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I really hope you're right! I tend to think that technology and innovation won't save us. It'll be a day late, dollar short. Getting off our dependence on oil should have been a priority after the 1973 oil crisis. 38 years later, and what kind of progress has really been made? I see a lot of rhetoric, and very little action considering how much time has passed and the strides that could have been made! I know I'm in the "doom and gloom" crowd, but I really think that without oil, our civilization can only support a much smaller population.
(And just to keep this thread on topic, let me add that I hope gasoline prices stay low over the weekend, because I'm traveling up the coast of California! )
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T
And while the discussion tends to go a little (ok, a LOT) deeper at The Oil Drum, as well, I think they totally missed that the long run effect of short oil or even marginally high priced oil will be substitution -- towards means and methods that do not involve oil.
And yeah, I know that Full-Metal-Jacket-Doomer-Dogma holds there IS NO substitute to oil as it is generally used -- that is of course, just dogma. Not part of the Peak Oil model at all.
But the longer view is that some 100 years from now (or much sooner if we choose) folks will look back at The Age of Oil as we do now the Age of Horses. Will still be some or even plenty around, but not generally used or even needed.
I really hope you're right! I tend to think that technology and innovation won't save us. It'll be a day late, dollar short. Getting off our dependence on oil should have been a priority after the 1973 oil crisis. 38 years later, and what kind of progress has really been made? I see a lot of rhetoric, and very little action considering how much time has passed and the strides that could have been made! I know I'm in the "doom and gloom" crowd, but I really think that without oil, our civilization can only support a much smaller population.
Your sentiments are similar to those expressed by James Howard Kunstler in his book, The Long Emergency ( recommended reading! ). He does a good job of critically highlighting the problem(s) we face, from his limited perspective. Throughout the book, I had a strong feeling that he's missing something. His essentially pessimistic nature keeps him stuck in a box that limits his thinking. It's a good book as far as it goes, well worth reading, but the author is unable to think beyond the box in which he lives. From reading some of the posts in this thread and many others like it, it is obvious that many people have fallen into the same hopeless, pessimistic box that Kunstler lives in. The pessisism in the air is so pervasive that I find myself trapped in the same box from time to time, though I've not abandoned hope. Though our situation seems really dire at times, there's something we're not able to see....just yet. I have a recurring sense that we are on the cusp of a major breakthrough, though I have no idea what it might be.
Last edited by CosmicWizard; 08-28-2008 at 09:38 AM..
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