"Inflation is over." (funds, increase, reserve, price)

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by LINative

I don't know, I still see things way overpriced in the stores compared to a few years ago but I am no expert on the economy.

And you are still seeing shortages and signs saying "this product is in high demand limit 4" or something like that.

The trucking industry has 2 terms: Tight economy and loose economy.

In a "loose economy" there are way more trucks than there are goods to haul.

In a "tight economy" there are way more goods than there are trucks to haul it."

A "tight economy" can lead to Demand-pull Inflation, which is what you have been experiencing for some time know.

There are two major issues.

At the Texas border, truck traffic is stalled with delays.

Why? Well, a few months back someone found a truck trailer in the desert full of dead illegals.

The Media did not blame the Hiden Administration and instead blamed Governor Abbott (R) in spite of the fact that States are not responsible for border security or immigration. If Abbott had been a Democrat, it's unsure who the Media would have blamed.

To make sure Abbott doesn't get wrongfully blamed for another similar incident, he has ordered a search of all trucks entering Texas.

Yes, that is legal. The Supreme Court ruled decades ago you can conduct a warrant-less search of all persons and vehicles entering or exiting any facility or area provided the search is 100% of all persons/vehicles entering/exiting the same.

There is also a major slow-down on the Canadian border.

The Canadian government requires all truck drivers to obtain an on-line certificate.

Unfortunately, the Canadian government did not bother to tell anyone.

Most of the major cartage companies are now aware that drivers need to take this free on-line course to get a certificate, but there are still 10s of 1,000s of independent truck drivers who are not aware.

The second issue is the Canadian government requires a CDC vaccine card to enter Canada and the majority of truck drivers refuse to get vaccinated so they cannot enter Canada.

For those of you wondering why car dealerships have little to no new cars to sell, now you know.

A number of cars are manufactured in Canada for sale in the US. Canada also has a number of parts manufacturers who make parts for use in cars built at US facilities.

Now you know why Ford and others have had rolling short-term lay-offs here and there. It doesn't make sense to pay workers to stand around staring at robots doing nothing all day.

Most of the container ships have been off-loaded so there's only a small back-log at ports.

Unfortunately, those containers are still sitting in staging areas because you don't have enough truck drivers to haul them.

If you're an independent owner-operator, you're raking in the dough, because it's a truckers' market and it's "you pay me what I want or suck it."

The market will correct itself eventually, but for now everyone just has to deal with it.

[Lincolnian]

I am concerned the Fed's goal of softening the labor market is not going to solve the root cause of much of the inflation, that is a labor shortage. If you don't have enough people to make, ship, and service products and provide services how is reducing the number of people currently doing those jobs going to improve the situation?

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by Lincolnian

I am concerned the Fed's goal of softening the labor market is not going to solve the root cause of much of the inflation, that is a labor shortage. If you don't have enough people to make, ship, and service products and provide services how is reducing the number of people currently doing those jobs going to improve the situation?

By reducing demand.

Don't work = don't get paid = can't afford those products and services.

Generally, in a free market (unlike China) the least productive workers get axed first. So you damage demand more than supply when you tighten the job market.

Of course, the FED is fighting an uphill battle with the market radically distorted from all the government big money giveaways.

Inflation is going strong--especially at the supermarket and places that really matter. It will far overshoot the market response. People will lose their jobs and they won't be able to afford basic necessities, all because we dumped hundreds of billions on them to buy iphones and trucks in a knee-jerk reaction to an artificial market blip caused by pandemic shutdowns in 2020.

Good news for all the rich folks out there is that luxury goods warehouses are filling up as the proles can no longer afford the financing on their debts. If you've got cash saved up and fancy a new car or rolex, now is the time.

[2Navigate]

Originally Posted by Lincolnian

I am concerned the Fed's goal of softening the labor market is not going to solve the root cause of much of the inflation, that is a labor shortage. If you don't have enough people to make, ship, and service products and provide services how is reducing the number of people currently doing those jobs going to improve the situation?

I'm thinking the same. While the world is occupied blaming covid and the crisis in Ukarine (which are and have been the disrupting things), we all know that baby boomers can't be replaced fast enough. That was the issue before all this mess.

I don't know what it all means, but if the Fed is waiting for higher unemployment to curtail inflation, it won't happen any time soon. We simply have and will have even more openings in future, due to an entire cohort of people retiring.

[osu1978]

All I know is that the Fed will seriously ********** situation up. Print money > inflation > raise rates > crush economy > deflation > back to printing again.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by osu1978

All I know is that the Fed will seriously ********** situation up. Print money > inflation > raise rates > crush economy > deflation > back to printing again.

Congress votes to create new money supply, Treasury executes, the Fed determines the price, supervises the payments system (banks), and collects data for modeling and other purposes.

Often, too often, the executive branch pressures the Fed to lower the cost of money.

Seems that Powell has more backbone than Bernanke or Yellen.

For some 30 years the US economy experienced disinflation and low inflation in consumer goods because of exploitation of near-slave labor in China and cheap credit domestically. That low-lying fruit has already been picked for the most part and it is unlikely to grow back, so to speak, certainly not at the same rate.

Just a guess, inflation could stabilize around 3%, maybe sometime in 2024, then fluctuate around that.

I don’t recall any deflation. When was that year-on-year?

[mkpunk]

I think that inflation is slowing down. Prices are still going up but not as drastic and not as fast as they were just before Christmas. Hopefully gas prices stay down, but they have shot up about $0.20 again.

[Wile E. Coyote]

It's now over for me because I have changed a bunch of my behaviors.

[lieqiang]

To be honest those sticky note prices don't seem that unreasonable, a pack of them for $1.38 you aren't going to get many individually wrapped products for much less.

[lieqiang]

Originally Posted by osu1978

Print money > inflation > raise rates > crush economy > deflation > back to printing again.

They have been "printing money" since what 2008?

I remember back then sky-is-falling types were screaming that it would cause inflation, and it didn't. Here we are 15 years later and we finally have inflation, so this time it must be because of printing money? Surely there are additional factors at play.