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Old 05-25-2022, 11:57 AM
 
2,289 posts, read 1,593,962 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
My comments were to those who were commenting about the two time frames being the same in terms of mortgages, the business is completely different. I don’t need your data
WOW! Disregarding current stats won't make it change or go away. Numbers don't lie. People do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Where I am is irrelevant because you are trying to argue something I wasn’t discussing, you quoted me and engaged on a different topic that what I was talking about. I’m in banking/finance, I’m well aware of the mortgage business, how it was and how it is now. I wasn’t discussing bubbles, real estate pricing or anything else
So if you are not in the trenches with realtors and wholesale lenders your understanding has limits and assumptions.

You said mortgages today are not remotely close as to what was offered back from 2002 to 2007.
WAMU, Countrywide, IndyMac etc.
All that's missing are zero down stated income and neg-am pick your payment. It's about 80% the same as it was back then.
Pro Tip: Most execs and upper mgmt in loan syndication said nothing was wrong back then too.

You are aware that non-qm loans are a growing segment and there are serious flaws or the investor pool would not have priced these as very risky from January onward. From 3.5% to 6.5% rates. C'mon. The Fed's 200 bps promise doesn't do that alone. Yes, they're risky because the investors know each loan has a lot of questions they overlooked when housing prices just kept going up. Doesn't that's sound similar to 2005-2007?
Wall Street firms may not be offering mortgages like back then but they (private equity) are buying up hundreds or thousands of SFRs and multifamily properties for a rental business and appreciation, right? That is not remotely similar to back then, so you're correct there. But this new style of investing inflates the market.

I'll trust what I've seen presently, my 2000s experience, and what VPs of large national wholesale lending companies see today. You know in banking and finance that there's always a program not advertised for high net worth borrowers. We have to teach rookies to stop saying that doesn't exist anymore because of this law. Please. This is the USA. If there's demand it is available, period. They just called it something else although it's basically identical.

We still have:
- 20% stated income. I know who those players are in CA, FL, and TX since 2013 even when Dodd-Frank was in effect.
- no doc (no job & no employment) investor loans based on rents and credit score only.
- 10% down bank statement loans; there's concerns with these loans. Just ask others
.- multifamily lending has really become aggressive, especially LTVs, and is overbuilt in general no matter what an EIS or city planner report says. This is a good thing because rents will come down fast.

Last edited by frankrj; 05-25-2022 at 12:54 PM..
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Old 05-25-2022, 01:04 PM
 
26,198 posts, read 21,675,770 times
Reputation: 22772
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
WOW! Disregarding current stats won't make it change or go away. Numbers don't lie. People do.

So if you are not in the trenches with realtors and wholesale lenders your understanding has limits and assumptions.
Being in the trenches with realtors is meaningless to me. I’ve made no comments about the real estate market or valuations. I’ve involved more than enough in mortgages and other aspects of lending to know the lending side is no where near the same was it was leading up to 07-09

Again just so you can reply with another two page response

Here was my comment
Quote:
If you think there’s no real difference between mortgage financing leading up to 07-09 and now you are clueless.
It’s accurate. I’m more in contact with high net worth individuals than by far most on real estate or the mortgage business folks are. . The mortgage business now is no where near like it was, not even close.
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Old 05-25-2022, 01:57 PM
 
3,359 posts, read 1,742,750 times
Reputation: 6302
Watched the 60mins Special about housing bubble. There are many RE groups that took advantage of the super low interest rates and just went on a buying spree of homes and converted them to rentals. If you're shopping for a home you're basically competing with deeper pockets driving up the prices. It's the same as stocks with retail vs institutional buyers driving up the prices.

The only way to fix this would be deep painful recession that causes people to flee rentals for companies like them and Zillow to get their butt kicked.
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Old 05-25-2022, 02:05 PM
 
2,289 posts, read 1,593,962 times
Reputation: 3878
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Being in the trenches with realtors is meaningless to me. I’ve made no comments about the real estate market or valuations. I’ve involved more than enough in mortgages and other aspects of lending to know the lending side is no where near the same was it was leading up to 07-09

Again just so you can reply with another two page response

Here was my comment


It’s accurate. I’m more in contact with high net worth individuals than by far most on real estate or the mortgage business folks are. . The mortgage business now is no where near like it was, not even close.
Your opinion is duly noted.

Good on ya'. I will do a 3 page response next time because your world collides with reality.
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Old 05-25-2022, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Queen Maud Land
14 posts, read 7,623 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Is that a bubble? Or do people value housing enough to bid up prices?
Toronto's housing prices are completely unrealistic. However, the supply is constantly being outstripped by demand. In any economic scenario, this means increased costs. Unless that trend is reversed where we see more supply than demand, prices will continue to increase no matter what anyone has to say about it.

Prices will fluctuate as different market factors affect the amount of demand, but I think you are gravely mistaken if you think the prices are going to crash down to sub-$300,000 levels.

Remember: The market cares not whether YOU can afford a house as long as SOMEONE can afford a house, and right now there are a lot more sombodies than there are houses.
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Old 05-25-2022, 02:47 PM
 
26,198 posts, read 21,675,770 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
Your opinion is duly noted.

Good on ya'. I will do a 3 page response next time because your world collides with reality.
I’m living in reality and the mortgage market today is no where near where it was 07-09 and leading up to it. Nowhere near it, that’s reality despite your pages of writing
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Old 05-25-2022, 03:05 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,076 posts, read 7,275,915 times
Reputation: 17151
Yeah the problem now is not loans given to people who can't afford them. With unemployment at 3.6% we are in labor shortage so anyone who wants a job can have one.

The problem now is everyone is stretched to the limit of the % of income toward housing they are paying.

The issue this time will be if there's a recession & people lose their jobs. Suddenly they won't be able to make their mortgages that were half their former income.
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Old 05-25-2022, 03:14 PM
 
2,289 posts, read 1,593,962 times
Reputation: 3878
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
I’m living in reality and the mortgage market today is no where near where it was 07-09 and leading up to it. Nowhere near it, that’s reality despite your pages of writing
I thought you love reading and criticizing everyone. Don't let the pages of truth change your view. It might just open your mind instead of keeping it closed. Then again facts and recognizing patterns "from experience" tend to do that.
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Old 05-25-2022, 03:19 PM
 
26,198 posts, read 21,675,770 times
Reputation: 22772
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
I thought you love reading and criticizing everyone. Don't let the pages of truth change your view. It might just open your mind instead of keeping it closed. Then again facts and recognizing patterns "from experience" tend to do that.
Just because you type a lot doesn’t mean it increases the likelihood you change my mind. The mortgage market is not anywhere like it was. Maybe you should be better at your job if you think the two time periods are the same
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Old 05-25-2022, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
6,913 posts, read 3,405,818 times
Reputation: 8630
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine607 View Post
No not saying that at all. What we should have is the gold standard. No QE, no less than 20% down mortgaging. No HELOCs/people using homes as piggy banks. No handing out money like it grows on trees in Stimulus checks

Have those things and economy does not overheat with worker shortage. In such case, people actually have to work gto find a job and take what they can get and thus no shortage at restaurants or oil refineries.

If what I said above was true and we still had shortage of restaurant workers and oil refinery and the like workers just because people refuses to do it or whatever reason, than that is just economics and oh well.

But the FED super easy money policy as well as helicopter checks and easy money little down mortgaging needs to stop and should have been halted long long long ago!!
Going on a gold standard would be a joke - there have been 187,000 Metric tons of gold mined so far in the some 6000 years mining it - at current prices, a metric ton is worth about $60M or about $11.2 T in total - problem is that there is about $20 T dollars world wide on the books so even if every speck of gold ever mined was held in reserve - including all lost at sea, all jewelry, all out of electronics, aerospace and teeth fillings plus all owned by other countries - even then, it would only cover half.

Also shortages at oil refineries or restaurant workers is often due to influences other than economics - a true open market would resolve shortages.
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