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Old 07-16-2008, 04:37 PM
 
Location: Western Mass.
605 posts, read 2,244,530 times
Reputation: 309

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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
I dont know about a Bangledesh but we are heading right for another Great Depression. All the signs are there.

Last year only 3 banks folded all year. This year we have 5 fold so far with several more on the brink. Citibank and WAMU are discussing bankruptcy.

Just 3 years ago, one in 7 Americans were on some form of Govt assistance. Today it is one in 6. Experts say by 2009 it will be one in 5.

Trillions of dollars in lost home equity.
People living off credit cards just to eat and buy gas.
$5.00 gas just months away.
Food prices twice what they were 3 years ago.
Growing global imbalances in the world economy is pretty hard not to see.
The US dollar is worth less then the paper it is written on.
Record foreclosures everywhere expecially Las Vegas, Miami and So. Cal.
Las Vegas has one in every 44 homes in foreclosure.
China is buying up our companies all over.
So many many of our jobs going to China.
The remaining jobs are taken by illegal aliens who work for $7/hr.
Raises are something we will read in history books.
Only Unions and Govt jobs still give raises. The very best companies toss a token quarter an hour per year for their best employees.
The ever fattening Federal debt is about a dollar from collapse.

What we are in for is going to make 1928 look like a blip on the map. Mark my words. Im saving this post and will repost it when it all crashes.
Well most of us will have had our internet cut off by then so knock yourself out.
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Old 07-16-2008, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Papillion
2,589 posts, read 9,688,924 times
Reputation: 898
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
Trillions of dollars in lost home equity.
The market was overinflated to begin with - this is the market righting itself and getting the people out of the market that should have bought in the first place (see comment on foreclosures).

Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
People living off credit cards just to eat and buy gas.
A lot of the folks that are doing this have also been living beyond their means... too much debt, too much stuff... their own stupidity and greed put them in the situation

Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
Record foreclosures everywhere expecially Las Vegas, Miami and So. Cal.
Las Vegas has one in every 44 homes in foreclosure.
People were buying too much house (greedy) for what they could reasonably afford - they were also going for the cheap end of the ARM rates without thinking about the contractual rate increases (stupidity on their part). A lot of these foreclosures are because of the individual's stupid and greedy actions. If they would have bought within their means (and that means based on the potential ARM rate not the introductory ARM rate) then they would still be in their homes.

The market is doing what I think it should - its correcting itself and waking people up from their own laziness.
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
2,305 posts, read 2,752,646 times
Reputation: 917
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
I dont know about a Bangledesh but we are heading right for another Great Depression. All the signs are there.

Last year only 3 banks folded all year. This year we have 5 fold so far with several more on the brink. Citibank and WAMU are discussing bankruptcy.

Just 3 years ago, one in 7 Americans were on some form of Govt assistance. Today it is one in 6. Experts say by 2009 it will be one in 5.

Trillions of dollars in lost home equity.
People living off credit cards just to eat and buy gas.
$5.00 gas just months away.
Food prices twice what they were 3 years ago.
Growing global imbalances in the world economy is pretty hard not to see.
The US dollar is worth less then the paper it is written on.
Record foreclosures everywhere expecially Las Vegas, Miami and So. Cal.
Las Vegas has one in every 44 homes in foreclosure.
China is buying up our companies all over.
So many many of our jobs going to China.
The remaining jobs are taken by illegal aliens who work for $7/hr.
Raises are something we will read in history books.
Only Unions and Govt jobs still give raises. The very best companies toss a token quarter an hour per year for their best employees.
The ever fattening Federal debt is about a dollar from collapse.

What we are in for is going to make 1928 look like a blip on the map. Mark my words. Im saving this post and will repost it when it all crashes.
Very interesting! But you could probably safely delete this post.
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:03 PM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,425 posts, read 45,513,833 times
Reputation: 10419
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonrob View Post
Well most of us will have had our internet cut off by then so knock yourself out.
Ya got a good point there.
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,425 posts, read 45,513,833 times
Reputation: 10419
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebigr View Post
Very interesting! But you could probably safely delete this post.
It must be nice to be wealthy as you. Can you tell us about it?
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:09 PM
 
28,905 posts, read 47,997,167 times
Reputation: 46174
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
I dont know about a Bangledesh but we are heading right for another Great Depression. All the signs are there.

Last year only 3 banks folded all year. This year we have 5 fold so far with several more on the brink. Citibank and WAMU are discussing bankruptcy.

Just 3 years ago, one in 7 Americans were on some form of Govt assistance. Today it is one in 6. Experts say by 2009 it will be one in 5.

Trillions of dollars in lost home equity.
People living off credit cards just to eat and buy gas.
$5.00 gas just months away.
Food prices twice what they were 3 years ago.
Growing global imbalances in the world economy is pretty hard not to see.
The US dollar is worth less then the paper it is written on.
Record foreclosures everywhere expecially Las Vegas, Miami and So. Cal.
Las Vegas has one in every 44 homes in foreclosure.
China is buying up our companies all over.
So many many of our jobs going to China.
The remaining jobs are taken by illegal aliens who work for $7/hr.
Raises are something we will read in history books.
Only Unions and Govt jobs still give raises. The very best companies toss a token quarter an hour per year for their best employees.
The ever fattening Federal debt is about a dollar from collapse.

What we are in for is going to make 1928 look like a blip on the map. Mark my words. Im saving this post and will repost it when it all crashes.
Yeah, every five years, some lunatics unversed in economics run around in circles and waves their arms. It happened after World War II, it happened in the late 50s, it happened in 1970, 1974, 1979, 1987, 1991, etc. etc. etc.

-- People are living off credit cards to buy food. Actually, the biggest expense in average households today are discretionary. So maybe if you can convince households to stop buying 200 tennis shoes, maybe we could get the credit issues under control.

-- $5.00 gas is just months away. Well, first, given a $10 drop per barrel of oil in the past three days, I don't think so. Especially since inventories are increasing. Why? Because people are driving less. Hmmmm....

-- Food prices twice what they were. Well, let's thank the fine folks who gave us ethanol subsidies for that. But since that's in the process of getting scrapped, I think we face a temporary situation there.

-- Record foreclosures in California, Las Vegas, et al. Lots of people bought houses they had no business buying. Lots of developers kept on building houses when there was no conceivable buyers for them. Guess what? The market took care of it, and people two years from now will be buying a lot of bargain houses. Meanwhile, where I live, one house in 2,400 is going into foreclosure. Not exactly the end times, if you ask me.

-- Growing global imbalances in the world economy. Are you kidding me? Developing countries have actually begun closing the gap. Meanwhile, yeah, the dollar's lower. However, it has also meant a huge export boom. Right now, according to economic indicators, it's beginning to look like 3Q GDP will actually be on line to grow 3.0%. Not exactly an economic collapse.

-- China is buying up our companies. Hmmm....Japan did the exact same thing in the 1980s. Which meant all that money spent on Toyotas came right back into this country in the form of investments. Seemed to work then. It'll work now.

-- Only government and unions will get raises. Well given that we had very good income growth for the past several years, it's really not implausible that we should have a break in that growth. However, it's really worth noting that in 1979, around 13.5% of the country was earning minimum wage. Today that figure is around 2.4%. What's more, of those minimum wage workers, 60% are in the hospitality industry as waiters, maids, et al, and 80% of minimum wage workers are under the age of 24.

-- The Federal Budget Deficit. This is actually the one thing I'll agree with on. Too bad the Republicans and the Democrats have been irresponsible. So let's vote them out.

-
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,425 posts, read 45,513,833 times
Reputation: 10419
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave1215 View Post
The market was overinflated to begin with - this is the market righting itself and getting the people out of the market that should have bought in the first place (see comment on foreclosures).


A lot of the folks that are doing this have also been living beyond their means... too much debt, too much stuff... their own stupidity and greed put them in the situation


People were buying too much house (greedy) for what they could reasonably afford - they were also going for the cheap end of the ARM rates without thinking about the contractual rate increases (stupidity on their part). A lot of these foreclosures are because of the individual's stupid and greedy actions. If they would have bought within their means (and that means based on the potential ARM rate not the introductory ARM rate) then they would still be in their homes.

The market is doing what I think it should - its correcting itself and waking people up from their own laziness.
I'd say all your answers are pretty accurate. But they are just reasons why. These things really happened whether people did dumb things or not and because of these dumb things and many more, I see everything coming to a crash.

Dont be so optimistic. Things are real bad out there right now. Real bad. And with the current dictatorship we have been under for the past 7 years and the new govt you guys are supporting, it is bound to get worse. Because people......they dont give a damn about you or I. They got theirs and to hell with us peons.
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:19 PM
 
28,905 posts, read 47,997,167 times
Reputation: 46174
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
I'd say all your answers are pretty accurate. But they are just reasons why. These things really happened whether people did dumb things or not and because of these dumb things and many more, I see everything coming to a crash.

Dont be so optimistic. Things are real bad out there right now. Real bad. And with the current dictatorship we have been under for the past 7 years and the new govt you guys are supporting, it is bound to get worse. Because people......they dont give a damn about you or I. They got theirs and to hell with us peons.

No. Things are bad in Las Vegas, where you hail from. Then again, three years ago, when Las Vegas was having 10% annual growth, nobody ever looked up and said, "Hey, does anybody else here think maybe, just maybe, we're growing too fast?" I don't remember that. The Chamber of Commerce types just kept believing in unlimited growth, and now Las Vegas is paying the price. It will be painful, I'm sorry to say.

Meanwhile, in the Southern tier of states, the bank lending guidelines were far more stringent. Illegal aliens weren't being given mortgages in the South (Which was common practice out West. When that started happening, I knew the jib was up for mortgages out there). So if you look at a foreclosure map, California, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida show up as bright red, while the entire southeast shows up as blue. In my market, the unemployment rate was 3.7% last month and employers here can't find people.
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:29 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,008,453 times
Reputation: 553
I don't think we'll fall and become like Bangladish, unless there's WWIII and WWIII's epicenter was on our grounds.

Also, I don't think we'll fall into a Great Depression... mainly because of a global economy. If every nation on the planet is hurting, then I could see a Great Depression as possible. But considering that South America and Asia (including Russia) are still growing we'll just have to shift our perspective and become more of a producer nation instead of a net consumption nation.

With growing production and new leadership... we may even reduce or eliminate the national debt in a decade it's that transition that is hard.

-chuck22b
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Old 07-16-2008, 05:42 PM
 
28,905 posts, read 47,997,167 times
Reputation: 46174
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
I don't think we'll fall and become like Bangladish, unless there's WWIII and WWIII's epicenter was on our grounds.

Also, I don't think we'll fall into a Great Depression... mainly because of a global economy. If every nation on the planet is hurting, then I see a Great Depression as possible, but considering that South America and Asia (including Russia), are still growing we'll just have to shift our perspective and become more of a producer nation instead of a net consumption nation.

With growing production and new leadership... we may even reduce or eliminate the national debt in a decade

-chuck22b
Here's what people don't realize. The Great Depression was really a government caused economic disaster, not a case of the markets running amok. Want the run-down?


-- First, go back to the early 20s, when tariffs were being slapped onto agricultural imports. Before tariffs, an American farmer could sell wheat for about $1 a bushel. Three years after tariffs, because of retaliatory tariffs from other countries, American farmers could, at best, hope for 25 cents a bushel.

-- This served to seriously weaken rural banks in this country.

-- Fast forward to 1929. Simplistic people love to look at the Stock Market Crash as the cause of the Great Depression. However, the stock market has suffered similar routs since then with no long-term affect on the economy. The truth is that it was a catalyst for the real catastrophe, namely the scores of bad decision making that took place in the halls of government. Namely:

-- The Federal Reserve's disastrous decision to tighten credit, not loosen it. This is akin to fighting a small brush fire with 20 gallons of gasoline.

-- The Federal Government jacked up income taxes. This was a particularly horrible decision, especially at a time when people needed money the most.

-- Oh, and the hits just kept coming. The Hawley Smoot Tarriff act eviscerated trade.

So government caused the Great Depression. And it certainly wasn't the solution.
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