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Old 08-21-2008, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,671,342 times
Reputation: 592

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Quote:
Oh yeah, it can happen here.
Yeah it can happen here, and aliens can all turn us into slaves too. Of course the point is that the data is showing that its not happening here, most indicators are getting more deflationary each month.

Quote:
Schiff points out quite readily that foreign governments will simply stop sending food our way when we default on our debt obligations, decreasing the amount of available consumer goods to purchase with inflated dollars.
I didn't know foreign governments were sending food to us in the first place. Do you mean foreign farmers? Well they will send food to us so long as they can do something with the dollar, oh wait but its going to be worthless right? But that is begging the question. Schiff is a fraud just like his father, perhaps they can lock him up with mozilo.
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Old 08-22-2008, 07:52 AM
 
523 posts, read 1,331,334 times
Reputation: 134
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
Even the M3 is showing a major contraction in the money supply. So, lets see all indicators of the money supply are contracting, credit is contracting...yet there is going to be high inflation. Something doesn't add up.

Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead - Telegraph

Inflation can't get out of control without "wage inflation", wages are decreasing. Welcome to deflation....1930's style.
Current inflation rate: 5.6%

Annual Inflation Chart

Predicted inflation rate in Feb 2009: 6.5%

Moore Inflation Predictor Chart

Of course, Humanoid will tell you that price increases may not be a direct result of inflation. However, what Humanoid fails to see, is that the average American measures inflation based upon the purchasing power of their wages. Sure, this is not the "technical" definition of inflation, but most Americans don't care about that. Most Americans care about the fact that their wages are not rising but energy, food, and healthcare costs are skyrocketing.
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Old 08-22-2008, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Texas
4,938 posts, read 7,176,255 times
Reputation: 5517
Quote:
Originally Posted by mojo_1979 View Post
Current inflation rate: 5.6%

Annual Inflation Chart

Predicted inflation rate in Feb 2009: 6.5%

Moore Inflation Predictor Chart

Of course, Humanoid will tell you that price increases may not be a direct result of inflation. However, what Humanoid fails to see, is that the average American measures inflation based upon the purchasing power of their wages. Sure, this is not the "technical" definition of inflation, but most Americans don't care about that. Most Americans care about the fact that their wages are not rising but energy, food, and healthcare costs are skyrocketing.
It's called stagflation. It happend in the 70's and this time it will be much worse. You will have deflation in big ticket items (homes, cars, fancy television sets ect.) and inflation in the must have areas of energy, food, basic materials, ect. We are the biggest debtor nation on earth and the only way to pay it off is to debase the currency.
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Old 08-22-2008, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,671,342 times
Reputation: 592
Quote:
hat Humanoid fails to see, is that the average American measures inflation based upon the purchasing power of their wages. Sure, this is not the "technical" definition of inflation, but most Americans don't care about that.
I don't care what the average American measures inflation by, I care about macroeconomics. Furthermore, the effect of monetary policy on inflation always works with a lag. There are now many indicators that are saying "inflation will moderate" right now, but even if these indicators are correct you won't see the effects for months.

Quote:
It's called stagflation.
Stagflation is a pretty meaningless term, you either have inflation or deflation both can't happen at the same time by definition. The fact of the matter is that the FED destroyed inflation when it finally (under Paul Volcker) reduced the money supply. Currently the money supply is already declining, not so much by the action of the FED but by what is happening in the markets. The FED couldn't inflate its way out of this even if it wanted to, at best they will stop a manager contraction in the money supply.

The inflation in the 70's was clearly embedded the inflation we are still now has yet to embedded itself. As can be seen by the difference between core vs CPI. In the 70's core and CPI roughly moved together.
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Old 08-22-2008, 11:40 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 77,112,874 times
Reputation: 27655
I care that costs are going up pretty quick while my salary isn't..not for 2 years now.
Weekly food shopping used to cost me $75-$85. Today it was $125 and I've cut back and changed to store brands. Just today I see a gallon of milk went from $3.99 to $4.59. The creep is killing the consumer..especially when wages are stagnant.

Core CPI means nothing to me..I have to pay for those items that the government doesn't include as does every other American.
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Old 08-23-2008, 01:57 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,671,342 times
Reputation: 592
Quote:
Weekly food shopping used to cost me $75-$85. Today it was $125 and I've cut back and changed to store brands.
Dude, c'mon food has not gone up 66%. Even the food items that have gone up the most haven't gone up that much. Maybe you are comparing today to your food budget from 1995? Also, don't like the prices of Milk? Stop drinking it. But Ralphs here in California sells two gallons for $5.79.


Core inflation isn't suppose to measure temporary increases or declines in prices, that is what the CPI does. The core inflation numbers tell you whether the "inflation" is becoming embedded or not. That is what matters from a macroeconomic perspective, trying to fiz price increases caused by say grain storage caused by weather problems with monetary policy would be silly.
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Old 08-23-2008, 10:07 AM
 
Location: Texas
4,938 posts, read 7,176,255 times
Reputation: 5517
even the government numbers are starting to tell the real story. wasn't the PPI number up to 1.2% when they reported earlier this week?
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