Could the Congress, Federal Reserve and The President really lower the cost of oil if they really tried?

[bchris02]

Originally Posted by Philip T

On a bright note we *only* have to drop 10 to 20% consumption per year to stay ahead of the collapse.

We definately need to start conserving, but I think reality is somewhere between Simmons and Williams. Conserving now would be the best way to really help the situation. Unfortunately this country is too spoiled and lazy to make the small sacrifices it would take i.e. driving slower and driving a higher mpg vehicle.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by bchris02

We definately need to start conserving, but I think reality is somewhere between Simmons and Williams. Conserving now would be the best way to really help the situation. Unfortunately this country is too spoiled and lazy to make the small sacrifices it would take i.e. driving slower and driving a higher mpg vehicle.

dunno if you have ever seen or dealt with drunks or junkies. They do not need to drink or shoot "less," they need to STOP. Even Bush (omg, cannot believe I am ref'ing him a good light) describes the US as an oil junkie.

It goes WAY beyond some trivial nonsense like checking the air in your tires. Consider the corporate idiots of America sponsor NASCAR, and the idiots of America watch it. Burn fuel, turn left. Serious stupid. We are dealing with some hard-core stupid junkies, top-to-bottom.

But overall, I tend to deal in real numbers -- enginerd type -- From what I have seen the real numbers favor the Simmons model . . . and he is an optimist.

[tallrick]

You cannot stop using oil unless you want to live like the Amish, and there simply is not enough room! This country simply does not have the manufacturing capacity to rebuild the transportation network, and rapidly depreciating dollars to pay for it. My opinion is that Congress should force the FED to stop inflation at any cost, and let the real estate speculators face reality. It will take a shock to convince people to stop spending money they don't have. Money that was flipping houses needs to be growing fuel. I know that the government is clueless because it is run by lawyers, not scientists. It will be sad to see the decline of the US as the years go on.

[bchris02]

Originally Posted by Philip T

From what I have seen the real numbers favor the Simmons model . . . and he is an optimist.

Simmons, and his prediction of 200 million Americans dead by 2020 is not an optimist. Most of the time throughout history, extreme doom and gloom predictions have been wrong. NASCAR is a waste, but its a free country and they have the right to do it. If we really do have an oil shortage, events such as NASCAR and the yearly college road trip will take second priority to shipping coal to power plants and transporting food.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by tallrick

"Promote policies for a stronger dollar" If they can do this the oil/energy situation would be resolved by the market. But all the FED can do is create inflation, they have no will to restore the value of money. It is hyperinflation they want!

In a word, sound money.

This should be the first step. The others would follow.

The government has clumsily manipulated the price mechanism, the unit of account and store of value, and that's why consumption and production patterns, both domestically and internationally, are way out of balance.

Let the market, and not the Fed, set the rate for this very basic "commodity", i.e. economic decision-making based on the price mechanism, then we would all have the right signals on how to manage real-asset commodities more efficiently.

But with everyone high on the money supply, we have chaos, it's mathematical.

[texdav]

Basically not now but they could in five years if we start drilling and producing more. There amybe some lowering on expectation but that is hard toi calculate really. The thing is that if we don't there will be shortages in coming years. Plus the fact that we won't be sending those dollars overseas to un reliable areas but keep the moneyhere more so.I saw a program on the speech on oil by presidents. Carter said in the 70's that the governamnt will make sure we never again got caught like in teh 70's by never again importing more than 40% of our oil becuase we would up production domestically.Congress managed to stop that in its tracks.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by bchris02

Simmons, and his prediction of 200 million Americans dead by 2020 is not an optimist. Most of the time throughout history, extreme doom and gloom predictions have been wrong. NASCAR is a waste, but its a free country and they have the right to do it. If we really do have an oil shortage, events such as NASCAR and the yearly college road trip will take second priority to shipping coal to power plants and transporting food.

That was, of course, tongue-in-cheek.

But the 50% or higher die-off is possible on the road we are on.

And you are correct that the Worst Case generally does not happen. As does neither the Best Case. But both are worth study so as to mitigate the Worst, and to be able to profit and thrive in the Best.

Always the most likely case is the Changed Case. Things go on, but they are changed. Choosing a successful Changed Case most often leads to a practical solution. That is really all I am advocating -- Change from oil to electricity and romp on the down the road. Or stay in the past and die. Change happens whether we plan for it or not.

I am counting the most important item (over Nasty-Car, power plants, or transport) is growing food. That is why I am now playing in the Electric Farm realm.

Ponder question for you? Do you think Electric Nascar would be popular with the Morons of America (tm)?

[Dd714]

Short term or long term? First the silly ideas - "take the government off oil". Well yeah, that's the general consensus for maybe a 50 to 100 year goal, to do that tommorrow, or next year, will collapse the economy for obvious reasons.

Short term fixes -
1.) Get rid of the federal gas tax, that will instantly lower gas prices about 20 cents a gallon or so. If states get rid of their tax as well that could be another savings of 40 cents a gallon, depending on state. Immeidate savings of 60 cents a gallon. McCain is recommending to due away with federal gas taxes.
2.) Open up oil reserves. Will increase supply and reduce prices at least a little bit.
3.) Legislation easing some of the state fuel mix/additive requirements can have a semi-immeidate effect on prices. i.e. - EPA not requiring one fuel blend in Chicago, another in Oklahoma, another in Cleveland, all that require seperate expensive processing refinement steps.
4.) Passing any legistlature that even hints at long term effect on easing supply concerns will have an immidiate impact on prices. Easing environmental restrictions on drilling or refinement productions will have an immediate physcological impact on oil futures speculators, which drive much of the price.
5.) MAYBE some control over oil speculation. Regulate that more since that seems to be driving price over supply and demand market conditions. Not sure how to do that. SEC or federal reserve have to step in. I say this reluctantly because they can screw things up even more.

remember any of the above steps have an impact in other areas - less tax revenue, more environmental damage, and the tendency for the government to screw up anything they try to "fix".

Long Term fixes - obviously this is where the "get the government out of oil" idea works. Reduce consumption will reduce demand. But hey it's not easy or quick. Government does not have all the power over this, they only have the power to encourage it - free enterprise has to lead the way. And it's a global issue, not a national one.
There are other policitical and economic fixes that can help as well, but they are complex - stop the falling dollar, peace on earth, and all that. Not an easy thing for any president or government to balance out all the variables.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by Dd714

Short term or long term? First the silly ideas - "take the government off oil". Well yeah, that's the general consensus for maybe a 50 to 100 year goal, to do that tommorrow, or next year, will collapse the economy for obvious reasons.

I follow you are not in the energy industry. There is not 50 to 100 years left in this game. Shell's studies call for all-out shortages at any price by 2014 to 2015. But we will not be able to afford to play by then, anyway.

Short term fixes -
1.) Get rid of the federal gas tax, that will instantly lower gas prices about 20 cents a gallon or so. If states get rid of their tax as well that could be another savings of 40 cents a gallon, depending on state. Immeidate savings of 60 cents a gallon. McCain is recommending to due away with federal gas taxes.

No taxes, so then . . . . they would stop maintaining and building highways? That would save a lot of fuel, as the highways would be shut down within a couple of years.

2.) Open up oil reserves. Will increase supply and reduce prices at least a little bit.

No, it really does not. The consumption rate sucks up every drop available. The more the supply, the more the demand.

3.) Legislation easing some of the state fuel mix/additive requirements can have a semi-immeidate effect on prices. i.e. - EPA not requiring one fuel blend in Chicago, another in Oklahoma, another in Cleveland, all that require seperate expensive processing refinement steps.

Talking dimes on dollars. Or more like pennies.

4.) Passing any legistlature that even hints at long term effect on easing supply concerns will have an immidiate impact on prices. Easing environmental restrictions on drilling or refinement productions will have an immediate physcological impact on oil futures speculators, which drive much of the price.

Real folks are buying every real drop pumped. World production of near 85 million barrels a day, coupled with world consumption of around 86 million barrels is not psychology. It is physical, numerical reality.

5.) MAYBE some control over oil speculation. Regulate that more since that seems to be driving price over supply and demand market conditions. Not sure how to do that. SEC or federal reserve have to step in. I say this reluctantly because they can screw things up even more.

Any math for that at all? Any?

Sorry, I follow you are sincere, but this does not match any of the truth on the ground.

Long Term fixes - obviously this is where the "get the government out of oil" idea works. Reduce consumption will reduce demand. But hey it's not easy or quick. Government does not have all the power over this, they only have the power to encourage it - free enterprise has to lead the way. And it's a global issue, not a national one.

Government has HUGE control over its own consumption, in the here and now. Especially the military. We are wasting $12 billion a month in Iraq, alone. That can begin to end tomorrow. HUGE savings, instantly.

[Dd714]

Originally Posted by Philip T

I follow you are not in the energy industry. There is not 50 to 100 years left in this game, *** *** *** ***...

I do agree. The point I was trying to make was that it's a process that takes years, not months (reduce oil dependency). Others and myself have riduculed your suggestion that we get out of oil now, so don't get angry. We all support your idea, it's just a long term goal. Needs to start with it now, reduce each year, but it will be years before we reduce to 100%

As for the rest - when your responses have a little more content then "no it does not" we can debate. I see you left off my caveat that each short term fix has a negative reaction. That's called taking my responses out of context.