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Old 06-19-2022, 03:56 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,404 posts, read 14,355,785 times
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Quote:
Could the 2019 economy have continued if the pandemic had not happened?
The effects of the policy direction on the economy on US soil since the early/mid-1990s culminated in the 2008-2009 housing finance debacle. Since then, potential growth has shrunk and the labor participation rate has flagged.

In the aftermath of the chaos of 2020-2021, looking forward to 2023 and beyond, Fed forecasters are calling for the same sort of anemic growth rates and inflation.

In that sense, the answer to your question is yes.

We don’t know the outcome of the current war between western-based globalists and the large independent countries of Eurasia and whatever allies they can gather in Africa and the southern Americas.

If global supply chains of the 1990s-2019 period are not restored and/or enhanced, we may experience a relatively long period of high inflation amid back-stepping structural adjustment in the (former?) globalist west.

Either way, economic growth potential on US soil will remain anemic for the foreseeable future.

By the way, this is the benign scenario.

I can imagine other scenarios in which 1/3 to 2/3 of the human population could be wiped out, at varying speeds.

Good Luck!
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Old 06-19-2022, 09:04 AM
 
4,952 posts, read 3,082,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
As usual, you don't listen very well and you continue to engage in conspiratorial thinking.
Please allow me to add this gem of a vid, as I do feel he is spot on here; and thread topic related.
Conspiracy?, no; but certainly usury on interest rates/student loans:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrSzxGsinZg
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Old 06-19-2022, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,075 posts, read 7,272,560 times
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While I don't agree with conspiracies, the Fed DID indicate during covid it was willing to buy equities to keep the markets from crashing.

They will do anything to prevent another 1929. Probably a good thing, given that 1929 led to WWII amd mqssive worldwide suffering.

There is definitely a political component to this. The Fed is a useful hedge against left wing politics. Anybody who wants any kind of New Deal type politics kinda needs the status quo to fall apart or at least suffer serious injury.
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Old 06-19-2022, 11:42 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
7,658 posts, read 4,636,594 times
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There were cracks starting to show in the economy in 2019. You may recall that, after being unsuccessful in her attempts to unwind acquired debt, the Federal Reserve started actively buying debt again in the 2nd half of 2019, before covid. Something was wrong with the bond markets. Nothing to push us over yet, but the buildup was started.
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Old 06-20-2022, 10:22 AM
 
8,228 posts, read 3,436,843 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avondalist View Post
The economic expansion was already long in the tooth in 2019. The pandemic and our responses to it are in retrospect what caused inflation to get out of control, bringing an end to the Great Moderation that started forty years ago.

However interest rates had bottomed out in 2019 as well. This is really a question about the possibilities on the economic frontier. Could the economic expansion have continued had we not overdone our response to the pandemic, or was the pandemic simply the catalyst for the end of forty years of declining interest rates? If it had not been the pandemic, would another catalyst have had the same effect? Or would we have tried NIRP to keep the economy going?

I know any answer is speculation as this is a counterfactual, but the posters on this forum might have some good arguments to answer the question.
We were heading for a financial crisis in 2019, before the pandemic started. Anything could have triggered what's happening now.

The Fed's QE from 2008 meant ever more QE would be needed to keep the bubbles inflated.
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Old 06-20-2022, 06:41 PM
 
3,600 posts, read 1,801,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tickyul View Post
Sure, probably!

But then the question becomes, what happens if the highly-manipulated
economy is allowed to "build steam" for an additional 5 or so year before
a dramatic deflation occurs?
Deflation gets a bad rep. The lower and middle class is the biggest beneficiary of affordable markets and a strong dollar. The billionaire class wants asset prices to stay elevated and are so broadly invested they strongly prefer inflation.

No way deflation occurs any time soon though. Wages are too strong, the dollar is too weak, too much money in circulation, supply issues.
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Old 06-20-2022, 06:48 PM
 
18,873 posts, read 8,524,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
Deflation gets a bad rep. The lower and middle class is the biggest beneficiary of affordable markets and a strong dollar. The billionaire class wants asset prices to stay elevated and are so broadly invested they strongly prefer inflation.

No way deflation occurs any time soon though. Wages are too strong, the dollar is too weak, too much money in circulation, supply issues.
Deflation deserves its bad rep. Loss of jobs is the biggie.

No one likes working knowing they will be paid less the next year.

No business owner or stock holder enjoys knowing they will sell and earn less next year.

The rich don't like inflation one bit. Look what it does to the stock markets.

We currently have a strong dollar. And of course inflation.
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Old 06-20-2022, 07:24 PM
 
3,600 posts, read 1,801,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
Deflation deserves its bad rep. Loss of jobs is the biggie.

No one likes working knowing they will be paid less the next year.

No business owner or stock holder enjoys knowing they will sell and earn less next year.

The rich don't like inflation one bit. Look what it does to the stock markets.

We currently have a strong dollar. And of course inflation.
We do not have a strong dollar, we have nearly double digit inflation. It’s incredibly weak. I was at the gas station and the guy in front of me dropped a dollar saw it drop and didn’t bother picking it up. The USD index is highly flawed.
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Old 06-20-2022, 08:45 PM
 
18,873 posts, read 8,524,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
We do not have a strong dollar, we have nearly double digit inflation. It’s incredibly weak. I was at the gas station and the guy in front of me dropped a dollar saw it drop and didn’t bother picking it up. The USD index is highly flawed.
Yes we have too much inflation right now. But the whole world is inflating, and that is a big reason the dollar is still strong and that favors import business.
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Old 06-21-2022, 11:33 AM
 
3,600 posts, read 1,801,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
Yes we have too much inflation right now. But the whole world is inflating, and that is a big reason the dollar is still strong and that favors import business.
Inflation ranges widely from country to country, 8.6% is on the high end, not many countries with worse inflation than us right now.
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