U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 07-06-2008, 11:19 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,884 posts, read 5,288,324 times
Reputation: 2737

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
I juts think we are at a crossroads in the world economy really has more to do with china and others growth than the USA. It is as big a chnage as going from a agriculture sociaety to an industrial society. Alot of people are going to be displaced as a result like always.
It's sad that people here in the US are so short term and so myopic.

If gas goes up from $2 to $4 in 5 years, that's a very small domestic cycle.

But no one sees the bigger super cycle (China, India, Brazil), or even thinks that way.

The US has gotten far too leveraged off of what will happen tomorrow. Or what Oprah will say. Or Oprah's book selection.

But that's one infinitesimal cycle in the larger gear of the world. Who's going to care about Oprah's books when China passes us in 20 years?

The Chinese are becoming engineers, Brazil is feeding the world commodities....and we sit here and watch stupidity.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-06-2008, 11:48 PM
 
396 posts, read 748,795 times
Reputation: 191
I think it all depends on whether or not American can learn to adapt to the end of cheap oil. I mean it's hard to predict oil prices but i wouldn't be surprised if they keep going up. If amercan's don't wake the flip up then hard times are coming. However if people start realizing what it's gonna mean to adapt to a high price energy economy maybe there's some hope. I mean the infrastructure of U.S.A needs to be rebuilt and designed completely and it must be done while energy is relatively cheap, otherwise the suburbs will turn into slums.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 12:27 AM
 
Location: Ohio
21,264 posts, read 15,049,712 times
Reputation: 17672
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleDolphin View Post
Do you think we're entering into our generations' Great Depression? Or merely a hic-cup in the road, soon to be healed?
You're looking at a mild recession beginning 4th Quarter 2008 or 1st Quarter 2009 that will continually worsen over the next 6 years until the US enters a full blown depression for about 8 years.

Unless you're willing to send your sons/daughters or grandsons/granddaughters to die in foreign lands, there's nothing you can do to stop it.

The fact that $1 = 0.63 Euros has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Federal Reserve, or its policies, or interest rates, or the "housing bubble" or anything else. It has to do with decades of abusive foreign policy, decades of abusive trade policy, especially Clinton's Washington Consensus, and the fact that there is now a viable alternative to the US$ in the form of the Euro, and two up and coming viable alternatives in the Ruble and Yuan.

The world has spoken and the world wants to conduct trade in Euros, or in Rubles or in basket currencies which may or may not include the US$.

That's just the way it is and everyone needs to accept it as reality and deal with it.

Indonesia left OPEC in May because like Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Venezuela, and non-OPEC members Singapore and Malaysia, it wants to sell its oil in Euros and/or basket currencies, especially Malaysia which has chaffed under Clinton's Washington Consensus.

As each of those countries ultimately does so, the US$ will drop another 2 points against the Euro and more against other currencies, like the Ruble, because demand for the US$ will decline.

If the oil and natural gas in the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is sold in Euros, Rubles and basket currencies and not sold in US$, the US$ will drop significantly more, possibly as low as $1 = 0.26 Euros over the next 12 years or so.

It is the declining US$ in conjunction with shortages of commodities like wheat, rice, corn, oil and certain metals (like copper) that is driving Cost Inflation (not to be confused with Currency Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Inflation or Wage Inflation).

I hope you're setting aside money for this fall, because you have 7 ethanol plants under expansion and 71 under construction, with 23 scheduled to being operations now. Corn prices will increase and with damage to corn fields because of recent flooding and storms.

Corn is now over $7.50 which is double the price from 1 year ago and may go to $10+/bushel because of damaged crops.

Then next year the remaining 48 ethanol plants open and there are 100+ in the planning and site selection phase now to being operation before 2012.

You're getting hit with rising prices and as the US$ declines prices rise even higher. It erodes your disposable income forcing you to make choices: eat out 12 times a week or pay the cell phone bill before its cut off, buy groceries or pay the cable/satellite bill, buy clothes or buy gasoline. The choices get harder as time goes along: buy food or pay rent/mortgage.

That's how it will be for next 15 years or so. Get used to phrases like "house-husband" and "home-sharing" since the US will permanently lose about 50 Million to 52 Million jobs (as in those people will spend the rest of their lives looking for work and never find it but most will give up after 4 to 10 years).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 12:46 AM
 
6 posts, read 11,150 times
Reputation: 13
Hi Mircea,
Your forecast makes interesting reading. I was surprised that you didn't mention the rising US Budget deficit. Is it true that the interest payments alone are quickly becoming unaffordable, let alone reducing the deficit itself? Won't the US economy hit a brick wall in 5-7 years [when the government has no money to pay its own workers] unless there are huge changes made now ???
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 07:28 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 24,253,912 times
Reputation: 4927
I still believe that the Federal Reserve has to be reformed, or eliminated. The other problem is energy, its production has almost peaked and that will stop economic "growth". Government is a parasite and has grown so large that it hinders innovation and new businesses. I see bad times ahead for the US and hyperinflation. At least the unrest will help chase out gentrification.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 09:12 AM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,038,162 times
Reputation: 3961
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

Unless you're willing to send your sons/daughters or grandsons/granddaughters to die in foreign lands, there's nothing you can do to stop it.
Or quit oil. oh gee, can't do that.


Quote:
I hope you're setting aside money for this fall, because you have 7 ethanol plants under expansion and 71 under construction, with 23 scheduled to being operations now. Corn prices will increase and with damage to corn fields because of recent flooding and storms.
Sound a little out-of-date on that part. Ethanol plants are presently being stopped, plans tabled, and the other new ones that cannot be shut down by other means -- bankrupted and abandoned.


Quote:

You're getting hit with rising prices and as the US$ declines prices rise even higher. It erodes your disposable income forcing you to make choices: eat out 12 times a week or pay the cell phone bill before its cut off, buy groceries or pay the cable/satellite bill, buy clothes or buy gasoline. The choices get harder as time goes along: buy food or pay rent/mortgage.

wow, the horrors.

American grown-ups having to watch their money, manage their resources, budget and act like responsible grown-ups? Think it will catch on or just be a fad?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 09:34 AM
 
7 posts, read 26,157 times
Reputation: 10
Dude! You've left me speechless ;-)...that was a really nice one mate….hope we can pull more of this kind
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,133,124 times
Reputation: 1187
Default Ethanol plants

My dad is a corn farmer and I know a few things about ethanol. It doesn't work. It takes more coal energy to make ethanol than it produces. The most efficient energy-wise way to make ethanol is to use sugar cane, which can be bought cheaply from Brazil if we would only remove tariffs that benefit US growers. All this does is protect US growers and make sugar unnecessarily expensive. We can also make ethanol from sorghum, which is much more efficient than ethanol.

Ethanol plants are now facing financial difficulties because corn, their main input, has gotten too expensive. Yes, gas has gone up to $4 a gallon but corn went from $2.50 to $7.50 a bushel. My dad has turned down numerous opportunities to invest in ethanol plants as he does not view it as sustainable. I am amazed the ethanol boom has lasted this long. Perhaps, it will last another 5 years.

Farmers are raking in the dough now, with corn crop reduced due to flooding. Our yields are off, but we will still average 170 bushel corn (we average 200 during bumper crops). Bean yields will also be good, 65, with prices nearing $15/bushel. We are about 60 percent corn, 35 percent beans and 5 percent wheat as part of our crop rotation. We also grew 20 acres of hay this year, but with only 100 head of cattle we are basically hobby cattle farmers at this point and have been for the last 10 years. Grain is our primary farm function.

I am not a commodities expert but it is interesting to note that you cannot lock in some future delivery dates on corn. Is this because the traders are expecting prices to drop or is there something else going on here? All I know is that my father is glad he didn't lock in any delivery dates yet for corn as prices continue to rise. It should also be noted that agriculture inputs (seed, fertilizer, pesticide, insecticide) have doubled in price this year. Fortunately, we prepaid for our inputs last year, but will experience the price increases next season. So, it is not just the farmers, but the agribusinesses that are cashing in.

How long will this last, who knows. My aunt is an ag lender and they are expecting this will not last. I don't see the declines of the early 1980s happening in land prices but we will see.

I am just a commercial banker out of Chicago with a farm background, so your guess is as good as mine.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 11:30 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,476,345 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelmate38 View Post
Remember, those who get rich, do so at times just like these. I've been waiting years for this oportunity. I watched all the CNBC pimps on my TV when the DOW was pushing 15,000 and smiled and said......every dog has its day and today is not yet mine. I knew it would come. However, I still don't think my day has quiet arrived. I'm predicting a DOW of 7000 for a bottom area. Then I'll put the majority of my cash to work. I am actually predicting a modest depression and not just a recession. So yes, a little more then a bump or hicup prediction from me.

Everything is bad out there, not just a few aspects. Remember, again, people do make money and actually gain wealth in times like these. The bargains are galore! Do you have the baalls to step up and make a move is the real question.
You got it about right. For the ones who were patient and self disiplined enough to save their cash and not get caught up in the debt driven mania. there will be some truly sweet deals to be had. It is all about keeping your head when all about you are loosing theirs.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-07-2008, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,425 posts, read 45,464,656 times
Reputation: 10419
There are a few decent localized economies across the country. They might only call it a mild recession. But make no mistake about it, there are some areas that are defined as a depression. Take Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami to name a few.

Those of you who are saying we are in a hicup are living in a shell. Open you eyes and look around. It's so hard to see hurt and pain as well as others misfortunes when it does not affect you.

Right here, one in 44 homes are in foreclosure. Can you comprehend this number? One in every 44 homes. How can anyone see good in this? Those foreclosures represent ex-homeowners who are even having trouble renting now because of their credit. They will not be a home buyer again for at least 5 years. That's a whole lot of home buyers out of the buyer market for a long time.

Many bad areas have lost 50% off the value of their homes. Forget the bad mortgages. How many of you have 50% equity and are able to lose it and say you are still fine?

There have been other recessions in our history but never has falling home prices combined with rising gas prices. This one is different. We are in for a total economic crash. What is that? No one knows because we never had one. Mark my words. We have seen nothing yet. But those of you who still have a job and current with your mortgage have no idea. Have no fear, your blinders will fall soon too.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

¬© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top