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1) Way too many bearish sentiment out there. Everyone is calling for a retest of the lows.
2) Inflation has peaked and going down.
3) No recession anywhere in sight with people calling for a shallow recession at worst.
4) Job market is still at full employment.
5) Interest rates are stabilizing.
6) Housing markets are stable in most markets and still up from a year or two ago. Nothing like a great recession crash people were calling for.
7) China is opening back up
8) The situation in Ukraine at least doesn't look like its going to get worse or lead to nuclear war.
Stock market has crashed and seems to be on track to crash even more in 2023
Bonds funds have been decimated
Housing has started to crack
Yet prices keep rising...
At least in the 2008 bust prices fell, rents declined, hotels and travel were cheap... There was deflation so while things were bad affordability improved.
Now cost of living is skyrocketing but the economy is going to the dogs, is this going to end?
Apparently car repossessions are increasing from people not able to repay the monthly payment.
WASHINGTON — A growing number of consumers are falling behind on their car payments, a trend financial analysts fear will continue, in a sign of the strain soaring car prices and prolonged inflation are having on household budgets.*
Repossessions tumbled at the start of the pandemic when Americans got a boost from stimulus checks and lenders were more willing to accommodate those behind on their payments. But in recent months, the number of people behind on their car payments has been approaching prepandemic levels, and for the lowest-income consumers, the rate of loan defaults is now exceeding where it was in 2019, according to data from ratings agency Fitch.
Industry analysts worry the trend is only going to continue into 2023 with economists expecting unemployment to rise, inflation to remain relatively high and household savings set to dwindle. At the same time, a growing number of consumers are having to stretch their budgets to afford a vehicle; the average monthly payment for a new car is up 26% since 2019 to $718 a month, and nearly one in six new car buyers is spending more than $1,000 a month on vehicles. Other costs associated with owning a car have also shot up, including insurance, gas and repairs.
The countrys debt is screwed. No statistic can sugar coat it.
Sovereign Debts of nations around the world are over extended.
Last time this happened, We had World Wars to reset everything.
We have more job openings then we have people willing to work
What is the quality (meaning paycheck) of those job openings that are unfilled is my question.
Some underemployed people may wonder what a potential job has to offer going forward--is it a longterm job and worth their effort (cost of childcare, transportation, etc) after expenses deducted.
What is the quality (meaning paycheck) of those job openings that are unfilled is my question.
Some underemployed people may wonder what a potential job has to offer going forward--is it a longterm job and worth their effort (cost of childcare, transportation, etc) after expenses deducted.
Pay is above what those positions are typically worth..
On the sales end one can earn multiple 6 figures …there are engineering openings , purchasing , warehouse, drivers , etc
If everyone goes into a knee-jerk cutback on spending and reinvestment in low-risk bonds, we will have an economic downturn on our hands. Turn off the barking doom and gloom types on tv/social media. Realize over time the economy has its highs and lows but always rebounds. If you're of an advanced age your investments should be very low risk anyway.
And realize that the last 20 years, the economy was propped up by funny money.
Notice the highs coincide with the fed being dovish and lows, hawkish.
Can it continue and "always rebound"? Only time will tell if the fed will reverse course and begin easy monetary policy.
And realize that the last 20 years, the economy was propped up by funny money.
Notice the highs coincide with the fed being dovish and lows, hawkish.
Can it continue and "always rebound"? Only time will tell if the fed will reverse course and begin easy monetary policy.
We have had many fed increases over the last 20 years .
Sometimes markets went down when they raised rates and sometimes they went up .
There is more to it then just fed action
.
Fed cut rates 13 times from 2000 to 2003 and markets fell
Fed cut rates 10 times from 2007 to 2008 and markets fell .
Fed raised rates 9 times from 2015 to 2018 and markets went up
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