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Thread summary:

Oil news: peak, price, climate change, global warming, alternative fuels.

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Old 06-26-2008, 04:19 PM
 
48,509 posts, read 86,231,222 times
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After all the hearing s and all the testimony congresses committee finally came to a conclusion yesterday. As Senator Shumer sadi the demand is more than the supplt adnd demand is driving price;in calling for a GRAND COMPROMISE to start drilling more.Guess teh heat started getting to the democrats has they left Obama;'s policy in their wake to get something done.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:25 PM
 
13,104 posts, read 19,278,087 times
Reputation: 21538
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelmate38 View Post
Gold is a good investment, no argument there. Why? Because gold is real and what backs all currency. However, as a simple mid-term investment strategy, most agree, gold has made its run. And when the dow hits 7000 as I'm predicting, gold or any other precious metal won't really matter. Survival at the barbarian level will.......

Isn't it the Bible that states....."a bag of gold won't buy a loaf of bread?"
This is a very strange thread. The Al Gore gas rise theory. Hmmm gotta think about it over a few beers. But one misstatement at a time (and this thread is full of misstatements) - currencies are not backed by gold anymore.
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Old 06-26-2008, 05:33 PM
 
Location: America
6,987 posts, read 15,774,855 times
Reputation: 2073
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
Hi Wild Style,
I have no qualms about Oil supplies dwindling recently or in the mid/near future. It's something everybody has been preaching and working on for awhile. I'm just trying to point out and justify the "excessive" increases in Oil prices. Which will ultimately stymie our/and other economies because of too many people rocking on the same boat.

If investors truly see Oil as something that reached peak, and demand out weighs supply etc. Then the recent gains in Oil prices are short term. They should realize that Oil isn't a good long position and invest into something that makes the World less dependent on Oil. That's where the "Smart" money should be heading... not into a dwindling resource with no future. Could that be why the BPs (-7% YTD) and the Exons (-7.7% YTD) aren't doing so hot these days? Why aren't they exiting Oil Futures itself? I see that will happen in the short future. And that's when the bubble will pop.

Remember the Fad on rice a few weeks a month ago? Now look at what's happening:
Rice futures decline on Asian market downturn - Forbes.com (broken link)

-chuck22b
your not getting it. This is NOT speculation. Or I should say a very small part of it is. Nothing that would contribute significantly. Just look into what I am saying. I already gave you one person's name to search on.
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Old 06-26-2008, 05:59 PM
 
Location: America
6,987 posts, read 15,774,855 times
Reputation: 2073
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
Hi Wild Style,
I have no qualms about Oil supplies dwindling recently or in the mid/near future. It's something everybody has been preaching and working on for awhile. I'm just trying to point out and justify the "excessive" increases in Oil prices. Which will ultimately stymie our/and other economies because of too many people rocking on the same boat.

If investors truly see Oil as something that reached peak, and demand out weighs supply etc. Then the recent gains in Oil prices are short term. They should realize that Oil isn't a good long position and invest into something that makes the World less dependent on Oil. That's where the "Smart" money should be heading... not into a dwindling resource with no future. Could that be why the BPs (-7% YTD) and the Exons (-7.7% YTD) aren't doing so hot these days? Why aren't they exiting Oil Futures itself? I see that will happen in the short future. And that's when the bubble will pop.

Remember the Fad on rice a few weeks a month ago? Now look at what's happening:
Rice futures decline on Asian market downturn - Forbes.com (broken link)

-chuck22b
further look into your analysis reveals prices falling of rice have NOTHING to do with investors or speculation.

link

link (http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080625.wglobalrice0625/BNStory/Business/home - broken link)

So unless someone magically finds a crap ton of the stuff and can bring the fields online asap nothing is going to change.
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Old 06-26-2008, 11:49 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,008,453 times
Reputation: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
further look into your analysis reveals prices falling of rice have NOTHING to do with investors or speculation.

link

link (http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080625.wglobalrice0625/BNStory/Business/home - broken link)

So unless someone magically finds a crap ton of the stuff and can bring the fields online asap nothing is going to change.
I know rice wasn't purely speculation and was more related to export restrictions. I was trying to show rice price volatility caused by the involvment of investors in rice futures. Likewise, since OIL has a lot more investment dollars, the volatility in OIL will be higher. Since everybody says there's a shortage now, if more and more investors go into OIL of course prices will rise. Rice didn't have anywhere near as much money going into it. Corn prices should fall pretty quickly when production can easily ramp up inspite of recent supply shocks.. and the same with wheat.

Just curious... wouldn't you think more investors going into something will cause an uptick in prices? The scarcity, etc. can be similar or even a little worse than last year... but if more investors go into the same pool, wouldn't the mere action of more investors cause prices to increase?

Oil's momentum play -- or panic - MarketWatch
Bloomberg.com: India & Pakistan

-chuck22b
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Old 06-26-2008, 11:52 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,008,453 times
Reputation: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
After all the hearing s and all the testimony congresses committee finally came to a conclusion yesterday. As Senator Shumer sadi the demand is more than the supplt adnd demand is driving price;in calling for a GRAND COMPROMISE to start drilling more.Guess teh heat started getting to the democrats has they left Obama;'s policy in their wake to get something done.

Uhm, this report doesn't look like they quit...

UPDATE:House Orders CFTC To Curb Excessive Energy Speculation -2-


-chuck22b
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Old 06-27-2008, 05:32 AM
 
Location: America
6,987 posts, read 15,774,855 times
Reputation: 2073
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
I know rice wasn't purely speculation and was more related to export restrictions. I was trying to show rice price volatility caused by the involvment of investors in rice futures. Likewise, since OIL has a lot more investment dollars, the volatility in OIL will be higher. Since everybody says there's a shortage now, if more and more investors go into OIL of course prices will rise. Rice didn't have anywhere near as much money going into it. Corn prices should fall pretty quickly when production can easily ramp up inspite of recent supply shocks.. and the same with wheat.

Just curious... wouldn't you think more investors going into something will cause an uptick in prices? The scarcity, etc. can be similar or even a little worse than last year... but if more investors go into the same pool, wouldn't the mere action of more investors cause prices to increase?

Oil's momentum play -- or panic - MarketWatch
Bloomberg.com: India & Pakistan

-chuck22b
okay, I understand you better now. Yes, it will cause it to go up. But in my opinion I do not believe speculation counts for as much as people are attempting to attribute to it. I could be wrong on that but I just don't think that is the case. I think it is a host of problems and for me I think speculation is at the bottom of that list. I think higher up is supply/demand (Peak Oil), weak dollar etc.

I forget who it was, but I think someone posted what China is doing right now with it's U.S. dollars (stock piling oil). If that stops then maybe prices will go down for awhile. Other wise this is going to be really ugly.
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Old 06-27-2008, 12:21 PM
 
8,956 posts, read 7,913,041 times
Reputation: 7326
There's a lot of money seeking alternative investments to mitigate the effects of inflation since fixed-income investments pay a negative real rate of return and seeking a safe haven from a potential crisis in the US dollar. As the link shows, there's massive inflation already in the pipeline. Investors are expecting more deterioration in the economy and the banks. Similar actions in the future by the Fed and the Treasury will only chase investors towards the same instruments.

St. Louis Fed: FRED GRAPH[1][id]=BORROW
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