Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The inflation/deflation debate is tough to call. I really have no idea how it's going to go down. Mish and Schiff both bring up good points. The more I think about it though, the more I lean to a hyperinflation scenario. When foreigners stop financing our debt, where do you think the money is going to come from? The Fed. And government can't operate on money created out of thin air, so they'll print up the money the Fed "loaned" to them and the government will pay on that money with interest. The Creature from Jekyll Island. The audacity of deceit. I wish I could make real money off of loaning out fake money. Crazy isn't it?
I was only on the side of Mish in the sense that hyperinflationary periods can sometimes be preceded by a severe contraction in the physical monetary gauge (the deflationary cycle). If numerous banks fail and people don't have an opportunity to get hard currency, that pool of real physical money contracts. Within this brief epoch, cash is king. Then the foreigners sell their Treasuries in a panic and start using the dollars to buy stuff (as Schiff alluded to), and the government starts printing real money because people are literally starving from a lack of available money to buy necessities (as some might still be waiting for FDIC claims to be fulfilled or otherwise just don't have any real cash). All this new money washing back ashore in addition to the cash generated as a result of entitlement programs begins the hyperinflationary period.
So, one can think of the size of physical cash (and therefore its intrinsic value) as a rubber band of sorts. Possibly contracting on its initial stage of a credit collapse, then expanding seemingly without end in the follow up stage.
In addition, let's not forget what Schiff mentioned about supply. Some believe the supply of our goods will remain fixed. What happens if foreigners stop shipping stuff to us, or at least curtail shipping of imports? The supply of available goods decreases at the same time monetary supply stays fixed or increases. That means goods are more valuable, ergo the value of money decreases. Many deflationary folks look solely at the supply of money, ignoring the available supply of goods.
Put it simply: If we receive 10K tons of fresh fish from China one year, then 5K tons the next year because of higher global demand and the Chinese leaving the dollar for other currencies, what do you think that does to the price of fish?
OK so out of my shear laziness and the fact that similar poster won't give a crap anyways. I decided to totally make my response to your post by Quoting wildstyle's first article she posted.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,482,294 times
Reputation: 1721
More time today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
None of what you posted responds to what I'm talking about. I know perfectly well that people think M3 is important, but I also know perfectly well many economist argue against its predictive value with regards to inflation. Quoting an article that says X doesn't make X true, that much should be obvious.
I'm not trying to suggest you guys should stop claiming such and such about M3 or such and such about inflation, rather don't pretend what you're saying are facts. This is all very theoretical.
OK fair enough. It all very theoretical. And actually even the author of the article said that M3 seem rather antiquated and we need more type of gauges as the concept of money expands. To me though taking away the M3 is like doing astronomy without the Hubble telescope. Yeah you can do it. but the images are not quite as focused and you can see quite as far.
Quote:
I've seen enough of your posts to know this isn't the case, you want to talk back and forth with people that agree with your doom and gloom. If you want to actually learn try reading some great blogs like:
Calculated Risk
I took a look and I'm not that impressed. I already got similar data and theory of the direction of housing and the economy 3 to 6 months before it. This type of post is rather arrogant to assume that we only get our information from city data. Look I my get information and forecast what the future of housing and the economy from other blogs and sources (I.E.) the housing bubble blog created by Ben Jones: The Housing Bubble Blog So to assume that I'm just a doom and gloomer for the fun of it is just plain wrong and rather insulting. My personal pessimistic view of the general economy is based from information gathered from a myriad of sources. And I assume that a few others here on CD are doing the same as me. Just because we come to a different conclusion that you does mean that we are wrong in our forecasts. In fact look at some of my past posts and check to see if I was right in the direction of the economy and housing(I can't hide what I've already posted). While I admit I'm not perfect. I've predicted rather closely to what has happen for the last year or so thanks to great blogs and other sources. In fact I'm even willing to thank you Humanoid for some good links in the past.
what are the negative effects of hyperinflation of the USD on a global level? Do our creditors and others over leveraged in dollars get totally screwed over? Did yall see how other financials around the world when this sub prime bubble popped? Does this lead to a global economic crash? Will this bring about WWIII? Is this how NWO will be established? Is this the final plan of the illuminati? Man, this is going to be fascinating (in a morbid sort of way) to watch over the next few years.
what are the negative effects of hyperinflation of the USD on a global level? Do our creditors and others over leveraged in dollars get totally screwed over? Did yall see how other financials around the world when this sub prime bubble popped? Does this lead to a global economic crash? Will this bring about WWIII? Is this how NWO will be established? Is this the final plan of the illuminati? Man, this is going to be fascinating (in a morbid sort of way) to watch over the next few years.
Partly they might be screwed. But they can use our worthless dollars to buy some of our assets. Anheuser-Busch (in progress), resorts in Aspen/Vail/Park City, Miami beach condos, etc etc.
I already got similar data and theory of the direction of housing and the economy 3 to 6 months before it.
Just to note, my comments were directed at the OP, not you or anybody else. Also, you aren't getting data 3, 6 months before than what is posted on Calculated risk. They post anything important pretty much hours after it is released. Calculated risk is my favorite blog that focuses on the mortgage/housing side of the current economic problems (Which play a big role in the current mess). Many other blogs merely copy content off of CR. Do you know of a better blog (or other source) for such matters?
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,482,294 times
Reputation: 1721
the housing bubble blog
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Calculated risk is my favorite blog that focuses on the mortgage/housing side of the current economic problems (Which play a big role in the current mess). Many other blogs merely copy content off of CR. Do you know of a better blog (or other source) for such matters?
The housing bubble blog in my opinion is the best that I've seen for the for the housing/mortgage mess. And it's not just for the article posted but for the analysis that some of the regular posters give. Granted it's just like City Data you have to take some time and read awhile for you figure out who the good posters are and who are just trolls. Oh and I should warn you that they are doom and gloomers over there. The Housing Bubble Blog
But that only my opinion you and other posters my feel different. Ben Jones also has one for money and metal I'm not as crazy about that blog. And if your not impressed well we will have to agree to disagree on this.
Oh and I should warn you that they are doom and gloomers over there.
I've been there before. Its an okay blog, but its a more of "this is what I think" sorta blog than a "here are the numbers" sorta blog. I prefer blogs that present data and keep the "think is what I think" to the comments.
Regardless The housing bubble blog doesn't present more up to date information then other folks.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,482,294 times
Reputation: 1721
potential
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
I've been there before. Its an okay blog, but its a more of "this is what I think" sorta blog than a "here are the numbers" sorta blog. I prefer blogs that present data and keep the "think is what I think" to the comments.
Regardless The housing bubble blog doesn't present more up to date information then other folks.
I would disagree. There are plenty of numbers there but you have to sift for them.
EX. here are articles I pulled up directly pull from the HBB.
_Numbers_nearly_equal_in_Brockton__Lawrence__Dot
Almto the Warren Group
.
In some parts of the Brockton market, the number of foreclosures now outnumbers the number of sales. There were 44 foreclosures of single-family homes in Brockton in April, compared to 41 sales. Foreclosures also outnumbered sales of three-family and two-family homes in the city.ost as many homes were foreclosed in Lawrence, 156, as were sold, 184, during the first four months of the year, according to the Warren Group, the Boston real estate tracker. More than 45 percent of all real estate transactions in the city are now bank seizures.
Dorchester saw 244 foreclosures compared to 340 sales during the first four months of the year, or 41 percent of the total. Brockton, during the same time period, saw 233 foreclosures compared to 307 sales, or 43 percent, according
I have been a Real Estate Broker in Seattle for 30 years. Yes, the market is tough out there. But if one is going to make predictions for a particular area, one needs to look at data and trends. I work mostly the South End so I haven't tracked months of inventory in other areas. In West Seattle and Burien, the data isn't all that bad. Near the peak of the market in West Seattle, weeks, not months of inventory was 10-12. That was in Spring of 2007. Burien and Des Moines was about 15. By October, 2007, those numbers moved up to 27 and 32 respectively. Now, about 1 year after the peak, those numbers are 26 and 35. 26 weeks is just over 5 months of inventory. In the past 30 years, the range has been from about 8 to over 100 weeks or 2 to 24 months!!! The difference this time is that we have experienced about a 6-10% decrease in prices, not 4%! Months of inventory is holding up, so I see no reason for a continued substantial decrease in the core Seattle area.
The outlying areas however, saw higher appreciation and are now seeing more depreciation along with more months of inventory. We have seen an additional 1-2 months of inventory added in the past 7 months, so those areas aren't close to a bottom yet.
There are numerous people writing all kinds of articles. People need to KNOW what is going on from professionals who have looked at the raw data and know how to interpret it.
Where's the data for the supply/demand curve being out of whack? What's so bad about 6-10 months of inventory? That's the supply and demand ratio. The determinant about where the market is going is the trend of that months of inventory number. It's not rocket science. In addition, because of the amount of depreciation that has gone on, same house to house, or developments must be tracked for price changes to determine actual depreciation. Medians aren't accurate as more lower or upper priced houses selling can skew the median.
So what do I think is going to happen? 0-5% more depreciation in the core Seattle area and 5-10% more in those areas that enjoyed more appreciation during the bubble.
House prices fall £160 a day in biggest drop in 17 years - Mirror.co.uk (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/topstories/2008/05/30/house-prices-fall-160-a-day-in-biggest-drop-in-17-years-89520-20588367/ - broken link)
Quote:
House prices are falling £160 A DAY in the biggest drop for 17 years.
The average price tumbled 2.5 per cent - nearly £5,000 - last month, according to Nationwide.
It is the seventh month in a row prices have fallen, the longest downward spiral since the property crash of 1991.
The price of the typical house is now £173,585, according to Nationwide.
Advertisement
That is £8,000 - 4.4 per cent - less than this time last year and down £12,461 since October when prices peaked at £186,044
In January speculators were ready to pay double the cost price of VND16 million (US$990) per square meter for an apartment in the New Saigon project in the South Saigon area.
The price has now fallen back to VND17 million ($1,052) and some sellers are even ready to bear the property transfer tax.
Nevertheless, sales have dried up with buyers waiting for further drops, a prospect echoed by many analysts who also say the market is returning to realistic valuations.
Many developers last year labeled their projects “high-ranking”, a standard that has never been defined by any local institution, and sold them for at least US$1,000 per square meter.
The country’s per-capita gross domestic product is less than $900
Speculators resorted to borrowing from banks and making down payments while waiting for prices to soar.
However, their calculations went awry this year after commercial banks upped interest rates by up to 20 percent and refused to extend loans or grant new ones.
The downward spiral in property prices, meanwhile, kept eroding profits and, in many cases, actually caused losses.
Analysts estimate prices have plunged by over 40 percent from the peaks of late last year and early this year.
Now that just the real estate end. I mean you can find tune the area that your buying or selling in by the numbers these articles that Mr Jones has pulled together if you want to. you can also take to a national level as well. But what the all the Realtors say: "All real estate is local." I tell you I would probably never find 5o% of these articles on my own.
KeyCorp sank 10.6 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading after saying uncollectible debts may be as much as 1.3 percent of average total loans this year. The figure may rise even more, KeyCorp said, as the Cleveland-based company cuts holdings tied to homebuilders.
The revision by the Ohio bank, which last month quadrupled its provision for loan losses to $187 million, may foretell similar increases at U.S. commercial banks as home prices keep sliding, analysts said. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 14.4 percent in March to the lowest since figures were first published in 2001, data released yesterday show.
``Things are getting significantly worse before they are going to get better for KeyCorp and the banking industry,'' RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy said in a note to investors today. He rates KeyCorp ``underperform.''
Banks and securities firms have already recorded $382.8 billion in writedowns and credit losses tied to the slumping housing market. Lenders have several quarters to go before loan losses reach bottom, said Mark Fitzgibbon, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP.
``Banks are a little bit delusional right now about when they're going to turn around,'' said New York-based Fitzgibbon, who has 11 ``hold'' ratings, three ``buys'' and two ``sells'' on the banks he covers, which don't include KeyCorp. ``Recessions don't turn around in days or weeks or months. It's a multiyear kind of thing.''
Banks Tumble
KeyCorp fell $2.29 to $19.66 at 4:10 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It was the biggest one-day drop since Oct. 19, 1987. The stock had declined 6.4 percent this year before today. KeyCorp spokesman Bill Murschel declined additional comment.
Five of the 24 companies in the KBW Bank Index dropped by more than 4 percent. Fifth Third Bancorp slid 3.6 percent, M&T Bank Corp. lost 3.5 percent and Comerica Inc. declined 3.8 percent.
KeyCorp's revision yesterday means the bank may have to halve its dividend so it isn't forced to raise more capital, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Brian Foran said in a note to investors today.
Already, banks holding repossessed properties are offering buyers discounts of as much as 40 percent, according to Moody's Economy.com analyst Celia Chen.
Those subprime figures mirror the nation, in which 52 percent of black loans, 41 percent of Hispanic loans and 22 percent of white, non-Hispanic loans were subprime, according to the fair-lending advocacy group Committee for Responsible Lending. Subprime loans are offered to borrowers with poor credit histories at higher-than-prime interest rates but little or no down payment
The Office of Thrift Supervision said Tuesday that the nation's 831 thrifts lost $617 million in the quarter, down from a profit of $3.61 billion in the same quarter a year ago. It was an improvement from the fourth quarter of 2007, when thrifts lost $8.75 billion.
Thrifts set aside $5.5 billion for loan losses in the previous quarter and $1.2 billion in the first quarter of 2007
The amount set aside for problem loans soared in the first quarter to more than 2 percent of average assets, about six times from 0.33 percent a year earlier. Charge-offs, or loans written off as not being repaid, rose to 0.93 percent of average assets from 0.28 percent a year earlier.
Troubled assets -- loans that are 90 or more days past due -- continued to soar, rising to $31.1 billion in the first quarter, up from $11.9 billion in the same quarter last year.
As a percentage of total assets, troubled assets rose to the highest level since the early 1990s. They came in at 2.06 percent of assets for the quarter, up from 0.80 percent in the same quarter of 2006, but below the peak of 3.8 percent in 1990
VIEs are under increasing scrutiny because they contain CDOs, or bonds largely backed by subprime debt that are repackaged into new securities with credit ratings as high as AAA, according to S&P. More than 180 CDOs with $192 billion of assets have failed since October, data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg show. Only $5.1 billion of CDOs collapsed between 2003 and mid-2006, S&P said.
JEDI, Chewie
The biggest underwriters of defaulted CDOs are New York- based Merrill, with $39 billion, followed by Citigroup at $35.1 billion and UBS in Zurich with $20.1 billion, according to S&P and Bloomberg data. They sold almost half the CDOs that were either in default or in so-called acceleration mode as of May 12, the data show.
Etc. Etc. Etc.......this is just a drop in the bucket of information and number one can pull from the housing bubble blog. Basically it a clearinghouse for information. And yeah they don't just hand you the number most of the time. You do have to spend time reading and sifting. But the potential payback for doing your home work it so worth it.
Also one last thing the really great thing about the bubble blog is I'm not just trapped into the national view of things. But I can find what going on in particular state. Heck sometime particular towns. It cool because I just might see something that I wish to invest in on a local level that I otherwise might not have known about. So go Ben Jones and keep the HBB going!
As for being more up to date. Ok I won't agrue that HBB is any further ahead of any other blog/source. I'll just get back to reading.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
More time today.
