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Old 07-07-2008, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,390,015 times
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Its on its way back up in European trading - over $141.50 now. I think at best we can hope for stabilization in the 140s for the time being.
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:00 PM
 
Location: New York City
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There isn't a bubble. There is not a glut of stored oil anywhere.
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorkdoc View Post
There isn't a bubble. There is not a glut of stored oil anywhere.
You generally don't know bubbles for sure until after they burst, as it appears to investors that it is the real deal. Its the same way with oil. However, the run from $50 to $150 in a year without any real reason such as a war in Iran is absurd and unsustainable.
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
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Looks like Lehman is out of the oil trading business for a while..they've been barred from one of the key unregulated market traders while they are under review. Now this is not Lehman trading for it's customers..this is Lehman trading for itself.

This just adds a little credence to the hype that all that Fed borrowing is being plowed into commodities so the banks can make back some money.

Platts review bars Lehman from key oil trade window | Markets | Reuters
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:12 PM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,038,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
You generally don't know bubbles for sure until after they burst, as it appears to investors that it is the real deal. Its the same way with oil. However, the run from $50 to $150 in a year without any real reason such as a war in Iran is absurd and unsustainable.
Except that . . . oh maybe . . . in real measurable numbers, demand is not meeting supply?

But I agree, the US will not sustain this game too long. We will be flat broke in a year or two.

Game over.
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,390,015 times
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I say we will go over $150 by the end of the week. We shoud top out at $160-170 before going down to $120-130 in the fall. I don't think we will hit $200 this year. We are already starting to see resistance as speculators try to find reasons to push the price higher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Except that . . . oh maybe . . . in real measurable numbers, demand is not meeting supply?

But I agree, the US will not sustain this game too long. We will be flat broke in a year or two.

Game over.

Demand is meeting supply right now. Much of the price increase is hedges against inflation due to the falling dollar, and the fundamentals are that 5-10 years out, demand from China and India will have grown to a point where supply might not meet demand. However, a lot can happen in 5-10 years. Currently the fundamentals should support anywhere from $40 to $100 depending on who you ask, but only the most doom and gloom peak oilers really believe $150 is justified.
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Old 07-08-2008, 12:49 PM
 
655 posts, read 756,887 times
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Told ya all so. Oil down about $10 a barrel in the past 48 hours! Damn, wish I had of shorted oil. should have listened to that oil executive, big wig! He says another $5-$6 and the panic selling will hit. Then a gradual, steady drop from there.
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Old 07-08-2008, 12:52 PM
 
48,509 posts, read 86,088,090 times
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Oil bubble is just like the housing will never go down ;people conning themselves in to believeing oil will crash. The fundalmentals are just not there. There is little surplus production left in the world.Each time there is instability of any kind where oil is produced in will spike.Then itwill never go down until inventories sabalize which can take a longtime. With China and india growing use we may see shortages in the fututre if we don't start doing something effective.
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Old 07-08-2008, 01:07 PM
 
55,016 posts, read 43,857,810 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
You generally don't know bubbles for sure until after they burst, as it appears to investors that it is the real deal. Its the same way with oil. However, the run from $50 to $150 in a year without any real reason such as a war in Iran is absurd and unsustainable.
Do you consider the devaluation of the US currency a real reason? I do.
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Old 07-08-2008, 01:28 PM
 
717 posts, read 629,398 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Oil bubble is just like the housing will never go down ;people conning themselves in to believeing oil will crash. The fundalmentals are just not there. There is little surplus production left in the world.Each time there is instability of any kind where oil is produced in will spike.Then itwill never go down until inventories sabalize which can take a longtime. With China and india growing use we may see shortages in the fututre if we don't start doing something effective.
Housing will never go down? Maybe I do not understand what you are saying but how can you say housing will never go down?
The fundamentals in oil are just not there to support a 50% return on investment over 1 year. .

Last edited by AJGIANTS; 07-08-2008 at 01:31 PM.. Reason: addition
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