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Old 06-26-2008, 08:32 PM
 
655 posts, read 758,729 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sierraAZ View Post
Yeah, I'm kind of glad I listened to the so called by many tin foils and got out of the market when I did. Now the question remains when or whether to get back in...
I've been predicting a Dow bottom of 7000 by 2010. That is when I might consider jumping back in. things are bad this go round, very bad and getting worse by the hour.
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:42 PM
 
6,343 posts, read 8,962,289 times
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People need to keep in mind that back in '92, people were saying the next Great Depression was at hand and they had a real, honest to goodness recession to prove it.

Oil will go down. It is a guarantee...why? Because DEMAND is going down in the US with people driving less. Also, China removed fuel subsidies, which caused a 20% increase in their oil prices, which will cause their demand to go down. Not to mention that their economy is hurting allot more than ours, so their growth will no longer be as big a factor in gas prices in the coming years.

Trust me, things will pick up in winter and next year. We have not even had a single solitary quarter of actual negative GDP growth yet in '08.

In the end, high gas prices are a GREAT THING THAT I AM GREATFUL FOR. Why? Because, alas, it is the only thing that will make Americans change their ways. This year, CO2 emissions will be allot lower than they were last year. Oil is indeed running out all over the world, and the gradual increase we are getting from speculators is something that we should be THANKFUL FOR because it is going to push us towards breaking away from our dependency on oil and make us stop spilling CO2 into the air.

Oil is our addiction, and the resent price hikes have been a much needed intervention. However, with a combination of new technologies (biodiesel and "flexfuel", hybrids plug-ins) and common sense (FINALLY! people are no longer buying those ugly SUVs) Demand will go down, and the price will stabalize. This is not a recession, just a rough transition that will be nowhere near as rough as one cause by oil just vanishing over night. At least now, we have a few years of forced adjustments. It only saddens me that it took hitting Americans in the wallet to get them to change their ways, instead of listening to the advice being given by experts for the past two decades.
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:43 PM
 
6,343 posts, read 8,962,289 times
Reputation: 3455
Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Wait until we start to have fuel shortages if you think it is bad now. We have been digging our hole for decdes living the good life for cheap prices.

Considering the reserves are actually HIGHER this year than they have been in years before, I don't think that's something that will happen any time soon.
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:45 PM
 
3,031 posts, read 8,436,760 times
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There are three big things at work here. Energy prices (driven by oil), the stock market (a result of the energy crisis, in part) and the housing market (multiple factors but crazy lending practices and now, the bank and mortgage lender failures). If all three continue to free-fall, we are in deep doo-doo. But I really think the housing market will bottom out soon. Where it will bottom out is anyone's guess but I don't think it's in a free-fall. And that will be the one, small saving grace against a terrible depression. I think we're headed for a severe recession--in fact, we're probably already there. But I'm not yet convinced we're headed for a depression.

Then again, I'm not an economist so what do I know?

I do know my husband is unemployed and his job has always been directly or indirectly related to the banking industry. He also is convinced that he must make a minimum of six figures and I don't know how to tactfully tell him that he'll be lucky to land any job in this economy. ::sigh::

I've seen this movie before with him and it's not pretty. I hope he's learned humility and to accept the fact that HE is not worth less just because he's making less. Sheesh.
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:46 PM
 
Location: Tucson
42,835 posts, read 80,679,358 times
Reputation: 22814
Quote:
Originally Posted by victorianpunk View Post
In the end, high gas prices are a GREAT THING THAT I AM GREATFUL FOR. Why? Because, alas, it is the only thing that will make Americans change their ways. This year, CO2 emissions will be allot lower than they were last year. Oil is indeed running out all over the world, and the gradual increase we are getting from speculators is something that we should be THANKFUL FOR because it is going to push us towards breaking away from our dependency on oil and make us stop spilling CO2 into the air.
And what's your suggestion to all those people living in far suburbs because this isolated lifestyle happened to be promoted up until now? Not to go to work?
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:47 PM
 
655 posts, read 758,729 times
Reputation: 240
Quote:
Originally Posted by victorianpunk View Post
People need to keep in mind that back in '92, people were saying the next Great Depression was at hand and they had a real, honest to goodness recession to prove it.

Oil will go down. It is a guarantee...why? Because DEMAND is going down in the US with people driving less. Also, China removed fuel subsidies, which caused a 20% increase in their oil prices, which will cause their demand to go down. Not to mention that their economy is hurting allot more than ours, so their growth will no longer be as big a factor in gas prices in the coming years.

Trust me, things will pick up in winter and next year. We have not even had a single solitary quarter of actual negative GDP growth yet in '08.

In the end, high gas prices are a GREAT THING THAT I AM GREATFUL FOR. Why? Because, alas, it is the only thing that will make Americans change their ways. This year, CO2 emissions will be allot lower than they were last year. Oil is indeed running out all over the world, and the gradual increase we are getting from speculators is something that we should be THANKFUL FOR because it is going to push us towards breaking away from our dependency on oil and make us stop spilling CO2 into the air.

Oil is our addiction, and the resent price hikes have been a much needed intervention. However, with a combination of new technologies (biodiesel and "flexfuel", hybrids plug-ins) and common sense (FINALLY! people are no longer buying those ugly SUVs) Demand will go down, and the price will stabalize. This is not a recession, just a rough transition that will be nowhere near as rough as one cause by oil just vanishing over night. At least now, we have a few years of forced adjustments. It only saddens me that it took hitting Americans in the wallet to get them to change their ways, instead of listening to the advice being given by experts for the past two decades.
The difference between 92 and today is not even comparable. In 92 and 2001 we had just a few minor issues weighing on the economy. Today, we have EVERYTHING. Name it, it is bad. EVERYTHING! No way around this, but to go through one hell of a rough ride.
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:48 PM
 
6,343 posts, read 8,962,289 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goodbyehollywood View Post
Many think SoCal is a third world country now. You can walk through LAX and not hear a word of English. The melting pot has stopped melting and we are seemingly en route to some sort of European two-class society. The question is, how long and painful will the transition be?

They said the samething about Manhattan in the 1850s...nothing but third world Irish immigrants, and one could not walk down the street without hearing a word of American English, just a broken Irish accent. The melting pot stopped melting and New York City is now a wasteland of Irish immgrants who are still not American and it's a third world hell hole with no money and...ohh...wait....
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:52 PM
 
6,343 posts, read 8,962,289 times
Reputation: 3455
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelmate38 View Post
The difference between 92 and today is not even comparable. In 92 and 2001 we had just a few minor issues weighing on the economy. Today, we have EVERYTHING. Name it, it is bad. EVERYTHING! No way around this, but to go through one hell of a rough ride.

And how much rougher a ride would it be if instead of going from 3.40 a gallon to about, maybe 4.15 a gallon we went from 3.40 a gallon to 15.00 a gallon?



Oliver Twist, or Mad Max, which would you prefer to live in?

At least we have a chance to brace ourselves for peak oil this way. Keep in mind that the AMOUNT of oil coming out of the ground has not changed. When it does...we had better be prepared, and this way, at least, America is being forced to do so.
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Old 06-26-2008, 09:00 PM
 
6,343 posts, read 8,962,289 times
Reputation: 3455
Quote:
Originally Posted by sierraAZ View Post
And what's your suggestion to all those people living in far suburbs because this isolated lifestyle happened to be promoted up until now? Not to go to work?

Suffer for your mistakes for a few years, than Move

Hey, the suburbia thing, from a economic, environmental, socialogical and political stand point was a very BAD IDEA. I sad it ever since I was thirteen years old, and as I got older and read up on it, found that it indeed is a very BAD IDEA. We were made to live in villages or cities, not endless developments and McMansions.

The future, which is coming sooner than most think, will have cities laid out on a hub-and-spoke grid: the major city's core in the middle, with smaller, satelite cities and villages surrounding it connected by mass transit networks, or "spokes of the wheel". The suburbs will become the new ghettoes, and rural life will go on as always with people using biodesel or something.

I have met so many Europeans who ask me the same thing: why don't Americans live in villages like we do? Isn't this lifestyle depressing? Well, it is, and the Euroes are right. We will live to see the Greatest Generation's greatest mistake come to and end, and that makes me happy.


Say good-buy to that suburbian nightmere in "American Beauty", and say hello to "The Shire"

Thanks oil-speculators
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Old 06-26-2008, 09:13 PM
 
10 posts, read 20,904 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by victorianpunk View Post
We were made to live in villages or cities, not endless developments and McMansions.
No, we were absolutely not meant to live in little boxes all stacked up on top of each other. I've studied it too, and I'm pretty much convinced that cramming people into small spaces results in nothing but broken spirit.

Bringing an end to the suburbs means bringing an end to the middle class.

And I've been to Europe, and I freaking hate it there. Little teeny apartments, little teeny cars, little teeny roads. There's nothing there to be happy about.
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