U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 07-24-2008, 04:31 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,043 posts, read 11,823,689 times
Reputation: 1394

Advertisements

From November 2006 at a mortgage broker's conference. Peter spoke in front of 1,000 mortgage brokers and told them why they'd be out of a job.

I'm particularly proud from 7:30 to the end, where he describes how he and his participating clients shorted CMOs. Thank God I found him before 2006 as implementing that advice alone allowed me to optionally retire at the tender age of 35


YouTube - Nov 2006 Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech Part 4 of 8
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-25-2008, 05:51 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,478 posts, read 52,823,640 times
Reputation: 24677
Ain't private welfare wonderful?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-25-2008, 06:34 AM
 
Location: America
6,987 posts, read 15,766,746 times
Reputation: 2073
I love Schiff

Him Rubini, and Eric Janzen have been on the money through out this entire thing.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-25-2008, 08:44 AM
 
3,490 posts, read 7,521,016 times
Reputation: 3957
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
. Thank God I found him before 2006 as implementing that advice alone allowed me to optionally retire at the tender age of 35


YouTube - Nov 2006 Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech Part 4 of 8

At 35, how much do you think is a sufficient amount of money to retire on?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-26-2008, 07:55 AM
 
372 posts, read 786,996 times
Reputation: 126
I do like Peter Schiff, and think that he's been a voice of reason in recent years, but sometimes I think his forecasts are overly gloomy... but hey that sells books and EuroPacific products.

My major problem is that he states up until 2000, housing prices closely mirrored the CPI. Since then they've gone crazy far exceeding the CPI.

Later he'll state that since the 90's, the CPI has been useless because of the way that the gov't toys with the numbers, and that inflationary rates have been much higher than stated. If that's the case, than housing prices maybe haven't risen quite as drastically out of whack, and aren't likely to fall back to below pre-2000 levels, in my opinion.

To me the biggest question is how far will interest rates rise. If fixed interest rates were to raise from 6% to 10%, the purchasing power of a buyer would decrease by some 31.5%. Obviously if rates went beyond 10% the purchasing power would decrease further. It'll be a good time to have cash as investment properties may return to being profitable.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-26-2008, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,043 posts, read 11,823,689 times
Reputation: 1394
Quote:
Originally Posted by DasNootz View Post
I do like Peter Schiff, and think that he's been a voice of reason in recent years, but sometimes I think his forecasts are overly gloomy... but hey that sells books and EuroPacific products.

My major problem is that he states up until 2000, housing prices closely mirrored the CPI. Since then they've gone crazy far exceeding the CPI.

Later he'll state that since the 90's, the CPI has been useless because of the way that the gov't toys with the numbers, and that inflationary rates have been much higher than stated. If that's the case, than housing prices maybe haven't risen quite as drastically out of whack, and aren't likely to fall back to below pre-2000 levels, in my opinion.

To me the biggest question is how far will interest rates rise. If fixed interest rates were to raise from 6% to 10%, the purchasing power of a buyer would decrease by some 31.5%. Obviously if rates went beyond 10% the purchasing power would decrease further. It'll be a good time to have cash as investment properties may return to being profitable.
Interesting. Schiff could've sold off the crap securities or internet stocks when they were big and made even more money short term than he did by recommending commodities and gold about 5-10 years ago.

I believe his Crash Proof book sales are a tiny tiny fraction of his net worth, but I could be mistaken.

Also, he's a capitalist in the truest sense of the word. I don't blame him one bit on spreading the word on the faltering US economy in order to promote his company. If he were to come onto the scene in the past 2 years, I would be more worried, but the fact that he's practically hated in the polyannish CNBC crowd is way more than enough to dump my money into his brokerage.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-26-2008, 12:59 PM
 
372 posts, read 786,996 times
Reputation: 126
I don't think he's a snake-oil salesman by any means. I just disagree with how far our economy will fall. There is no question in my mind that the "correction" will be major, but I'm not ready to build a fall-out shelter yet either.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-26-2008, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,043 posts, read 11,823,689 times
Reputation: 1394
Quote:
Originally Posted by DasNootz View Post
I don't think he's a snake-oil salesman by any means. I just disagree with how far our economy will fall. There is no question in my mind that the "correction" will be major, but I'm not ready to build a fall-out shelter yet either.
He doesn't recommend a fall-out shelter either, nor does he recommend burying gold in the backyard as your investment strategy. Far from it.

He believes we'll actually do the right thing and the dollar will only lose about 50-80% of its value in the best case before finding support about 5 years from now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-26-2008, 01:15 PM
 
Location: America
6,987 posts, read 15,766,746 times
Reputation: 2073
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
He doesn't recommend a fall-out shelter either, nor does he recommend burying gold in the backyard as your investment strategy. Far from it.

He believes we'll actually do the right thing and the dollar will only lose about 50-80% of its value in the best case before finding support about 5 years from now.
The problem is, people do not have any or very little understanding of how economics works. So when people speak about what is going to happen they interpret that as end of the world. They do not realize what any of this really means.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-27-2008, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Georgia, on the Florida line, right above Tallahassee
10,474 posts, read 14,168,385 times
Reputation: 6374
Here's another blast from the past.....

http://i79.photobucket.com/albums/j154/opihi1/gaspriceseb1.jpg (broken link)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:55 PM.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top