash. We got cheaper junk and created the rust belt.
Not on this planet.

On this planet, the Rust Belt was created in the 1970s and early 1980s, thanks to unions and tax-n-spend Liberals.

At that time, China was not trading with anyone, except perhaps North Korea.
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Old 05-14-2022, 03:31 PM
 
7,985 posts, read 3,918,759 times
Reputation: 14996
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikala43 View Post
Mogul, sometimes I think you are just contrary for the sake of arguing.
Who me?
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Old 05-14-2022, 03:34 PM
 
7,985 posts, read 3,918,759 times
Reputation: 14996
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
You do make me laugh. I will give you that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c


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Old 05-14-2022, 05:09 PM
 
15,569 posts, read 7,590,049 times
Reputation: 19460
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Only in the short-term, because in the short-term Demand for oil is inelastic.

Over the long-term, Demand for oil is elastic.


Federal law prohibits the export of raw crude oils.

I'm guessing that A) you were totally ignorant of that; and B) you have ZERO understanding of how that affects things-oil.

You have 129 operating oil refineries in the US. The number of oil refineries has been dwindling over the decades for many reasons. 129 is down from the 165 operating refineries several years ago.

Now...all of you need to understand what I'm about to say....

For the Week of May 6 you exported 942,000 barrels of gasoline

That's 942,000 42-gallon barrels of gasoline or 39,564,000 gallons per week on average

Why are you exporting gasoline when gasoline prices are average $4/gallon?

I've explained this ad infinitum ad nauseum until I wanna puke on everyone's shoes.

Your oil is garbage.

Why do you think you were importing Siberian Light from Russia in the first place?

Siberian Light is a sweet oil. Louisiana Sour is a light oil loaded with Sulfur.

That's why.

The Sulfur Redux would permanently increase gas prices by $0.24-$0.28/gallon

But that ain't the end of the story.

The Sulfur Redux reduces production capacity. Instead of refining 100,000/barrels of gasoline per day, now you're refining 65,000/barrels per day.

Congratulations! You just reduced the Gasoline Supply and created a massive shortage causing prices to rise even higher than they are now.

Those refineries on the Gulf Coast producing gasoline are using Louisiana Sour and East Texas Sour (an intermediate grade oil) and they are exporting it.

So....why would any intelligent person invest in US oil production?

Unless and until federal law changes, you have to refine anything produced in the US.

Do you have the refining capacity?

Um, no, you don't.

As an investor, do you wanna pay the cost of long-term storage?

I think not.

I've said in the past you haven't built any new refineries.
Major snippage
The US repealed the crude oil export ban in 2015

No refineries have closed due to a lack of supply. They closed due to fires, lack of money to upgrade, reduced demand during Covid, etc

No one wants to build a new refinery when it is cheaper to expand an existing plant. There are projects underway to expand existing refineries, like ExxonMobil's 250,000 bbl per day expansion of its Beaumont, Texas refinery. Motiva finished the expansion of its Port Arthur, Texas refinery to 600,000+ bbls per day in 2021. Marathon expanded its Garyville, Louisiana refinery to 578,000 bbls per day.

Refining capacity reached a peak in April of 2020, and has dropped by about 800k bbls per day

Most US Gulf Coast refineries are optimized for heavy crude, and the Russian crude that was imported was heavier than WIT.
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