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Thread summary:

Oil trading: cheap energy, retirement, renting an apartment, real estate, traffic.

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Old 06-28-2008, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
2,305 posts, read 2,748,680 times
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170 mile round trip to work? Now that's using your head. I have a friend who use to do that because he wanted to live in a city that he thought impressed everyone.
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Old 06-28-2008, 09:56 AM
Status: "chickpea soup" (set 27 days ago)
 
18,764 posts, read 56,506,947 times
Reputation: 33173
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
Harry, I can agree with most of what you wrote, but I think suburban sprawl in all of its glory is not confined to California. Have you ever seen pictures of Florida?

Here's one I found on Google:

http://advocacy.britannica.com/blog/...wl-florida.jpg
LOL, I don't need pictures, I just moved from Florida last year after living there about twenty years. I also used to vacation in southeast Florida back in the 1970s. I watched with my own two eyes as the road from Miami to Homestead and the Keys changed from a rural 2 lane concrete highway to a multi-lane highway bounded on both sides, city to city, with typical ugly urban sprawl.

Sure Florida has serious problems. What I note is that back in 1963, when I toured the country, southern California was already at the stage of sprawl that Miami-Homestead was in about 1990. In my estimation, California, and especially L.A. set the model, by doing such dumb things as killing the Red Line and building massive freeways. South Florida somewhat recently followed suit by - get this - allowing the old rail line to Homestead from Miami to be dug up in the early 1990s, waiting five years, putting in a dedicated bus line along the same route, going to the expense of grading and paving, and now, considering that it might -just possibly- make sense that the Metromover which stops at the Dadeland station DIRECTLY OVER THE OLD RAILROAD ROUTE, extend via trackage down that route. <dOH!>

FWIW, South Florida from Ft. Lauderdale down, has expanded about as far as it can. The Everglades is off-limits, and the severe traffic issues drove many people back towards the coast, where the rising taxes and insurance costs drove them back inland five or more miles. The area has so many issues with the area that I can't even begin to detail them.
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Old 06-28-2008, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
6,302 posts, read 15,776,414 times
Reputation: 8389
Oh, I see. Well, maybe that picture will be illuminating for someone who's never been to Florida. I can agree that L.A. and California did set the stage for "suburbia = utopia". I've seen photos of the old streetcars in downtown L.A., and I can't believe they were retired in favor of freeways!

I think $200/barrel oil is going to change our lives in ways we don't expect and can't foresee. It's like a domino effect, one that I'm not looking forward to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by harry chickpea View Post
LOL, I don't need pictures, I just moved from Florida last year after living there about twenty years. I also used to vacation in southeast Florida back in the 1970s. I watched with my own two eyes as the road from Miami to Homestead and the Keys changed from a rural 2 lane concrete highway to a multi-lane highway bounded on both sides, city to city, with typical ugly urban sprawl.

Sure Florida has serious problems. What I note is that back in 1963, when I toured the country, southern California was already at the stage of sprawl that Miami-Homestead was in about 1990. In my estimation, California, and especially L.A. set the model, by doing such dumb things as killing the Red Line and building massive freeways. South Florida somewhat recently followed suit by - get this - allowing the old rail line to Homestead from Miami to be dug up in the early 1990s, waiting five years, putting in a dedicated bus line along the same route, going to the expense of grading and paving, and now, considering that it might -just possibly- make sense that the Metromover which stops at the Dadeland station DIRECTLY OVER THE OLD RAILROAD ROUTE, extend via trackage down that route. <dOH!>

FWIW, South Florida from Ft. Lauderdale down, has expanded about as far as it can. The Everglades is off-limits, and the severe traffic issues drove many people back towards the coast, where the rising taxes and insurance costs drove them back inland five or more miles. The area has so many issues with the area that I can't even begin to detail them.
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Old 06-28-2008, 10:40 AM
 
8,317 posts, read 26,420,685 times
Reputation: 9173
Quote:
Originally Posted by harry chickpea View Post
Raises hand - ME! ME! http://bestsmileys.com/bouncing/19.gif (broken link)

"Sky-high gas prices "would basically reorient society to where proximity would be more valuable," said Tom Gilligan, finance professor at USC."

Gee, http://bestsmileys.com/clueless/1.gif (broken link)ya think California residents and academics might finally be learning the old real estate saw "Location, location, location?"

About time.

"Restaurant owners are complaining that thieves are helping themselves to used barrels of cooking oil, which can be home-brewed into biodiesel fuel."

Are we to interpret that those smelly barrels of used cooking oil and lard, that were commonly set out back of restaurants to attract rats and annoy neighbors are a prized commodity now? Just who is complaining and why? Sorry, no sympathy here at all. If the stuff has value, treat it as such. http://bestsmileys.com/clueless/4.gif (broken link)


"Already Californians' mobility is being curbed. Traffic on the state's freeways fell almost 4% in April compared with a year earlier"

About time. http://bestsmileys.com/cars/18.gif (broken link)


"The fee increases on the ferry would be nothing compared with the added cost of transoceanic shipping if oil goes to $200. Some experts say high energy costs are altering global trade and slowing the pace of globalization."

About time. http://bestsmileys.com/happy/7.gif (broken link)

"local ports could lose business if shipping costs get so out of hand that companies begin shifting production back to North America from Asia -"

About time. So sad for all those offshore dreams of big business.http://bestsmileys.com/sad/8.gif (broken link) NOT!

"high fuel prices will push restaurants, retailers and food manufacturers to look for suppliers closer to their operations."

About time. http://bestsmileys.com/eating1/10.gif (broken link)

"Videoconferencing, touted as "the next big thing" for years, would finally have its day, thanks to improved technology and a desperation to cut corporate travel budgets."

About time. End the lunch meeting in the conference room http://bestsmileys.com/office1/5.gif (broken link)

"It wouldn't all be bad, of course."

Huh????? All of the above was bad???? http://bestsmileys.com/frustrated/4.gif (broken link) What is it about the media that it can't grasp reality?

California built cities predicated on dirt-cheap oil. Dirt-cheap oil is going bye bye. Dinosaurs died to support California, California urban sprawl and screwed-up values go the way of the dinosaurs. Sounds fair to me.
Personally, I welcome the impending death of auto-dependent suburban sprawl. No, I don't think people will be living in high-rise gulags. I think "New Urbanism" will rise to the forefront. I chuckle about the name--because what "New Urbanism" really is hearkens back to the "suburban" model found in the US until about 1940. That is, an urban area comprised of smaller communities--each largely self-sufficient--connected to one another with trolleys and interurban railroads (i.e. light and heavy rail, in today's parlance). Autos, sprawl, and freeways unnecessary.

It can be quite livable. I currently live in a small community. I am 12 blocks from my work (and I can work at home sometimes, if I so choose), and I am within a mile of any day-to-day shopping needs that I have. I live on a small lot in a modest, but comfortable single-family home in a safe neighborhood. I'm already living in a place that shows that sprawl-free living is both possible and desirable. Unfortunately, a lot of sprawling crap has been built in the areas outlying where I live, and those folks are going to have a real hard time of it in what lies ahead. What's pitiful is that we keep building that crap--even as the evidence piles up neck-deep that the lifestyle it represents is not going to be viable anymore. Maybe $7-$10 gas will wise us up--too bad it has to come to that to get Americans to pull their collective heads out of their ***es . . .
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Old 06-28-2008, 11:10 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,390,015 times
Reputation: 4544
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Personally, I welcome the impending death of auto-dependent suburban sprawl. No, I don't think people will be living in high-rise gulags. I think "New Urbanism" will rise to the forefront. I chuckle about the name--because what "New Urbanism" really is hearkens back to the "suburban" model found in the US until about 1940. That is, an urban area comprised of smaller communities--each largely self-sufficient--connected to one another with trolleys and interurban railroads (i.e. light and heavy rail, in today's parlance). Autos, sprawl, and freeways unnecessary.

It can be quite livable. I currently live in a small community. I am 12 blocks from my work (and I can work at home sometimes, if I so choose), and I am within a mile of any day-to-day shopping needs that I have. I live on a small lot in a modest, but comfortable single-family home in a safe neighborhood. I'm already living in a place that shows that sprawl-free living is both possible and desirable. Unfortunately, a lot of sprawling crap has been built in the areas outlying where I live, and those folks are going to have a real hard time of it in what lies ahead. What's pitiful is that we keep building that crap--even as the evidence piles up neck-deep that the lifestyle it represents is not going to be viable anymore. Maybe $7-$10 gas will wise us up--too bad it has to come to that to get Americans to pull their collective heads out of their ***es . . .
Most developers haven't jumped on the new urbanism bandwagon yet, especially outside of the major cities. Like condos, they are still a niche type development. That may change, but for now the strip malls and these new 'upscale lifestyle centers' rule the day for retail. They are building them all the time here, but we have yet to get a true new urbanist development.
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Old 06-28-2008, 11:41 AM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,038,162 times
Reputation: 3961
Quote:
Originally Posted by movin'on View Post
I think this has to be the scariest thing I have ever read. This is changing my spending big time and it doesn't have so much to do with the price of gas as all of the very real signs of doom and gloom on the horizon. I don't even think I will go out to dinner tomorrow night, even though I should.
Actually did not see that much scary in this particular article -- even the "bad" list looked like a lot of good things. Shorter commutes = generally less time for the folks involved + much cleaner air for the rest of US. What is not to love?

However, this article did "soft-sell" some of the possible downside risk. For the full "scary" version >>>

Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ - broken link)

That iis sort of a combination of all worse case put together, and it is not purdy. They even call their forum "doomers" Life After the Oil Crash Forum - Index
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Old 06-28-2008, 01:09 PM
 
655 posts, read 756,887 times
Reputation: 240
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
You'd be surprised how many people in L.A. have commutes like this, and even worse ones (up to two hours a day one way), just because they're willing to sacrifice time with their families for the sake of home ownership. I'd rather continue renting an apartment only twelve miles away from my job than take on that kind of stress.

People were saying only a few months ago that oil was high at $100 a barrel, and that it wouldn't go to $150. We're only $10 away from that now, and I don't see anything stopping it from reaching $200. I'm not going to go into why oil is so high right now, but I don't see this coming down any time soon.
I made myself a promise that if oil hit $150 and above and stayed there, I was going to take $5000 of my savings and setup my own ethanol production system. If you have a 1/4 acre of property or more, it can be easily done. Produce your own fuel for about 15 cents per gallon. Once you are setup and running, it is really an easy process that anyone with a little grit and backbone can do. Screw the frrighhen oil companies and all this BS. I'll just produce my onw damn fuel and so should all those who can. Call their bluff on this run on oil.
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Old 06-28-2008, 03:35 PM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,038,162 times
Reputation: 3961
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelmate38 View Post
I made myself a promise that if oil hit $150 and above and stayed there, I was going to take $5000 of my savings and setup my own ethanol production system. If you have a 1/4 acre of property or more, it can be easily done. Produce your own fuel for about 15 cents per gallon. Once you are setup and running, it is really an easy process that anyone with a little grit and backbone can do. Screw the frrighhen oil companies and all this BS. I'll just produce my onw damn fuel and so should all those who can. Call their bluff on this run on oil.
That is interesting.

What is your preferred feedstock (e.g., corn, sugar beets, Jerusalem artichokes, potatoes, switch grass . . .. ?)
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Old 06-28-2008, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,552,724 times
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I don't think the Los Angeles area is particularly bad. The only problem with the area is it doesn't lend itself very well to public transit but there are solutions. Most of the suburbs of Los Angeles have created their own business centers and there isn't much need to commute more than 10~15 miles. For example the valley use to be your typical suburbs but now its home to a lot of business. Most residents work locally.

The issue at hand is not the traditional suburbs of Los Angeles which now have their own business districts etc, but rather the "exurbs". Among other things the house prices in these areas are crashing (see Riverside county) because the assumptions they were built around are no longer true.

Anyhow, the issue at least recently as been people buying huge ugly McMansions in these exurbs for less than they could get in the LA area. Most of the LA area has already been built so there is little room to put these hideous homes. God forbid a middle class family be stuck in a 1500 sf home.
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Old 06-29-2008, 02:53 PM
 
3,283 posts, read 4,752,776 times
Reputation: 753
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
Here is an interesting article about how life would change:

Envisioning a world of $200-a-barrel oil - Los Angeles Times

it will be 200 before the years out, unless ben bernanke grows a pair of balls
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