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Old 08-01-2008, 10:05 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,400,752 times
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Up to over $128 today before easing. Analysts are now predicting oil prices are as low as they are going to go for now and will test new highs in the coming weeks. One guy on CNBC this morning said we should retake $135 early next week.
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Old 08-01-2008, 10:35 PM
 
Location: Ohio
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The EIA publishes weekly inventories of crude oil and gasoline. The inventories have been higher than average for the same time last year due to a decrease in demand.

Right now, no one has to buy oil, but as soon as demand increases, prices will rise again.

New production will not offset production declines in the 59 countries whose supplies are dwindling, so this type "plateau-spike-peak" action will continue indefinitely.
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Old 08-01-2008, 11:14 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,400,752 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
The EIA publishes weekly inventories of crude oil and gasoline. The inventories have been higher than average for the same time last year due to a decrease in demand.

Right now, no one has to buy oil, but as soon as demand increases, prices will rise again.

New production will not offset production declines in the 59 countries whose supplies are dwindling, so this type "plateau-spike-peak" action will continue indefinitely.
The word is that under $4 gas is causing demand in the US to rise again, though only slightly. This is causing investors to pour back into oil. I call $150 by Labor Day followed by a decline back to the $130 level. I am not sure if we can get to $170 because there is too much demand destruction even at the $150 level, but speculators are looking for that sweet spot where they can make the most money yet not destroy demand.
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Old 08-02-2008, 07:18 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,592,126 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Actually they were right on until the price started falling in mid-July. We were on-track to $170 by the end of July and $200 by the end of August.
So you are saying they were on-track to be right but ended up being wrong? That hardly helps their credibility.
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Old 08-02-2008, 08:00 PM
 
3,460 posts, read 5,071,229 times
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The report before last showed a surprise buildup of crude, which dropped the price. The last report showed a surprise drop, which raised the price.

That tells me that somebody juggled numbers one week to make money on the short side, and the next week they corrected the balance and made money on the long side.
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Old 08-05-2008, 09:24 AM
 
55,101 posts, read 43,936,662 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
So you are saying they were on-track to be right but ended up being wrong? That hardly helps their credibility.
This thread isn't about credibility, it is about guessing and throwing in enough terms to try to hide the fact that no real analysis has occurred.

So pick a number between 50 and 500.
Feel free to post daily here with a new number.

Using the rand() function in excel I came up with these "predictions". Of course demand destruction and the inverse supply warp coil could impact things. I heard from CNN money that the Saudi light sweet crude would mitigate the Chinese Olympic matrix and US driving patterns should cause the flux capacitor to return prices to lower levels by year end.

September 242
Year end 160
2010 377
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Old 08-05-2008, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,592,126 times
Reputation: 909
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
This thread isn't about credibility, it is about guessing and throwing in enough terms to try to hide the fact that no real analysis has occurred.

So pick a number between 50 and 500.
Feel free to post daily here with a new number.

Using the rand() function in excel I came up with these "predictions". Of course demand destruction and the inverse supply warp coil could impact things. I heard from CNN money that the Saudi light sweet crude would mitigate the Chinese Olympic matrix and US driving patterns should cause the flux capacitor to return prices to lower levels by year end.

September 242
Year end 160
2010 377
You'll be right until you are wrong!!
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Old 08-05-2008, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,478 posts, read 52,813,396 times
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I think international demand is strong enough to prevent a forced collapse in prices that destroyed the alternative energy, and many oil companies, in the '80's. I predict (guess) that oil will continue to trade in the $130 to $160 range for the next year and will adjust for the decline in the American dollar from then on. More oil will be traded in Euros or by direct barter between producer and consumer.
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:54 PM
 
1,956 posts, read 4,863,247 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregW View Post
I think international demand is strong enough to prevent a forced collapse in prices that destroyed the alternative energy, and many oil companies, in the '80's. I predict (guess) that oil will continue to trade in the $130 to $160 range for the next year and will adjust for the decline in the American dollar from then on. More oil will be traded in Euros or by direct barter between producer and consumer.
I agree that there won't be a collapse in prices, but even a dip and then stabilization at $75-90 per barrel would still make alternatives quite competitive over the long-run. Without massive supplies of new money (i.e. inflationary monetary policy), the market simply cannot handle today's oil prices.
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Old 08-05-2008, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Ohio
21,284 posts, read 15,082,050 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoneOne View Post
I agree that there won't be a collapse in prices, but even a dip and then stabilization at $75-90 per barrel would still make alternatives quite competitive over the long-run.
That's exactly what you'll see in about 18 months once E85 is in full swing.

The government is currently offering grants of up to $30,000 to install new E85 pumps.

E85 is 85% Ethanol and 15% gasoline, which is exactly opposite the current 85% gasoline and 15% ethanol.
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