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We already have a consumption tax like the FairTax. It's called inflation. Now you see what the damaging effects that a regressive tax like the FairTax will have on the economy.
There are a few decent localized economies across the country. They might only call it a mild recession. But make no mistake about it, there are some areas that are defined as a depression. Take Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami to name a few.
Those of you who are saying we are in a hicup are living in a shell. Open you eyes and look around. It's so hard to see hurt and pain as well as others misfortunes when it does not affect you.
Right here, one in 44 homes are in foreclosure. Can you comprehend this number? One in every 44 homes. How can anyone see good in this? Those foreclosures represent ex-homeowners who are even having trouble renting now because of their credit. They will not be a home buyer again for at least 5 years. That's a whole lot of home buyers out of the buyer market for a long time.
Many bad areas have lost 50% off the value of their homes. Forget the bad mortgages. How many of you have 50% equity and are able to lose it and say you are still fine?
There have been other recessions in our history but never has falling home prices combined with rising gas prices. This one is different. We are in for a total economic crash. What is that? No one knows because we never had one. Mark my words. We have seen nothing yet. But those of you who still have a job and current with your mortgage have no idea. Have no fear, your blinders will fall soon too.
Sure, I track you desertsun . . . . but think about this for a minute. The houses are only going to their real value. Cheap and cheaper. Low cost housing is not a bad thing for most the people in the country. All the pain is in the dawdling in getting them there.
Really means with a house swap, or new entry folks buying a house now face a 50% reduction in payments. That is a good thing for most real-world-go-to-work people. Talking about real, genuine 50% reduction in payments, there -- not some of the scammy zero-down-interest-only-ARM nonsense that elevated those same houses to their peak make-believe-double-reality prices.
Your whole "50% equity" line is myth. Either you own a house or you do not. If the paper value of a house was $500K, but now in truth is only a paper $250K, the same house is still worth one same house. No gain or loss. But using your model, at 50%, and my sample of $500K gone to $250K .. . one would still owe $250K -- the same paper amount that the payee ever did.
We already have a consumption tax like the FairTax. It's called inflation. Now you see what the damaging effects that a regressive tax like the FairTax will have on the economy.
this is assuming that the rich actually pay taxes instead exploiting the 64,000 page tax code. believe me, there are all sorts of unique ways to shelter income and high dollar people will spend high dollars to find ways to get out of taxes.
the fair tax isn't regressive. the fair tax is the only fair tax system out there. a tax on consumption doesn't punish productivity like the income tax and it encourages saving/investing over consumption. imagine getting your full paycheck each week (no FICA or income tax with holdings), getting rid of capital gains, corporate taxes, and everyone actually paying taxes instead of cheating the system (drug dealers, pimps, prostitutes, racketeers, gamblers, and big dollar people that shelter their money from taxation). Imagine how much easier it will be to conduct business here. Imagine how much cheaper the cost of doing business will get when we get rid of corporate taxes. Plus, everyone gets a rebate check each month to cover the poverty level. abolishing the federal reserve and enacting the fair tax (and evenutally lowering rates) is the only cure for this economy.
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By repealing the entire income tax code – the AMT, withholding, personal and corporate income tax, capital gains and the gift and estate tax and replacing it with a single rate, revenue neutral 23% national sales tax you achieve simplicity, protect seniors and the poor, and make the system transparent. But most importantly you solve the long-term solvency problem of Social Security. (http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=4390 - broken link)
(http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=4390 - broken link)
How? First it will be collected from 300 million Americans and 40 million visitors to our shores. According to Professor Dale Jorgenson of Harvard University’s School of Economics who participated in the four years and $20 million of research that went into the FairTax, revenues to Social Security and Medicare would double as the size of the economy doubles within fifteen years after the installation of the FairTax.
(http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=4390 - broken link)
Jorgenson to House Ways and Means Committee
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By repealing the entire income tax code – the AMT, withholding, personal and corporate income tax, capital gains and the gift and estate tax and replacing it with a single rate, revenue neutral 23% national sales tax you achieve simplicity, protect seniors and the poor, and make the system transparent. But most importantly you solve the long-term solvency problem of Social Security. (http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=4390 - broken link)
(http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=4390 - broken link)
How? First it will be collected from 300 million Americans and 40 million visitors to our shores. According to Professor Dale Jorgenson of Harvard University’s School of Economics who participated in the four years and $20 million of research that went into the FairTax, revenues to Social Security and Medicare would double as the size of the economy doubles within fifteen years after the installation of the FairTax.
(http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=4390 - broken link)
Jorgenson to House Ways and Means Committee
Remember, those who get rich, do so at times just like these. I've been waiting years for this oportunity. I watched all the CNBC pimps on my TV when the DOW was pushing 15,000 and smiled and said......every dog has its day and today is not yet mine. I knew it would come. However, I still don't think my day has quiet arrived. I'm predicting a DOW of 7000 for a bottom area. Then I'll put the majority of my cash to work. I am actually predicting a modest depression and not just a recession. So yes, a little more then a bump or hicup prediction from me.
Everything is bad out there, not just a few aspects. Remember, again, people do make money and actually gain wealth in times like these. The bargains are galore! Do you have the baalls to step up and make a move is the real question.
Are you going to write a book about it and sell it later or are you going to let us know exactly how you plan to strike? How exactly are you going to put that money to work? I'd love to know!
And they do that and all of a sudden certain items will become "tax free" for one reason or another to benefit one group over another and that list will grow and grow.
The rich will always find or buy their way to little to no taxes.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,506,556 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleDolphin
Do you think we're entering into our generations' Great Depression? Or merely a hic-cup in the road, soon to be healed?
It will be neither a Depression or a hic-cup. It will be something in between. I think for the next couple of years will be tough on the U.S. overall but will not kill us.
Here's what I see happening coming in the next decade:
1. We will probably see some demand destruction for oil in both India and China because they will eventually be forced to cut back the government subsidies for oil. This will lower the price of oil overall but the cost will still be on the higher side. My total guesstimate is that the lowest it could possibly get it down to $80 a barrel in a couple of years or so. But I don't think we will see it ever get lower than that.
2. Now if I'm correct that oil will still be in the $80 dollar or higher per barrel range for oil in the longterm. This will make manufacturing and shipping goods from overseas prohibitory expensive. This in turn can create an opportunity for Manufacturing to return to the united states. Basically build your products closer to home to keep down the costs. Also I was listening to the bloomberg yesterday and there was talk of American steel doing quite well in the coming years because china and India will need more and more steel to help build their crowning infrastructure. So that might be a boon for the American economy.
3. Even though I think China and India will take a hit to there economies if/when they pull the major parts of there oil subsidies. I still think both of their middle classes will continue to grow and will continue to what consumer goods. Basically these two countries will be self sustaining/growing economies that will buy the products that are made in their countries. Now since these two countries will still be building more factories to meet demand and plowing over rice fields in the name of progress. This will open up the opportunity for American farming to grown exponentially. We have always been great at growing food and I think demand will be high in the next decade or so from overseas. And this demand will spur more people in the U.S. to take up careers/lifestyle as farmers in order to make a comfortable living.
4. I think that Mom and Pops type businesses will make a comeback. Why? Well because even with the possible return of some manufacturing and farming there still won't be enough jobs to to round for everybody. Basically a lot of American will be forced to "make" their own jobs. Whether it a store, restaurant, car dealership, tax accountant office, etc., etc. people will start business to survive in a changing America/world economy. Now of course there still will be giant multicorp/chain stores with the power to hand down lower prices. But I think as more people are forced to become self employed, these same people may start to consider going to a Mom and Pop businesses that have higher prices over the chains because they are stuck in the same type of situation. Basically as Ben Franklin said " We can all hang together or we can all hang separately." Granted we will have to see if we have the fortitude for sweeping change in the dynamics of how we do day to day business in America.
Sure starting to feel like the Big One. Should have "sold in May and walked away." Oh well, shoulda, coulda...no Warren Buffet am I...sigh.
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