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Old 05-26-2022, 08:22 PM
 
Location: Knoxville, TN
11,521 posts, read 6,027,599 times
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Zero chance of civil war. We simply have too much to lose. High chance of civil unrest. No chance of civil war.

Also, I really laugh at people who think armed revolt is possible, or some kind of civil war.

An armed revolt of the populace against the government would go something like this.

Step 1: A bunch of people begin a revolution.

Step 2: The government turns off the internet.

Step 3: The government turns off all cell towers.

Your PCs and phones are now useless paper weights. I hope you have a lot of guys with HAM radios, because all communication just halted and it is back to cans tied together with string, unless you can start a pony express system, because guess what, all gas sales have been halted as well along with all food sales, followed by shutting off all drinking water to your city.

Are you getting the point yet?
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Old 05-26-2022, 08:27 PM
 
Location: Camberville
15,867 posts, read 21,455,012 times
Reputation: 28216
People whine about how inconvenienced they are about wearing a mask into a grocery store, but they're going to go to war?

Hilarious.
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Old 05-26-2022, 09:19 PM
 
10,864 posts, read 6,493,031 times
Reputation: 7959
I WAS WATCHING A Movie of revolution in Nicaragua,guerilla fighters entered the city on horseback with their rifles until the govt rolled out the tanks and helcopters.it was finished in an hour.
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Old 05-27-2022, 08:52 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,435 posts, read 1,324,872 times
Reputation: 2126
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
In keeping with this being the economics forum, new research into the cotton economy of the 19th century found it was much more powerful & profitable than 20th century historians let on. So there was VERY much an economic incentive to fight the U.S. Civil War from tbe southern side. Also a considerable incentive from the northern side given that immigrant whites who were 90% northern and black slaves who were 95% southern were fundamentally in economic competition.

Long story short, immense amounts of money were at stake.

What is the incentive for Americans to take up arms against each other now?

https://www.amazon.com/Empire-Cotton...2-19c206757232
A better comparison for today's climate isn't the Civil War, but the War for Independence. You still are dealing with economic conflict and incentives, though. In the 1850s it was a metaphorical dog growling that another is trying to take away its bone whereas in the 1770s and today it was/is a metaphorical cornered dog with few options remaining but to bite. There's also parallels to be drawn from the lead-up to the French Revolution.

The underclass today is cornered. Many grew up hearing of a world where someone with a high school education, good health, faith, and a work ethic could go out and get a good job, buy a home, and raise a family. Today, these traits are of little value and afford them few opportunities in the 21st century global service economy.

Most of the key sticking points politically tie back to this opportunity loss: globalization, immigration, income inequality, lack of 'good jobs', and so on. They read about how our society is wealthier than ever while they endure the second straight decade (if not longer) of economic stagnation in their community. They struggle to put food on the table while upper society ignores them to discuss gender pronouns and saving sea turtles. Sprinkle on the march of cultural and demographic changes on top of all these other stressors and it's certainly possible we'll have a revolt because cornered and threatened dogs tend to bite.

If a war is to happen, I anticipate the flashpoint to come from the underclass, not the grumpy old man who yells at his TV or refuses to wear a mask.
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Old 05-27-2022, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,069 posts, read 7,247,467 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by id77 View Post
A better comparison for today's climate isn't the Civil War, but the War for Independence. You still are dealing with economic conflict and incentives, though. In the 1850s it was a metaphorical dog growling that another is trying to take away its bone whereas in the 1770s and today it was/is a metaphorical cornered dog with few options remaining but to bite. There's also parallels to be drawn from the lead-up to the French Revolution.

The underclass today is cornered. Many grew up hearing of a world where someone with a high school education, good health, faith, and a work ethic could go out and get a good job, buy a home, and raise a family. Today, these traits are of little value and afford them few opportunities in the 21st century global service economy.

Most of the key sticking points politically tie back to this opportunity loss: globalization, immigration, income inequality, lack of 'good jobs', and so on. They read about how our society is wealthier than ever while they endure the second straight decade (if not longer) of economic stagnation in their community. They struggle to put food on the table while upper society ignores them to discuss gender pronouns and saving sea turtles. Sprinkle on the march of cultural and demographic changes on top of all these other stressors and it's certainly possible we'll have a revolt because cornered and threatened dogs tend to bite.

If a war is to happen, I anticipate the flashpoint to come from the underclass, not the grumpy old man who yells at his TV or refuses to wear a mask.
The American Revolution was more of civil war than is popularly remembered. A lot of Americans were attacking each other. Not everyone was a Patriot, not even a majority was. In the process of prosecuting the war, the Americans ended up paying more taxes than they ever did under Britain because the States had to pay for the war somehow. They faced terrible inflation / deflation of their currency, and after the war there was major unrest.

So that might be an even more apt comparison than you intended.
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Old 05-27-2022, 05:40 PM
 
30,902 posts, read 36,980,033 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Take a History Class View Post
I think to some extent there is always a geographical element to civil wars, and one of the things that I find most disturbing is the great sort that's currently occurring in the United States. As much as I welcome conservatives from blue states moving into my red one, it takes away a moderating influence from their original locale. As blue states become bluer and red states redder, I think civil war becomes more of a possibility. Add to that other societal changes wrought by Covid and then the convulsions caused by the inflationary economy we're in and well...none of that helps.
Yes, I agree.

There was actually a book written around 2007 called The Big Sort that stated exactly what you did. It was written by a liberal journalist type named Bill Bishop, but despite his differing politics, he still recognized the danger. He also mentioned in the book that when people who live with others who think the same way they do, they become more extreme in their views. And that trend has continued since the book was published.

Last edited by mysticaltyger; 05-27-2022 at 05:58 PM..
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Old 05-27-2022, 05:44 PM
 
30,902 posts, read 36,980,033 times
Reputation: 34541
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
How about a summary of an hour and a half video?
I think the first half hour gives you enough. It's important to listen to the whole thing for context.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
35% chance within what time frame? What are the factors driving such a high conclusion?
I can't remember exactly...I'd say the next 10 to 15 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Fought between who? There seems to be a huge fascination with civil war in this country because you know this one time it happened.

And it’s hard to take this “interview” serious when it’s filmed of some guy with a bunch of various action figures behind him…
I think the video is worth listening to. If you don't want to take the time, then just admit it.

Don't just diss someone because you don't like the video background. Either listen or don't. But don't be lazy and start dissing something you haven't even bothered to listen to.
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Old 05-27-2022, 05:47 PM
 
30,902 posts, read 36,980,033 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
35% is not a lot.
Maybe, not to you. But it is to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
This country needs more to ensure the right policies are enacted.
The problem is there's more and more disagreement on what the "right" policies are.

And there's so much corruption, it doesn't even matter if we could agree on them because there is a near complete lack of reasonably effective implementation.
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Old 05-27-2022, 05:52 PM
 
30,902 posts, read 36,980,033 times
Reputation: 34541
Quote:
Originally Posted by id77 View Post
Most of the key sticking points politically tie back to this opportunity loss: globalization, immigration, income inequality, lack of 'good jobs', and so on. They read about how our society is wealthier than ever while they endure the second straight decade (if not longer) of economic stagnation in their community. They struggle to put food on the table while upper society ignores them to discuss gender pronouns and saving sea turtles. Sprinkle on the march of cultural and demographic changes on top of all these other stressors and it's certainly possible we'll have a revolt because cornered and threatened dogs tend to bite.
He indirectly touched on this in the video to some extent.
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Old 05-28-2022, 02:55 AM
 
1,655 posts, read 776,757 times
Reputation: 2042
I enjoyed listening to the video.
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