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Re airline traffic—
Have friend who flies AA only because she has high level pass code via her spouse who was AA employee with high number
She has flown to Chicago from DFW (major AA hub) this month, to NYC La Guardia last month, and to Tampa in FL last week to visit us—
Every flight was full and when she tried to change her booking return from Tampa to Sunday vs Monday (we had a conflict taking her to airport) she couldn’t get a seat—which means the flight basically was full since her pass level is only surpassed by pilots deadheading someplace—
So I think air travel is high—
Although I admit the amount of foot traffic in Tampa was not too bad when we picked her up—the short term parking garage was full until you got to the top 2 floors—that is a lot of cars for a Wednesday…
Our daughter who has friends in from DFW who flew and their flight was full
I know FL gets lot of summer traffic—but it doesn’t seem to be slacking off
Tried to get restaurant booking in several nicer places when our friend was here—these are $30+ entrees—
Nothing available at night over a 4 day weekend at normal dinner hours—we don’t eat at 9pm or 430
Some lunch times were booked as well—this is in Sarasota, not Tampa—but seems like people are eating out
We went to see Top Gun 2–Saturday matinee—theater was full
And I know that is doing blockbuster business == so is Jurassic Park—so some entertainmoney money is still being spent—line for popcorn was full, too (and not cheap)…
Our daughter and her friends took the 3 boys to Disney —spent 2 nights in Park hotel using points from a husband’s travel and went to park today—back tomorrow
Said it was busy
I looked on Target online to order some school clothes for my grandson and didn’t see anything drastic in the sales/discounts that have been so vaunted in the news…
I know the media has been going crazy about how packed flights and roads and vacation spots will be this summer, but I don't think that's going to be the reality. I've had to make flights on short notice many times over the past few months, and while Air travel was a gridlocked nightmare in the winter and spring, now that summer is here, I'm seeing a lot of empty seats.
According to TSA checkpoint data air passenger volume is indeed higher now than in the spring, and much higher than it was in the winter.
So comparing 2022 to 2019 there may have been a slight decline since April in the demand for air travel. Obviously many more people were traveling in 2019 than in 2022, but the delta between the two years hasn't diverged radically. If you squint your eyes and hold your breath it looks like air travel this year was rising compared to the last normal year (2019) until about mid-April. It appears to have gone up about 10% until then, and has now declined by about 5% or so since April 1st.
2022 compared to 2021 shows a 1M more travelers (this year) in mid-February and only 500K more now, but that is probably driven by leftover effects of COVID that year, as travel was rapidly increasing in the spring of 2021.
This matches what I'm seeing on my flights; not a dramatic decline since spring, but a few more seats open than I would have expected. I thought we'd get "revenge" travel this year.
Then again, ticket prices are sky-high compared to last year, so those few seats might be the consequence of the airlines adjusting to fuel prices (and trying to pull in some extra profit) rather than true softening demand due to other economic factors.
Powell just pretty much admitted that he is going to force a recession. I can't believe he just said that although he isn't intentionally targeting a higher unemployment rate, he would consider it a success if it rose over 4%. So the Fed is not only looking to eliminate the demand that created the job surplus but would actually like it to go further to raise the unemployment rate. He also acknowledges that commodity and food prices are beyond the Fed's control and may not cause inflation to come down to 2% but there is a way to get there by destroying demand enough to reduce demand for the items being consumed.
Corporate leaders will be getting the message that it's time to pull job openings and start trimming in anticipation of corporate layoffs to suppress wage growth.
Times are weird for sure. I've never seen inflation like this. The gas prices are nuts. I really think it's because at the moment there is too much money floating around the economy. Salaries are higher than they ever have been, people cashed out investments (stocks and real estate). Then covid hit and people were given money by the government.
I find the increase in prices to be just annoying. I dont eat out or get take out the way I used to because it's just not worth it. Why should I pay $17 for a cheeseburger? It's rare to find ANY type of food item on a menu for under $10, even a side item. I almost paid $5 for a small bottle of fruit punch at the airport the other day but i stopped myself. I think more people need to do what i'm doing. Just do not pay these prices...and they should go down right? Real estate is also out of control but seems like the tide is turning a bit there. I know people who purchased homes for 100k over asking and I just dont get why. These people weren't desperate for homes either. The decisions of others does affect everyone.
Gas, we don't really have a choice...but for certain food items and insane hotel prices, we do have a choice. We can decide to not pay these prices. The places won't go out of business, they'll just have to lower prices. During covid it seems like people got into this mindset of, I have to support my local business to keep them up and running. That's nice and all, but at this point I don't know why anyone would want to pay $16 for chicken sandwich at the local pub just to keep them up and running. I need my money also.
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