Interest Rate Guessing Game: What will the Fed do at their March 21-22 meeting? (credit, banks)

[moguldreamer]

Just for fun, let's have an Interest Rate Guessing Game. What will the Fed do at their March 21-22 meeting?

A) Leave rates alone - the SVB shock and the Credit Suisse shock are reverberating through the economy
B) Raise rates by 25 basis points
C) Raise rates by 50 basis points
D) What's "a Fed"?

[Labonte18]

Originally Posted by moguldreamer

Just for fun, let's have an Interest Rate Guessing Game. What will the Fed do at their March 21-22 meeting?

A) Leave rates alone - the SVB shock and the Credit Suisse shock are reverberating through the economy
B) Raise rates by 25 basis points
C) Raise rates by 50 basis points
D) What's "a Fed"?

E) Whatever will screw things up even more

[treasurekidd]

The bank crisis will cause banks to tighten lending, which will dampen demand in a way that interest rate hikes alone could not have done. To the Fed, SIVB was the best thing that could have happened in their battle against inflation. They’ll stay put this month.

[Teak]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

The bank crisis will cause banks to tighten lending, which will dampen demand in a way that interest rate hikes alone could not have done. To the Fed, SIVB was the best thing that could have happened in their battle against inflation. They’ll stay put this month.

Yeah, the Fed will likely pause this month and see how the SVB boondoggle plays out. They had been aggressive in raising rates -rightfully so- but it is starting to hurt some of the well-connected and there must be a lot of behind-the-scenes bellyaching and threatening.

[TimtheGuy]

I am guessing a pause is in order. But if they decide to keep the hammer down I think 0.25% increase max

[treasurekidd]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

The bank crisis will cause banks to tighten lending, which will dampen demand in a way that interest rate hikes alone could not have done. To the Fed, SIVB was the best thing that could have happened in their battle against inflation. They’ll stay put this month.

I'm changing my vote. While I still believe what I posted above, I now believe we'll get one more .25 and go into "wait and see" mode.

[moguldreamer]

This will be really interesting to see.

Chair Powell has been hammering home they will raise rates to curb inflation regardless of consequences and they will rely upon data.

I'm curious to see if he will blink. My guess is he will not blink.

[Wartrace]

I don't know what they are going to do. I don't think THEY know what to do. I was listening to the latest Macro voices podcast and the guest stated they may even reduce rates by .25 and let inflation run.

[Serious Conversation]

25 basis points or nothing at all. Markets are already skittish.

[txfriend]

With the fear of Banks failing right now, I don't think that they will raise interest.