U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 07-17-2008, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,901,138 times
Reputation: 3587

Advertisements

As you know I am very optimistic on the economy. I am very optimistic on the stock market. I think both will soar in the next 12 to 24 months. But I also think that our old enemy inflation is back. And it will get worse. The dollar has been so devalued by our government that it will take more and more of them to buy the goods we import- especially OIL which is the big one. As the Fed continues its policy of running the presses non stop and pumping billions of dollars into the economy (which is working to stop the slowdown), inflation will follow as certain as day follows night. And it will be ugly. I would not be surprised to see double digit inflation within a year.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-17-2008, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,761,325 times
Reputation: 27602
We already have double digit inflation if you follow the sites that still calculate with the old formulas.

Alternate Data Series
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2008, 06:16 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,006,916 times
Reputation: 553
I'm not too worried about currency inflation or the Fed extending credit since we're actually in a deflationary environment. Prices on some goods are increasing because of global energy and commodity effects on prices. Since the global economy is slowing... I can see these temporary price increases slow down and/or dissipate. Prices reflect supply/demand and as inventories grow you'll see how that will affect prices.

The dollars fall has more to do with other country's rise and growth. As far as I'm concerned a weak dollar is fine since it'll encourage foreign investment here, make it less worthwhile for domestic companies to invest elsewhere, and force us to become more of a producer nation than a consumer nation. Ever wonder why China wants to keep their currency values low and debase their currency?? Also, the European exporters actually in the most part hate having the Euro values so high.

"As exports have been one of the engines driving the European economy, EU policy makers were particularly worried that a strong euro is forcing some European companies to leave the continent. Airbus, among other European large enterprises, had threatened to shift its production line out of the eurozone in a bid to maintain competitiveness, something which is bound to affect local investment and employment."
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_7819770.htm

It's already happening now... look at Walmart. If buying produce abroad with our weak currency is expensive, then retailers will buy produce locally. As far as I'm concerned, that means more jobs and reduced energy consumption.
http://www.capitalpress.info/main.asp?SectionID=94&SubSectionID=801&ArticleID=4 2990&TM=52917.52 (broken link)

So don't fret too much KevK, a depreciating dollar isn't such a bad thing (it'll make us buy less imports and produce more domestically). It's whether or not we are able to transition from a net consumer nation to a net producer nation that'll be hard.

-chuck22b

Last edited by chuck22b; 07-17-2008 at 06:43 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2008, 06:16 PM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,975,108 times
Reputation: 5506
How is one bullish on the stock market when the very currency it is demoninated in is slowly falling off a cliff?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2008, 08:51 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 24,267,347 times
Reputation: 4927
I am also very concerned about inflation. Stagflation is definately in our future.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2008, 09:06 PM
 
655 posts, read 758,004 times
Reputation: 240
Crank up those interest rates already Mr. Federal Reserve man!! I've been bored thus tempted into playing the stock market with mixed results. I need CDs and bonds at 5-7% so I can quit this temptation before I get bit.....again.

6-12 months will will be able to buy short term CDs at 5.5% and up. My prediction......
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2008, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,975,108 times
Reputation: 5506
Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
I am also very concerned about inflation. Stagflation is definately in our future.
It's here now. I'm not too worried though. I'm well positioned for it. I'm going to love watching the dollar collapse.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2008, 10:03 PM
 
655 posts, read 758,004 times
Reputation: 240
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexianPatriot View Post
It's here now. I'm not too worried though. I'm well positioned for it. I'm going to love watching the dollar collapse.

You must own gold? Only way I can figure one would wish for the demise of the dollar. The dollar, like it or not, is the "STOCK" of the entire USA. Wishing for it's failure is like owning a stock and hoping the company goes belly up?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-18-2008, 12:36 AM
 
Location: Ohio
21,311 posts, read 15,089,573 times
Reputation: 17741
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
We already have double digit inflation if you follow the sites that still calculate with the old formulas.

Alternate Data Series
Not exactly a premier site. Your first clue is "M3."

The US ceased publication of the M3 in March 2006. The M3 is the amount of US$ currency held by foreign banks (typically central banks).

The US claimed the M3 information is difficult and costly to tabulate, but the real reason was that countries were dumping US$ and the US ceased publication to prevent influence on other countries from dumping even more US$.

Central banks holding US$ represents about 15% of the value of the US$ against other currencies. The remaining 85% is demand for the US$ for use as a trade currency.

Many countries had refused to provide M3 data for reasons of national security, especially after Clinton and his buddy George Soros bufu'd Malaysia.

The bottom line is there's no way to know the M3 and according to his data, the exchange rate should be $1 = 1.60 Euros.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-18-2008, 01:07 AM
 
Location: Ohio
21,311 posts, read 15,089,573 times
Reputation: 17741
Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
I am also very concerned about inflation. Stagflation is definately in our future.
Um, stagflation is in the here and now.

Stagflation is the media nick-name for Cost Inflation. Cost Inflation occurs when prices rise due to commodity shortages and/or a lower value currency, and both of those are happening.

I already posted a dissertation on the different types of inflation, their causes, and solutions for them, so I don't feel like doing it again.

Suffice to say that with Currency Inflation, Fiscal/Monetary Inflation and Wage Inflation, prices and wages rise together.

With Cost Inflation, prices rise but wages don't. The reason is that prices are increased to restore profit margins to their original levels, not increase profit margins. As a result, there are typically pay raise freezes, or pay raises barely match the cost of living (and are usually much less).

My question to you is why weren't you concerned about inflation during the Clinton Administration?

The facts are this:

1) from January 1992 to December 2000, the money supply increased from $3386.6 Billion to $4918.7 Billion, or 68%

2) from January 2001 to the present, the money supply increased from $4973.6 Billion to $7686.7 Billion, or 64%

The rate of money supply growth during the Bush Administration has been less than the Clinton Administration.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:18 PM.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top