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Old 07-18-2008, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,593,433 times
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So Bush rescinds the executive ban on drilling and oil prices plummet in the following days. Is there a correlation?
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Old 07-18-2008, 05:28 PM
 
Location: rural WA
55 posts, read 260,191 times
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I'm not falling for what Bush did, (Congress will never rescind it), why would the market fall for it?
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Old 07-18-2008, 05:49 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,404,873 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 509er View Post
I'm not falling for what Bush did, (Congress will never rescind it), why would the market fall for it?
Yeah, a sea turtle might be unhappy. We can't have that!
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Old 07-18-2008, 05:51 PM
 
24,839 posts, read 33,339,229 times
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Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
So Bush rescinds the executive ban on drilling and oil prices plummet in the following days. Is there a correlation?
Yes. The futures market is way down.
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Old 07-18-2008, 06:19 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,593,433 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 509er View Post
I'm not falling for what Bush did, (Congress will never rescind it), why would the market fall for it?
I heard that the Congressional ban has to be renewed by Congress in September or it expires. If this is true then they will either have to sneak it in a bill (a real possibility) or else face the wrath of many voters less than two months before the election. This would be particularly hard on the House since they are all up for reelection.

If the ban is set to expire then I predict you will see a massive effort - spurred by talk radio - to pressure Congress to let it expire. I think there will be a compromise to let it expire that could include passing some increased regulations on speculators (thus driving more of them overseas to speculate there). There could also be a compromise to open up some areas while continuing to restrict others.

Last edited by Niners fan; 07-18-2008 at 06:43 PM.. Reason: typo
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Old 07-18-2008, 06:26 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,007,152 times
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I don't think the lift on the ban did much. I think the supply reading this week, followed by a weakening/slowing global economy (China's GDP growth), and a 3% weakening in demand in the States has more to do with this weeks drop... and may precipitate more drops in the future. Things are slowing down people, the emerging countries can't prop up the world.... therefore oil prices at current levels aren't justified.... even with the weakening of the dollar.

-chuck22b
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Old 07-18-2008, 08:31 PM
 
48,509 posts, read 86,180,553 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 509er View Post
I'm not falling for what Bush did, (Congress will never rescind it), why would the market fall for it?
Sure they will because the polls show 67 % are for drilling and only 13% for not the others aren't sure. They are already under alot of heat and they are politicans. Many democrats are turning already. Pelosi and Reid are blocking it be brought up but they are weaker everyday.Many are predicting it maybe the #1 issue as november approaches and the heating oil goes up.
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Old 07-18-2008, 09:06 PM
 
Location: WA
5,472 posts, read 21,914,093 times
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Yes.

Spot prices of non-perishable commodities will always trend to match future prices. Any indication of increased future supply or reduction in demand will chill future prices and therefore pressure the spot price lower.

Several things are pushing prices down, primarily the reduction in demand because of the high prices and slowing economies, but to some extent the prospect of increased supplies.

The next level of support is $120 and if there is trading below that level there is a chance we may see a period around the $100 level.
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Old 07-18-2008, 10:41 PM
 
Location: Ohio
21,320 posts, read 15,092,991 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
So Bush rescinds the executive ban on drilling and oil prices plummet in the following days. Is there a correlation?
No, but there is a correlation with inventories of oil in the US.

Quote:
Oil inventories grew by 3 million barrels in the week ending July 11, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Analysts had been expecting a moderate draw. Gasoline inventories also rose by 2.4 million barrels where analysts forecast a slight draw, while a 3.2 million-barrel build in distillate stocks more than doubled the average prediction. Distillates include heating oil and diesel.
Based on that, you can correctly conclude that demand decreased, resulting in a temporary price drop.

As soon as inventories draw down, they'll be buying again and the price will go back up.

The price drop now is on settlement prices for August delivery. You can see that here:

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures Price Quote
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Old 07-19-2008, 05:45 AM
 
26,662 posts, read 40,649,439 times
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If you want all the people pumping gas giving their money to the Middle East, than you are against drilling, but remember the people who are getting the money right now are hating Americans and we all are supporting them by paying at the pump!

There are many countries who do much more about going green and are protective to keep the nature and the animlas protected and are drilling for oil at the same time.

I'm all for drilling and keeping the money in this country so more people have a job and the economy will go better. Pelosi was immediatley against drilling and so is the Dem. Congress who is behind the no drilling for years now! So blame who is to blame! And if you are against drilling, don't blame any one but your self for making the Middle East richer and look what their economy looks like....way better than over here!
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