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Old 07-24-2008, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Oil went up over $125 today, and the price is starting to rise further in Asian trading. Anybody think we will be testing $150 again by Labor Day, or is it down to $100 from here?

With the falling stock and housing markets, renewed violence in Nigeria and recent comments from Kuwait about the US and European slowdown in demand being surpassed by surging demand from China and India, I have a hard time believing crude will continue its downward trend unless we in the US make a commitment towards energy independence, which isn't going to happen.
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Old 07-24-2008, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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I doubt we can pass 150, but the rapidly devaluing dollar will cause oil prices to rise in the near future. Demand is down, but inflation is still ravaging higher.
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Old 07-24-2008, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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The next big thing to shoot up in price is apparel. Say goodbye to cheap socks and underwear.
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Old 07-24-2008, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
I doubt we can pass 150, but the rapidly devaluing dollar will cause oil prices to rise in the near future. Demand is down, but inflation is still ravaging higher.
This housing bill is going to kill any hope we may have had of a dollar rebound. Its like our government from the Fed to Congress to our presidential candidates could care less about the dollar or energy prices. All of their energy is focused on the housing market, which in my opinion is but a small part of the problem with the overall economy. I agree we might not be able to cross $150, but I think near term we have a better chance of testing $150 than $100.
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Old 07-24-2008, 09:32 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
This housing bill is going to kill any hope we may have had of a dollar rebound. Its like our government from the Fed to Congress to our presidential candidates could care less about the dollar or energy prices. All of their energy is focused on the housing market, which in my opinion is but a small part of the problem with the overall economy. I agree we might not be able to cross $150, but I think near term we have a better chance of testing $150 than $100.
IMO, supporting the housing bailout helps to garner the peoples' support (esp. homeowners) while simultaneously propping up commodity prices, since most of the freshly minted money is going to get funneled into the safest investment. This helps to enrich the boyz on Wall street as well as keeping some foreign central bankers happy.

Plus, they keep giving us a end of the world scenario if we don't bail out Fannie/Freddie, so it creates an implied "we must do it" feeling.
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Old 07-24-2008, 09:56 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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I have always said that the path to economic stability involves crushing the real estate bubble. It is sad that the dollar is being killed to keep inflated real estate values up. Hopefully the whole house of cards collapses and interest rates rise anyway.
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Old 07-24-2008, 10:04 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
I have always said that the path to economic stability involves crushing the real estate bubble. It is sad that the dollar is being killed to keep inflated real estate values up. Hopefully the whole house of cards collapses and interest rates rise anyway.
Didn't Japan try this and it sent them into a 10 year depression?
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Old 07-24-2008, 10:51 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
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Already over $126 and climbing. I think the bullish sentiment on this market is returning. We might break $130 tomorrow or on Monday.
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Old 07-24-2008, 11:25 PM
 
Location: Ohio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
This housing bill is going to kill any hope we may have had of a dollar rebound.
Right. Not passing the bill will cause the Russians to dump 100% of their Euro and gold reserves, buy up US$ and start trading all commodities in US$ instead of Rubles and Euros.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Its like our government from the Fed to Congress to our presidential candidates could care less about the dollar or energy prices.
The Federal Reserve can do absolutely nothing.

Congress did do something, it authorized Bush to invade Iraq.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
All of their energy is focused on the housing market, which in my opinion is but a small part of the problem with the overall economy.
And has no bearing whatsoever on the demand for US$.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
I agree we might not be able to cross $150, but I think near term we have a better chance of testing $150 than $100.
Just wait until Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Angola, Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela start selling oil in Euros.
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Old 07-25-2008, 01:19 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
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Quote:
, but the rapidly devaluing dollar will cause oil prices to rise in the near future.
The dollar as been pretty stable against other currencies since January-March depending on the currency. The situation in the UK is worse than the US, although hard to believe they have even higher household debt! In fact its higher than any development nation has ever seen. Europe is also seeing problems, in some sense the US is better off as we were able to drop rates before other things got became problematic. The European central bank is pretty much screwed. Anyhow the "dollar is going to fall" folks seem to have a really odd idea of what is going on in Europe, the crap is hitting the fan over there too.

Quote:
he next big thing to shoot up in price is apparel. Say goodbye to cheap socks and underwear.
Do you use a magic eight ball for these predictions? Apparel is down for the year.
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