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Old 05-24-2008, 06:16 PM
 
655 posts, read 781,783 times
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I believe we are in for some ugly times energy wise. However, I wonder if it will be as bad as many here are predicting. $12-$15 although possible given a sequence of unlikely scenarios, will not happen in my opinion. Why? Because nobody will pay for it, ever, because nobody can afford it. If it really went to $12-$15 per gallon, people would just sit and go nowehere. The country would stop. So this is not likely in my opinion as demand would cease by about 90% and the price would have to fall.

I see gas settling between $5-$7, with even this having dire affects economically. I'm a realist, but I see bad things ahead.

I've seen many here predicting everything from $1.80 by summers end to $20.00. Lets have some real predictions here. What is your prediction and why?
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Old 05-24-2008, 06:55 PM
 
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Gasoline prices get the headlines because that is what most Americans drive on, but a better question is what diesel prices are going to do. As an oil company friend said to me, "The US drives on gasoline, but the economy runs on diesel fuel."

Today, diesel is well over $4.00-$4.50/gallon just about everywhere in the US, gasoline at around $3.80-$3.90 average. The central question is what price per gallon will cause enough demand destruction--meaning people or businesses simply quit using fuel because they can't afford it anymore--to curtail consumption enough to cause prices to fall. $6.00/gallon would probably do it for diesel--and would likely force the US into a steep recession, if not depression. I think it very likely that diesel could easily go over $5.00 by mid-summer, and could top $6.00 by winter, when heating oil demands start competing for the middle-distillate feedstocks used for both diesel and heating oil.

I think $5.00+ gasoline easily could be possible by mid-summer, but I think demand destruction could keep it from going much higher--at least for the time being.

All of that assumes that there is no supply disruptions caused by political unrest in oil-producing countries, terrorist attacks on oil infrastructure, or hurricanes or other natural disasters that affect oil supplies, transportation, or refining. If any one of those events were to occur, prices could quickly head higher to unprecedented levels that would likely wreak havoc to the economy. I think the likelihood of one or more supply-disrupting events within the next 12 months are probably 50% or better.

I think the ONLY thing that would cause any significant and lasting decline in prices over the next 1-10 years would be an economic depression big enough to cause significant world-wide demand destruction. Otherwise, the trend is going to be up.
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Old 05-24-2008, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,651,642 times
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My guess would be that gas prices get up to around $5 in the summer and then come down to around $3.50 after the summer. I would be surprised if prices went much above $5 or below $3, at least in the next 1-2 years.
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Old 05-24-2008, 08:02 PM
 
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
6,561 posts, read 16,184,959 times
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I see prices going to $5 by Labor Day, and then dropping slightly to around $4.50 afterwards. I have no guess about the longer term. Of course, this assumes no supply disruptions, like a hurricane, civil war in Saudi Arabia (!), etc.
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Old 05-24-2008, 08:08 PM
 
655 posts, read 781,783 times
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All we heard from the left was the Iaqi war was for oil. God how I now wish that were right! Seriously though, isn't it about time we start lining up our tankers over there in Iraq to pay for some of the cost of this war? I was thinking $10 a barrel for light sweet crude ought to do it.
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Old 05-25-2008, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,746,995 times
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$5 by 4th
$7 by Christmas
$10 by next memorial day
$20 by memorial day 2010, if we can still get gas at that point
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Old 05-25-2008, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,700,688 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
My guess would be that gas prices get up to around $5 in the summer and then come down to around $3.50 after the summer. I would be surprised if prices went much above $5 or below $3, at least in the next 1-2 years.
I would agree with this except I would say in the next 3-4 years. I am too much a believer in the market spurring innovation to jump on the $7+ bandwagon. I also believe that we are hitting a point where demand will start to fall significantly.

The good news about these prices ($3-5) is that they are high enough to justify continuing research into alternatives and low enough not to crash the economy.
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Old 05-25-2008, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 22,409,685 times
Reputation: 3587
July 4th $4.00
Labour day $3.90
Election Day $3.15
Thankgiving $3.00
Christmas $2.80
Easter 2009 $3.10
Memorial Day 2009 $4.05
July 4th 2009 $4.25
New Years Day 2010 $4.50
New Years Day 2015 $6.00
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Old 05-25-2008, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
4,739 posts, read 7,794,695 times
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I see it getting so high that when you go in the store to pay you have to push past the crowd bumming change to get through the door. I investigated a home on the market here to see what the heat bill was before I put in an offer and found out it was on oil heat, it had a 1000 gallon tank and was around $5000 to fill it and heated the home almost 3 months....lol
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Old 03-22-2010, 12:53 PM
 
1 posts, read 8,029 times
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$5 by 4th
$7 by Christmas
$10 by next memorial day
$20 by memorial day 2010, if we can still get gas at that point

No way. Look. All these posts are wrong. Gas is still $2.80 in the DC Metropolitan Area
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