Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 05-26-2022, 10:03 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,075 posts, read 7,256,324 times
Reputation: 17146

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by ddeemo View Post
Where do you get 100% more - the data from the FRED shows the US average housing prices increased about 37% ($313K 19Q1 to $428.7K 22Q1) and price index increased about 21% (129.8 19Q1 to 157.5 22Q1). In high cost areas, housing prices went up less, the FRED tracks CA separately and it went from $646.6 19Q1 to $838.8 22Q1 - a little less than 30% increase.

Much of the activity was upsizing where buyers applied prior gains to the purchase, reducing the portion that was financed - no added income may have been needed to get a more expensive house. The data from the FRED shows a significant decrease in % of income used for mortgage debt service to the lowest level since the data was first collected in 1980 (under 4%) - so shows even with the price increases, housing was more affordable.

I am retired - my "fixed" income increased significantly though, with significant increases in COLA adding to pension and SS and about 70% in market gains adding to withdrawal rate even with the recent downturn. I could easily buy a house in almost every area of the country at current rates but already have several, not really looking currently.
Oh well isn't that bully for you!

It's a 100% increase in my entire state. There is nowhere I can drive to get out of this. Not that driving is a good idea at these gas prices. Everywhere I've interviewed lately has had double increases or close to it since pre-covid.

I have more cash than I ever dreamed 8 years ago but ironically a house is more out of reach now than then.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-26-2022, 11:20 PM
 
956 posts, read 511,871 times
Reputation: 1015
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Oh well isn't that bully for you!

It's a 100% increase in my entire state. There is nowhere I can drive to get out of this. Not that driving is a good idea at these gas prices. Everywhere I've interviewed lately has had double increases or close to it since pre-covid.

I have more cash than I ever dreamed 8 years ago but ironically a house is more out of reach now than then.
Yeah I feel for you. Who would have ever thought just 12 shirt years ago or even 10 years ago that you could accumulate cash and a house would be more out of reach.

Most economists and everyone believed housing prices would be flat for at least 5+ years in 2010-2011 and even most of 2012. Unfortunately and sadly they were not just wrong but beyond wrong with what happened especially now. I think many economists then thought 2022-2025 was when prices in nominal dollar terms would be back at 2005-2006 levels, not way way higher. Hard to believe that is what most thought given how things turned out sadly.

It was a special time when you could save for a house and know that home would cost close to the same years later and the thought it ay be a decade of flat prices. Never came to pass and it would be cool for our future people one day when we have such a period again.

Well we kind of did from 1950 to 2000, but run away inflation of the 1970s through early 1980s destroyed ability to save for a house as housing went yup fast but so did everything else then. If inflation was very low the whole time from 1950 to 2000, home prices were mostly flat with it on national average.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 01:08 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
6,913 posts, read 3,389,625 times
Reputation: 8629
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Oh well isn't that bully for you!

It's a 100% increase in my entire state. There is nowhere I can drive to get out of this. Not that driving is a good idea at these gas prices. Everywhere I've interviewed lately has had double increases or close to it since pre-covid.

I have more cash than I ever dreamed 8 years ago but ironically a house is more out of reach now than then.
Those were not my statistics, they are the official data compiled by the Feds - why keeping up a false narrative - show proof that ANY state has had 100% increase in the entire state in the last 3 years (I don't believe it is true). Try reality instead of making up false data.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 03:41 AM
 
Location: Spain
12,722 posts, read 7,592,302 times
Reputation: 22639
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Oh well isn't that bully for you!

It's a 100% increase in my entire state.
You're in California, right? According to Zillow for all homes sales in California:

April 2019 = 551k
April 2022 = 790k

What am I missing here where it is 100%, that looks more like under 50% than 100%. Is there some other source for home sale prices you're using?

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 07:47 AM
 
7,899 posts, read 3,872,973 times
Reputation: 14891
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Basically everyone who has bought during the run-up. The wages jobs pay do not justify these prices.
For many purchasers, wages/current income is irrelevant. A home is acquired as a simple transfer of asset class.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,075 posts, read 7,256,324 times
Reputation: 17146
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
You're in California, right? According to Zillow for all homes sales in California:

April 2019 = 551k
April 2022 = 790k

What am I missing here where it is 100%, that looks more like under 50% than 100%. Is there some other source for home sale prices you're using?
I'm in Oregon and comparing more to 2017-18 than 19. Prices were rising in '19 although there was at least some justification for it at that point.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,075 posts, read 7,256,324 times
Reputation: 17146
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddeemo View Post
Those were not my statistics, they are the official data compiled by the Feds - why keeping up a false narrative - show proof that ANY state has had 100% increase in the entire state in the last 3 years (I don't believe it is true). Try reality instead of making up false data.
Yeah the rural areas with like 4k people and no jobs have only risen by 70%.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Spain
12,722 posts, read 7,592,302 times
Reputation: 22639
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
I'm in Oregon and comparing more to 2017-18 than 19. Prices were rising in '19 although there was at least some justification for it at that point.
Oh sorry, you said something that implied the last three years:

Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Did people suddenly start making 100% more salary than 3 years ago? Because I sure didn't.
Oregon, all values for April via https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/

2017 = 331k
2020 = 383k

2019 = 369k
2022 = 581k

I just don't see it man. What three years, Oregon hasn't had a 100% gain even looking back five years. What source are you using?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,075 posts, read 7,256,324 times
Reputation: 17146
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Oh sorry, you said something that implied the last three years:



Oregon, all values for April via https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/

2017 = 331k
2020 = 383k

2019 = 369k
2022 = 581k

I just don't see it man. What three years, Oregon hasn't had a 100% gain even looking back five years. What source are you using?
The actual prices of the houses I owned.

House #1 - paid $130k 2014. Current Zillow value $376k.
House #2 - paid $370k 2017. Current Zillow value $715k.

Perhaps what's skewing the state numbers is that this doubling has happened at the lower end. Properties that were high value before the run-up have gone up, but not as dramatically. What's been eliminated is that entry and low-mid level tiers. It's as if on a car lot, they took out all the Toyotas and all that was left were the Lexuses. So now people are paying more for a 5 year used Lexus with 50k miles than they would have paid new 5 years ago. (in fact this seems to have indeed happened with cars)

For example at the time I bought house #2, there was a mansion not far away for sale at the same time for 1.6M, and they had to reduce it to 1.3M to sell it. Current Zillow estimate is 2.8M but I suspect that with the current interest rates it wouldn't sell for that much.

Something else probably skewing the numbers is absurdly low inventory. We actually have quite a lot of inventory in the 1.0M+ range and I've been seeing those prices drop. Again I suspect interest rates have priced out buyers in that range. Looking in the <650k range there are just not many available at all. Entire neighborhoods where I was shopping in 2014 or 17 & looked at multiple units have zero properties for sale.

Last edited by redguard57; 05-27-2022 at 01:15 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-27-2022, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Spain
12,722 posts, read 7,592,302 times
Reputation: 22639
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
The actual prices of the houses I owned.

House #1 - paid $130k 2014. Current Zillow value $376k.
House #2 - paid $370k 2017. Current Zillow value $715k.
Ahh so when you said 100% the last three years in your state you actually meant 2014-2022 (8 years) for one specific house, or 2017-2022 (5 years) for another specific house.

Thanks for clearing that up, I totally get it.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top