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Old 07-18-2008, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,592,974 times
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We are all guessing about the price of oil at this point. I think the $80-100 range could be where it settles in for a while. OPEC has no self-interest in severely hurting our economy. They also have an incentive to see the price go low enough that demand for SUVs, etc. pick up again and interest in alternatives wanes until the next sustained spike.
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Old 07-18-2008, 06:30 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,901,138 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexianPatriot View Post
they really ought to ban stupid people from the business/finance/investing section. I can't wait to buy once these idiots think the bull market for oil/commodities is over and they start selling. I can't wait to short the financials once these idiots think there that the bear market is stocks is over. This is a suckers rally and oil is merely going through a correction. $120 is my buying price target. When Dow moves to 11,800-12,000 range, I'll take a short position in financials regardless of what the idiots are doing. The next leg down for the market will approach 10,000. From there, I see as trading sideways for many years.

If oil drops to $100, yall can call me on it and rub it in. I don't see it correcting much lower than $120.
The DJIA will NOT go anywhere NEAR 10,000!!! Mark my words and take that to the bank (if the bank is still open that is!)
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Old 07-18-2008, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,975,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
We are all guessing about the price of oil at this point. I think the $80-100 range could be where it settles in for a while. OPEC has no self-interest in severely hurting our economy. They also have an incentive to see the price go low enough that demand for SUVs, etc. pick up again and interest in alternatives wanes until the next sustained spike.
They'd be hurting themselves if they took $80-$100 for a barrell priced in monopoly money.
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Old 07-18-2008, 06:51 PM
 
485 posts, read 1,805,467 times
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Just a thought....

If Iran wants an atom bomb so bad, lets give them a few-by airmail.
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Old 07-18-2008, 07:31 PM
 
Location: The Woods
17,208 posts, read 22,966,707 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Don't be so sure. Theoretically, if we were to drill in ANWR and offshore, and at the same time there was to be a recession in China, we could end up in the $20 range fast. If just one of those happens, we would end up in the $40-$60 range fast.
Wishful thinking. "The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case."

"Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports by an equal amount."

EIA - Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge&

EIA - Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - Results

ANWR would be insigificant. 20 dollar oil? Nope, don't think so...
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Old 07-18-2008, 08:27 PM
 
48,509 posts, read 86,173,019 times
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Thye eastern gulf will be drilled first as that is the biggest field and much quicker production. That along with ANWR and petrobras is will be the best news in years. Just cutting intot eh 500 billion dollars flow from this country to foreign countries will help the economy.The there are the sand and tar oil that need to be wroked on. The pipeline expansion from canada tot eh gulf coast refineries that are being expnaded will alos help. Its not so much the price really but the excess capacity that might strop near future shortages. those are just guess as we see from waht has happened in the last few days. Twenty dollar oil will neer be seen but 80 dollar oil is possible.
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Old 07-18-2008, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,403,590 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arctichomesteader View Post
Wishful thinking. "The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case."

"Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports by an equal amount."

EIA - Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge&

EIA - Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - Results

ANWR would be insigificant. 20 dollar oil? Nope, don't think so...
Thats nothing but pure liberal propaganda. The extra oil's impact on the futures market would be felt immediately.
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Old 07-18-2008, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,592,974 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arctichomesteader View Post
"Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports by an equal amount."
Based on this argument then why drill for any of our own oil of OPEC could simply offset it. This argument really just highlights how important it is for us to develop our own resources - oil, coal, and natural gas - and develop alternatives so that we become less beholden to foreign nations.

I have to agree with bchris above that is not an accurate analysis. It is a static analysis that fails to account for the effect on the futures market.
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Old 07-18-2008, 10:38 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,403,590 times
Reputation: 4544
Quote:
Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
Based on this argument then why drill for any of our own oil of OPEC could simply offset it. This argument really just highlights how important it is for us to develop our own resources - oil, coal, and natural gas - and develop alternatives so that we become less beholden to foreign nations.

I have to agree with bchris above that is not an accurate analysis. It is a static analysis that fails to account for the effect on the futures market.
Its also amazing how the amount of time it would take to develop ANWR according to tree huggers gets longer and longer as the weeks go by.
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Old 07-18-2008, 11:08 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,592,974 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Its also amazing how the amount of time it would take to develop ANWR according to tree huggers gets longer and longer as the weeks go by.
It's also amazing - in a frustrating sort of way - how often the amount of time it would take to bring oil to the market is cited as a reason not to drill. I remember that same reason being cited 10 years ago.

I saw a guy from the Fox Business Channel this afternoon who said he had spoken to drillers about the length of time it would take to start bringing oil from offshore to market. He said the consensus is 1-6 years depending on conditions. Under optimal conditions some of the oil would be sold in a year. Of course, as we noted, the impact on the futures market would be immediate. If the Democrats in Congress were really serious about minimizing the impact of speculation they would rescind the ban.
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