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Old 07-17-2008, 02:04 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX (Bellaire)
4,859 posts, read 12,095,972 times
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Much of the case, however, wilts under close analysis, relying as it does overwhelmingly on transient or reversible indicators. (Comparing America’s share of the global economy in the late 1940s with its share today, for example, gives a skewed result for the simple reason that much of the rest of the world was in ruins sixty years ago). Declinism gains much of its power from cherry-picking among daily reports of bad news and from the assumption that those who defend this country’s basic strength have blinkered themselves to the Hegelian logic behind America’s weakening. As with the pessimistic intellectual troughs that followed the Depression, Vietnam, and the stagflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, there is a tendency among declinists to over-extrapolate from a momentous but singular event—in this case, the Iraq War, whose wake propels many of their gloomy forecasts.

On the economic front, without minimizing the impact of today’s challenges, they will likely prove less daunting than those that plagued the U.S. in the 1970s and early 1980s. The overall size and dynamism of the economy remains unmatched, and America continues to lead the rest of the world in measures of competitiveness, technology, and innovation. Here, higher education and science count as an enormous asset. America’s major research universities lead the world in stature and rankings, occupying seventeen of the top twenty slots. Broad demographic trends also favor the United States, whereas countries typically mentioned as peer competitors sag under the weight of aging populations. This is not only true for Russia, Europe, and Japan, but also for China, whose long-standing one-child policy has had an anticipated effect.

More Here: World Affairs Journal - Falling Upwards: Declinism, The Box Set (http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2008%20-%20Summer/full-Lieber.html - broken link)
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Old 07-17-2008, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Kentucky
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Oh dear, there is no collapse. America is still doing well. I don't need to state that, it should be obvious....
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Old 07-17-2008, 04:07 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,901,138 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK View Post
DJIA was up almost 300 points in one day! You cannot ask for a better performance than that. That means confidence in the future is coming back. Oil is falling again this morning and Dow Futures are up 60! It is going to be another good day today.
I am sorry but I was wrong this morning. It was not another "good day" today. It was a FANTASTIC day today!
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Old 07-17-2008, 04:13 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 24,267,347 times
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"The stock market strode out from under the shadow of a panic in call money that so lately threatened, revived in all its old strength yesterday. Assured that the New York banks were ready with their boundless resources to prevent a money crisis, the public and the professional trader set out to repair the damage done to prices on Monday and the major part of Tuesday.

Stocks in the aggregate, though bucking a 15 per cent rate for loans, enjoyed the greatest advance they have known in a single day in the last two years. Not even the surging bull markets of the memorable year 1928 saw such a day of heavy buying."

-- New York Herald Tribune, March 28, 1929


We all know what happened later than year.
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Old 07-17-2008, 05:24 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,901,138 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
Gloom and Doom? Nah; Just for the U.S. - Barrons.com

Then again, what does Mr. Schiff know about markets? He only predicated skyrocketing food/energy prices, 50% reduction in CA/FL real estate, $1000 gold, reduction in the Dow/Gold ratio moving quickly towards parity, falling support for the dollar, Fannie/Freddie insolvency. The last domino to fall is the bond market, then it'll be too late to leave the dollar as the government will likely make it illegal.

Ironic that we are geared to replicate China/Soviet Union's former gov't command and control economy while they move speedily towards capialism?

Plus, Peter made me a ton of money over the past 5 years.

You are correct, IMO, that it was a dead cat bounce, perhaps extending into a 2nd day. Gradual bear markets have violent bull runs, just as gradual bull markets have violent bear pullbacks.
Here is an intersting tidbit from the article:
Ultimately, when currencies like the renminbi that are pegged to the dollar are allowed to float, I see the Chinese currency rising five-fold against the dollar. That would make oil a lot cheaper in China relative to what it would cost in the U.S.
A few years ago we were begging the Chinese to decouple their currency and allow it to float. We should all be thanking God that they didn't!
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