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Old 09-05-2008, 10:00 AM
 
26,880 posts, read 42,312,682 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei View Post
I just got back from Vegas last labor day weekend, and I saw lots of people spending their money on entertainment, gambling, food and stuff... I mean lotttttsssssssssss of people. Almost all casinos are crowded and full with people gambling. The tables were full, and these are the ones with $15 min bets.
Today on the news I saw there were 30,000 more jobs shed in the private sector, and stock punged almost 350 points.

I wonder, are we really in a recession?
My checkbook says we are, and I was only in vegas b/c I got a free hotel for 3 nights, and we didn't spend anything at casino.

Who are these people that spent lots of money in vegas..?
Maybe people max. out their credit cards or equity lines before filing for bancruptcy......

IMO there isn't a recession....just a lot of jobs lost for who was working as a realtor, mortgage broker, etc...
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Old 09-05-2008, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,105,937 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
U.S. first quarter GDP was 1.3% growth link
The preliminary data showed 0.6% which means they made an error of over 100%.

That is unprecedented. Go back and look at preliminary data from the 80s and 90s. The actual GDP ended up being 10% to 20% above the preliminary estimates, not 150%.
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Old 09-05-2008, 10:44 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 77,200,056 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
The preliminary data showed 0.6% which means they made an error of over 100%.

That is unprecedented. Go back and look at preliminary data from the 80s and 90s. The actual GDP ended up being 10% to 20% above the preliminary estimates, not 150%.
Lately all the numbers that I see in the MSM I read with a grain of salt and then go dig up the gov't report to really look at the numbers.

IMHO..the MSM gets fluffed numbers. The real hoot though is the adjusted numbers from the previous month's reports and so far they paint a worse picture then what we're being told.
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Old 09-05-2008, 11:13 AM
 
146 posts, read 539,500 times
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I don't see any obvious signs that something's wrong with the economy either. I honestly don't notice any fundamental difference between today and, say, three years ago.

However, the human eye is not a very precise instrument. Yes, stores and restaraunts seem to be about as full as ever, but for a drop in customers to become obvious, I'd say that it has to be at least a third for one to say: Gee, it's pretty empty here today!

A lot of stores have sales down by 10-20% as compared to the last year and that's just not something you can see. The number of customers is certainly not down by that much, it's just that people buy less. Reports report how much people spend, not how many come to the store. There's just no way in the world you can notice that people buy a tenth or a fifth less than they used to.

I think that if an average Joe can actually notice slower business, our economy is in a pretty bad shape. Yeah, if most people around the country say how they went to JCPenney and it was surprisingly empty, I'd be worried not about recession but about depression.

There is definitely some trouble and I personally believe it will worsen. I just don't think it's going to be a deep economic crisis like the Great Depression, Argentinian economic collapse 5-6 years ago or Russia's transition to capitalism. Which means that for someone with a job things will look more or less normal throughout this period.
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Old 09-05-2008, 11:51 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 77,200,056 times
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Excellent post Sergeyn, reps to you for that.
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Old 09-05-2008, 01:29 PM
 
20,194 posts, read 21,686,362 times
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Is it me or are Vegas rooms getting smaller? I understand the more gamblers staying at your casino the more money you make but.... smaller rooms? I remember going to vegas and staying in a "standard" room which was like any other hotel/motel room... I went again several years later and got a "deluxe" room and it was SMALLER and CRAPPY... I guess they were trying to force you out of the room and gamble but come on... If you think people are gambling because they got "free" rooms, I would definitely reject that idea... most of the gamblers there are addicts, semi-pros, and pros... I think there is still probably a lot of tourist gambling as well... overall, yes, they are hurting for money just like everybody else... the difference? When they go home they turn on the TV and shout "Go Obama!" and "Give me some free money!"... after all, they need your money to get them out the very spot they put themselves into...
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Old 09-05-2008, 01:40 PM
 
28,900 posts, read 49,446,944 times
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I think that there is an enormous difference between a recession and uncertainty. What's more, a lot of our economic growth is coming in areas that are not obvious to casual observers, such as the export boom.

In fact, given how exports have really kept this country out of a recession, you really have to wonder about Obama's sanity when it comes to questioning free trade agreements with other countries. Can you say Hawley Smoot Tariff Act?
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Old 09-05-2008, 03:02 PM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,100,842 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
The preliminary data showed 0.6% which means they made an error of over 100%.

That is unprecedented. Go back and look at preliminary data from the 80s and 90s. The actual GDP ended up being 10% to 20% above the preliminary estimates, not 150%.
Didn't realize that. Thank you for the heads up sir. will look into it.
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Old 09-05-2008, 03:35 PM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,100,842 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sergeyn View Post
I don't see any obvious signs that something's wrong with the economy either. I honestly don't notice any fundamental difference between today and, say, three years ago.

However, the human eye is not a very precise instrument. Yes, stores and restaraunts seem to be about as full as ever, but for a drop in customers to become obvious, I'd say that it has to be at least a third for one to say: Gee, it's pretty empty here today!

A lot of stores have sales down by 10-20% as compared to the last year and that's just not something you can see. The number of customers is certainly not down by that much, it's just that people buy less. Reports report how much people spend, not how many come to the store. There's just no way in the world you can notice that people buy a tenth or a fifth less than they used to.

I think that if an average Joe can actually notice slower business, our economy is in a pretty bad shape. Yeah, if most people around the country say how they went to JCPenney and it was surprisingly empty, I'd be worried not about recession but about depression.

There is definitely some trouble and I personally believe it will worsen. I just don't think it's going to be a deep economic crisis like the Great Depression, Argentinian economic collapse 5-6 years ago or Russia's transition to capitalism. Which means that for someone with a job things will look more or less normal throughout this period.
Unless inflation abates I doubt that. With Oil price coming down we may see inflation ease up. I sure as hell hope so. As for whats ahead, I think we may see a bunch of little bubbles go up in flames in a attempt to keep the economy sputtering along until they can transtion the FIRE economy. This sure as heck will be a very interesting time.

Also, people watching the numbers of people in stores to see if the economy is good or bad are really silly and uninformed individuals. I mean think about the domino affect. If people buy on credit then, them purchasing goods really has little to do with the over all health of the economy. Think of this, so a LCD gets put on the old credit card, yet Joe Six Pack defaults on that debt six months later. Not good, not good at all.

I agree with how you eluded to the fact things are not always so clear. Reading the economy and how things will play out is like playing a round of dominos. You not only have to calculate what everyone is holding, you also have to figure out how each domino that is played will affect your hand from that point on to the final stages of the game. So to this is how reading the economy works.

Joe Shmoe living check to check

Joe Shmoe wants tv

Is Joe Shmoe responsible?

Will he be responsible and live with in his means?

Will he go put that tv on a credt card?

If he doesnt buy, then how does that hurt/help retail sales. How does him not buying that LCD affect little Johnny who has a part time job at TVs R Us?.

Then you have to figure, how does that affect Little Johnny's spending. and on and on and on it goes. Now multiply that by the millions of people who live in this country. We didn't even get into other avenues like restuarants, resturant workers, gas stations, Banks who are now seeing defaults (credit card defaults have sky rocketed), Phone Carriers who are now seeing higher level of delinquincies among their customers.

Also, people have to remember unemployment doesn't peak during the recession, someimes there is a year or so dely in those jobless upticks. Again, a lot of this stuff isn't "obvious". Takes a lot of research on ones part to realy understand this big picture. People thinking this is business as usual are delusional. We are seeing the end of a decade long debt driven economic run. We are seeing the hand off of political and economic power int he world from the west to the east. I by no means try to paint a picture of a America turning into 3rd world. I do paint a picture of a America that no longer lives in some fantasy, self indulgent wonderland. We will now start to live as Europe and other developed countries have lived. End of world? No, but end of business as usual, thats for damn sure.
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Old 09-05-2008, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,105,937 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bentlebee View Post
Maybe people max. out their credit cards or equity lines before filing for bancruptcy......
Not permitted.

Under the old bankruptcy laws, you could not include credit cards if they had been used in the previous 180 days.

Under the new laws, I believe all debts incurred in the prior 12 months are excluded.
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