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Old 07-22-2008, 04:04 AM
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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China's vehicle inventories hit 4-year high: report - Yahoo! News (broken link)

Headline: China's vehicle inventories hit 4-year high

The backlog came to 170,000 vehicles as of the end of June, the highest since a previous peak of 200,000 at the end of June 2004,

Analysts blamed the rising stockpile on slowing growth in the world's second-largest auto market, hit in part by the government's decision to end a week-long spring holiday and by natural disasters, particularly May's devastating earthquake in southwest China, which dampened consumer sentiment.

In the second half, analysts expected a nearly 20 percent hike in retail fuel prices unveiled late last month would also weigh on demand.

"The backlog will certainly rise further in the second half, as the situation is unlikely to be any better in the coming months," said Yi Junfeng, an industry analyst with Changjiang Securities.

I wonder if this is a indicator that china's growth is slowing a little?
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Old 07-22-2008, 04:51 AM
Location: western East Roman Empire
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Originally Posted by baystater View Post
I wonder if this is a indicator that china's growth is slowing a little?
The key words may be a little.

My understanding is that growth in China too, along with some other Asian countries, may also be constrained by high energy costs.

The difference is one of proportions: US growth (assuming the official numbers over the past 8-12 years have been "legitimate") may have slowed from, say, 4% to 1% (75% deceleration), while China's growth may slow (assuming the official numbers over the past few years have been "legitimate") from, say, 12% to 8% (a 33% deceleration).

For the time being, the difference in absolute GDP may offset the differences in deceleration, but on the current numbers, the long-term trend is clear.

However, if global growth slows and energy prices stabilize as a result, it may give the US time, assuming wise economic policy and maybe a few new discoveries and inventions, to restructure and maintain its competitiveness going forward.

Maybe not.
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Old 07-22-2008, 08:56 AM
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I know are sure closing plants, not driving cars, trying to clean up for the Olympics.
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Old 07-22-2008, 10:37 AM
Location: Chino, CA
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I don't really understand why everybody is so gun-hoe on China and the developing nations. Of course their growth rate is going to be faster than the U.S. and other "developed" nations. This is a natural occurring phenomenon as outlined by the Solow Model and Convergence.

What is meant by convergence with regards to the Solow model. What are the implications. Thanks C? - Yahoo! Answers

Because of their rapid growth, their inflation rate is also a lot higher in the high single digits to almost double digits. The rapid growth rates and capital infusions also have its' consequences. As a result, their air quality, urban planning, corruption, etc. is also higher/worse.

China is slowing:
DATAWATCH - China's GDP growth moderates amid export slowdown - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/17/afx5223785.html - broken link)

So, there really isn't any point comparing GDPs between China and the US since they are totally different beasts. It'd be better to compare the US with UK, Japan, etc.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/images/charts/192.gif (broken link)
National Statistics Online

Japan lowers yr to March 2009 real GDP growth forecast to 1.3 pct - UPDATE - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/22/afx5238264.html - broken link)

Yes, the world is slowing down. Both developed and developing nations.

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