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Thread summary:

Bad Economy: economic depression, expectations, fiscal policy, home mortgage interest rates.

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Old 06-19-2008, 09:20 AM
 
2,560 posts, read 4,050,004 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travelmate38 View Post
I think there is another thread on here for military haters. You should find it. The military, contrary to your rant is an economic stimulus. Always has been a stimulus aand, probably always will be. Some of the other points you mention, make sense, but not your anti-military stance. If not for the military, you and I would not be here. That is a fact, like it or not.
I did not see anywhere in the statement that says the OP was anti-military or was for doing away with the military.

The military is not and never has been an economic stimulous. Nor should the gov spending tax money be an economic stimulous with the exception of regulating the free market.

Of course with trillions of dollars in debt, I can see people thinking like me are in the minority in the gov. How many years of tax revenue is that debt equal to?
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Old 06-19-2008, 09:40 AM
 
2,580 posts, read 6,630,910 times
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In depression's past or recession for the most part you did not have computers,so now life can be affected any where by a click of the mouse.Government has no problem controlling the population.
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Old 06-19-2008, 11:06 AM
 
Location: America
6,987 posts, read 15,759,702 times
Reputation: 2073
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifeisbigger View Post
Hello,
I am a relatively young individual, like everybody else I am paying quite a bit of attention to the economic situation we're in right now. While I was in college during the 2001 (?) recession, I didn't give it much thought at all. Likewise, I was obviously too young to know anything about other previous recessions, including those in the early 90s and late 70s.
My question to those who experienced those economic downturns is this: how does this feel to you compared to other downturns? ... not only in your own personal life but in the overall feeling of the general population - you know, how people view the situation.
Since I'm young, I can't compare this to anything, but I am seeing lots of people that I know that are very worried and even preparing for the absolute worst, including, well, a total economic meltdown. I'm interested, but again I have nothing to compare this to.
Can someone shed some light on this for me so I can have some more insight?

Thanks!
The likelihood of a total economic meltdown in my personal opinion is very very small. With that said let us look at the factors at play right now.

1. Increasing Oil prices. With the possibility of world oil production peaking at this time.
2. We are seeing the end of a energy era (Think of the previous eras: wood, whale blubber, kerosene-petroleum)
3. A economy that was built around Finance, Insurance, Real Estate or better known as a F.I.R.E. economy and all of which is spurred on by consumer debt (consumption).
4. Devaluing of the currency which then leads to price inflation.
5. Real Estate market crash that has been the worst this country has ever seen.

So, how does all that play into the future? How is that different from the 70s and 90s?

I am not going to go into depth on this because it would take more time and space than I care to contribute right now. But basically, our way of life is in flux. Does it mean America is going to come tumbling down? Probably not. Does it mean how we do things, and our importance/influence in the world may be diminished? Yep, probably. But thats okay.

I don't believe some of the suburbs are going to make it through this. I think there will be a shift to inner city living. I think mass transit will become as important to most American cities as it is to most European cities. I think we may not be seeing 2 and 3 cars per household anymore, maybe 1 per household. I think many sectors will have to change and some may not exist anymore. At least not in the state they have existed thus far. I think a lot of middle class and lower fringes of upper class are going to see their wealth evaporate. I think that this thing is going to drag on far longer than many people expect it to.

As for me and what I see? I see stagflation upon the horizon. All my friends accept one have steady jobs. Everyone I know is just getting by, check to check. People I work with are car pooling, or taking mass transit (I love mass transit so I like to see that). A lot of people I know are one step away from disaster. If one spouse loses their job its pretty much a wrap. Two friends of mine have moved in with parents to help make ends meet.

That is another thing I see happening. I see people living two to three generations to a home like they do in most parts of the world.

We will be ok, you will be ok and your friends will be ok. The plans many people had as far as how successful they will be or how many BMWs they will own might have to get put on hold until their next life (will they have BMW in the afterlife?)

Meh, don't worry. Just study the economy, see where things are headed and try to determine which fields will be in demand in the future. Then tailor your education toward that. Can't go wrong with psychology, a lot of mental illness popping up.
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Old 06-19-2008, 11:23 AM
 
531 posts, read 1,135,093 times
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It's always the current situation that seems the worst.
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Old 06-19-2008, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 24,257,221 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
1. Increasing Oil prices. With the possibility of world oil production peaking at this time.
2. We are seeing the end of a energy era (Think of the previous eras: wood, whale blubber, kerosene-petroleum)
3. A economy that was built around Finance, Insurance, Real Estate or better known as a F.I.R.E. economy and all of which is spurred on by consumer debt (consumption).
4. Devaluing of the currency which then leads to price inflation.
5. Real Estate market crash that has been the worst this country has ever seen.



As for me and what I see? I see stagflation upon the horizon. All my friends accept one have steady jobs. Everyone I know is just getting by, check to check. People I work with are car pooling, or taking mass transit (I love mass transit so I like to see that). A lot of people I know are one step away from disaster. If one spouse loses their job its pretty much a wrap. Two friends of mine have moved in with parents to help make ends meet.

That is another thing I see happening. I see people living two to three generations to a home like they do in most parts of the world.
You can already see people stuck living with their parents in south Florida. We already have had stagflation, and have for several decades now. Especially since the late 90's wages have not kept pace with inflation. The Federal Reserve and the media have combined to produce a crop of debt-lovers who spend regardless if they have the money to. This will be ended by the global economy. Now for your list:

1) Oil prices will fall if the nit-wit Bernanke grows some balls and tightens the "money" supply. We have not seen peak oil......YET. More people should be investing in biofuels and nuclear reactors to help lessen the oil use. We use 50% of the world's oil , that's disgusting!

2) The oil age still has a long way to go, it will phase out not die instantly.

3) We need more manufacturing, mining and farming and less financial services. However Helicopter Ben will not allow the bad investments to fail yet, so the (FIRE) keeps burning fueled by his flood of cash.

4) Yes shoot down Ben's helicopter.

5) The crash has a long way to go. I think that the more real estate values fall the stronger the economy will become. If real estate investments have no significant returns, that money will have to into production, I love production because real wealth is generated. Real estate should never exceed general monetary inflation.
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Old 06-19-2008, 02:42 PM
 
Location: The Garden State
809 posts, read 2,516,907 times
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From my point of view "the feeling" now is no different than it was during the other turbulent times. Its the same uncertainty. I can't really say I am more concerned now than I was then. Everytime these grim economic times come around there is always the doom and gloom crowd that is sure were all condemned to misery.

The truth is some of will be just fine and some of us will not be. Hence the expression "Its a recession when your neighbore loses his job, its a depression when you lose yours". Here in NJ, I have already seen people leave for economic reasons. I have also heard the young people at work contemplating leaving. I can't blame them for being bitter but they have to adapt and move on.
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Old 06-19-2008, 05:05 PM
 
16,092 posts, read 37,232,600 times
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Here in Texas when we had it bad in the 80s (oil, RE, bank and S&L bust) the rest of the country seemed ok. This time it's the other way around. Everyone wants to move here.
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Old 06-19-2008, 05:17 PM
 
3,413 posts, read 6,560,431 times
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I think things are much better now and that it was much worse before. I've gotten so used to (over my 50 years) all the "the sky is falling in" predictions that I don't even pay any attention to them anymore. ESPECIALLY not in an election year.
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Old 06-19-2008, 07:47 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,883,027 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifeisbigger View Post
Hello,
I am a relatively young individual, like everybody else I am paying quite a bit of attention to the economic situation we're in right now. While I was in college during the 2001 (?) recession, I didn't give it much thought at all. Likewise, I was obviously too young to know anything about other previous recessions, including those in the early 90s and late 70s.
My question to those who experienced those economic downturns is this: how does this feel to you compared to other downturns? ... not only in your own personal life but in the overall feeling of the general population - you know, how people view the situation.
Since I'm young, I can't compare this to anything, but I am seeing lots of people that I know that are very worried and even preparing for the absolute worst, including, well, a total economic meltdown. I'm interested, but again I have nothing to compare this to.
Can someone shed some light on this for me so I can have some more insight?

Thanks!
This is NOTHING compared to the past. I guess you did not live through the 70s and early 80s when the economy was wrecked by hyper inflation and by double digit unemployment rates. It was gawd awful back then. I remember that my mother would go to the grocery store and the price would be higher every Saturday than it was the Saturday before. And Boeing was laying off people right and left including cutting off the whole 3rd shift but luckily my dad had enough time to keep his job during those years. My mom had to get a weekend job as a waitress because we just could not make it on one income anymore. So what we are seeing now is really nothing compared to then! Unemployment went up to 5.5%??? Big deal! When it gets to 9 to 11% then we can compare!
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Old 06-19-2008, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,883,027 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by azoria View Post
I went through the civil rights upheaval of the 60's, the gas crisis of the 70's, the 80's 15% mortgage interest rates, the late 80's oil bust in Texas, the 2001 meltdown. And as an official baby boomer, gone through life in the US as the rat in the snake--always too many of us for available jobs and housing.

But I think this is the worst so far and I think there will be long term ramifications. After riding the long wave of late 20th century post-war glory, America is in the 21st century and falling behind in every catagory. We have invested all of our talent and most of our money in the best interests of the military industrial complex (as feared by Eisenhower). Those chickens are settling in to roost.

As investment in our country, our cities, and our people have diminished over the last 50 years at the expense of worldwide meddling, overseas outsourcing, and a catastrophic sinking of resources in *defense* spending, our country is running farther and farther behind. I think this trend will continue for the forseeable future with further deteriorating quality of life for many Americans and a shrinking middles class.

Pumping/drilling/stealing/squeezing gas and oil from every crack and crevice will NOT fix our problems. America has failed to invest in its infrastructure, failed to invest in its own cities, failed to invest in public transportation, failed to support education, failed to invest in public health, failed to support families. Failed to take care of the bottom line.

We will pay for these failures for a long time to come. While many other places make the right investments, we will continue to ignore our shortcomings and seek glory in faraway conquests that make good headlines.
Actually the front end of the baby boom (those born between 48 and 55) have done pretty well. In fact they have done fantastic. But those born between 55 and 64 have not done as well. By the time we got around to the jobs, they were all gone and the price of housing had climbed so high that many of us could not afford a home they way our parents and the older baby boomers did.
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