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The economic contraction in store for us will be both horrific and permanent. No force alive can prevent or reverse this, as it is due to peak oil and energy/resource depletion.
The train will really start to come off the rails circa 2025. That is my official prediction.
What makes it "official" - other than it is as wrong as all the others.
Most recessions are less than a year (average 11.1 months) - even the great depression lasted only about 3.5 years. To have the current one be the worst in 3 years from now means it would have to be the longest depression ever - not happening. I am guessing it will be mostly over by this time next year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung
The economic contraction in store for us will be both horrific and permanent. No force alive can prevent or reverse this, as it is due to peak oil and energy/resource depletion.
Again with peak oil and energy depletion? With solar and wind quickly replacing much fossil fuel usage, and energy storage quickly becoming better - oil is getting less important. Also marginal oil recovery is becoming more efficient so peak oil will last a while and is quickly becoming a non-issue.
My guess is that government will be deadlock this year as midterms will be here so most likely serious downturn will be induced in order to unseat any incumbents. That's basically how it played out the last few recessions.
There's always gonna be carnage then followed by stimulus again.
I am very interested to see the retail sales figures on Wednesday. It may be just my area, but I feel like consumer demand has fallen off a cliff. Economists expect it to gradually slow in a predictable manner as price pressures slowly build, but there seems to be a herd mentality with these things, where rather than a nicely-charted and reasonable inflection, everybody just suddenly decides to stop spending, as if they're all on the same brainwave.
This is what I've seen:
last month / a month ago / normal
RV park is at 30% capacity / 50% capacity / 90% capacity (it is now the high season)
Aldi (discount grocer) has lines! / Nope / Never happens.
Freeway Traffic is surprisingly light / Moderately light / Usually jammed with summer vacationers.
Airlines have empty seats 4 days out / Packed full / Usually not this many seats available
Airfare algorithms are now discounting last-minute tickets / Tickets just weren't available / Usually prices spike.
Tourist area looks like mid-winter / Foot traffic was picking up / Generally this is the high season and it's packed.
Tip jars are empty / Normal / Normal.
A chicken-little moment over retail sales would not surprise me on Wednesday. In general, regarding the original subject, I seriously doubt we'll make it to 2023 before the depth of the recession hits. I think it is going to be a lot sharper and swifter than anyone is expecting.
At some point people are going to blow through all their gains they made from pandemic savings, equity and stock growth with all these higher prices. There are initial signs this is already happening with increased use of credit cards.
I am very interested to see the retail sales figures on Wednesday. It may be just my area, but I feel like consumer demand has fallen off a cliff. Economists expect it to gradually slow in a predictable manner as price pressures slowly build, but there seems to be a herd mentality with these things, where rather than a nicely-charted and reasonable inflection, everybody just suddenly decides to stop spending, as if they're all on the same brainwave.
This is what I've seen:
last month / a month ago / normal
RV park is at 30% capacity / 50% capacity / 90% capacity (it is now the high season)
Aldi (discount grocer) has lines! / Nope / Never happens.
Freeway Traffic is surprisingly light / Moderately light / Usually jammed with summer vacationers.
Airlines have empty seats 4 days out / Packed full / Usually not this many seats available
Airfare algorithms are now discounting last-minute tickets / Tickets just weren't available / Usually prices spike.
Tourist area looks like mid-winter / Foot traffic was picking up / Generally this is the high season and it's packed.
Tip jars are empty / Normal / Normal.
A chicken-little moment over retail sales would not surprise me on Wednesday. In general, regarding the original subject, I seriously doubt we'll make it to 2023 before the depth of the recession hits. I think it is going to be a lot sharper and swifter than anyone is expecting.
TLDR; retail sales are down 1.3% (0.3% actual, 1% inflation-adjusted) missed forecasts by about 0.4% (declining instead of increasing slightly).
1% month-month inflation along with a 4% increase in spending on gas (since most people can't modify their driving) is somewhat masking the decline.
Hard to believe anyone finds this decline "unexpected." I'm more surprised that economists expected any increase at all.
I think this is the inflection point for summer spending. I know the media has been going crazy about how packed flights and roads and vacation spots will be this summer, but I don't think that's going to be the reality. I've had to make flights on short notice many times over the past few months, and while Air travel was a gridlocked nightmare in the winter and spring, now that summer is here, I'm seeing a lot of empty seats.
Edit: The pundits are saying that it's because consumers are adjusting for high food and gas prices, but I think they're missing a key element; rising interest rates. EVERYTHING is financed these days. EVERYTHING. Not just cars and houses (which did decline sharply due to mortage/interest rates) but plane tickets, even that $100 crap bicycle from WalMart.
No matter what the fed does, I don't see any way out of this corner. Low interest rates and continued QE and inflation kills the economy forever and a day. Bump interest rates and unwind QE and consumer demand collapse kills the economy for just as long.
I am very interested to see the retail sales figures on Wednesday. It may be just my area, but I feel like consumer demand has fallen off a cliff. Economists expect it to gradually slow in a predictable manner as price pressures slowly build, but there seems to be a herd mentality with these things, where rather than a nicely-charted and reasonable inflection, everybody just suddenly decides to stop spending, as if they're all on the same brainwave.
This is what I've seen:
last month / a month ago / normal
RV park is at 30% capacity / 50% capacity / 90% capacity (it is now the high season)
Aldi (discount grocer) has lines! / Nope / Never happens.
Freeway Traffic is surprisingly light / Moderately light / Usually jammed with summer vacationers.
Airlines have empty seats 4 days out / Packed full / Usually not this many seats available
Airfare algorithms are now discounting last-minute tickets / Tickets just weren't available / Usually prices spike.
Tourist area looks like mid-winter / Foot traffic was picking up / Generally this is the high season and it's packed.
Tip jars are empty / Normal / Normal.
A chicken-little moment over retail sales would not surprise me on Wednesday. In general, regarding the original subject, I seriously doubt we'll make it to 2023 before the depth of the recession hits. I think it is going to be a lot sharper and swifter than anyone is expecting.
And we have seen TONS of RVs this season, campsites are hard to get reservations, even when we tried early, even dry camping the sites have been pretty full early in the season. Airline tickets were expensive from Hawaii, the plane was packed. Roads are packed with summer traffic.
Consumer spending has been at a high level, though that may be dropping off now, and inflation won't slow until enough people stop spending.
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Last edited by Mikala43; 06-15-2022 at 10:37 AM..
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