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Old 09-05-2008, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,064,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Lately all the numbers that I see in the MSM I read with a grain of salt and then go dig up the gov't report to really look at the numbers.

IMHO..the MSM gets fluffed numbers. The real hoot though is the adjusted numbers from the previous month's reports and so far they paint a worse picture then what we're being told.
While the numbers are fluffed, the preliminary data is still fairly accurate and proves that the US is not in a recession.

However, it does not prove the economy is doing well. That is something the GDP cannot possibly measure.

The preliminary data indicates 1st Quarter "growth" of 0.6% and 2nd Quarter "growth" of 0.9% but that is not proof of a viable economy. $200 Billion was injected into the economy via the rebate which most people spend during the 2nd Quarter, and the price of gasoline and foods rose considerably, so people were spending more, but getting the same or less.

It appears the economy is really flailing away uselessly and it won't change dramatically any time soon.
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Old 09-05-2008, 04:37 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,668,417 times
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The whole "My local best buy is empty/full" arguments are pretty useless. Not every store is going to do bad even during a depression. At least around there the well established malls, shopping areas etc are doing well in terms of no store closures, being filled with people etc. But there are also plenty of newer developments that are doing crappy.

Anyhow, there is a huge selection bias with these sorts of antidotes. In fact, its more than likely the stores, shopping centers you are going to are the popular ones in the first place.
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Old 09-05-2008, 04:41 PM
 
3,853 posts, read 12,074,682 times
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Where I work which is a theme park. I'd say attendance is down at least 25%. At least. Two year ago the ride I would operate always had an hour wait, now maximum 15 minute wait.
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Old 09-05-2008, 10:49 PM
 
523 posts, read 1,330,728 times
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I went into 7-11 the other day, and I had at least 4 people in line in front of me! One guy was even buying premium beer! If this isn't an obvious sign that the economy is booming then I don't know what is. Let the good times roll baby!
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Old 09-06-2008, 03:36 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,078,049 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
While the numbers are fluffed, the preliminary data is still fairly accurate and proves that the US is not in a recession.

However, it does not prove the economy is doing well. That is something the GDP cannot possibly measure.

The preliminary data indicates 1st Quarter "growth" of 0.6% and 2nd Quarter "growth" of 0.9% but that is not proof of a viable economy. $200 Billion was injected into the economy via the rebate which most people spend during the 2nd Quarter, and the price of gasoline and foods rose considerably, so people were spending more, but getting the same or less.

It appears the economy is really flailing away uselessly and it won't change dramatically any time soon.
If we use the National Bureau of Economic Research's definition, i think we can safely say we are in one. If we use CNN and the white house's definition (the negative growth argument) then we are not.

Quote:
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
link
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Old 09-06-2008, 10:55 PM
 
Location: Rhode Island (Splash!)
1,150 posts, read 2,475,957 times
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Here in RI, things look about the same as ever. We're still on the front-end of this downcycle. Just wait until the stock market finally gets its long overdue thrashing and the fiscal problems at the local, state and Federal levels go from crappy to really bad.

I have noticed that without a doubt, there are less cars driving the roads. Not much less, but quite significantly less.

Just wanted to share that....
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Old 09-06-2008, 11:09 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,826,948 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POhdNcrzy View Post
Here in RI, things look about the same as ever. We're still on the front-end of this downcycle. Just wait until the stock market finally gets its long overdue thrashing and the fiscal problems at the local, state and Federal levels go from crappy to really bad.
I agree. I see the Dow heading to 9,000 by the end of the year and unemployment spiking further to the 8-10% range. Recovery will depend partly on oil prices, as below $100 will help consumers out and we might see the beginnings of a retail recovery. I don't expect oil to go any lower than $90. The big thing to watch is the housing market, since that is the root cause of this recession anyways.
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Old 09-07-2008, 12:45 AM
Rei Rei started this thread
 
Location: Los Angeles
494 posts, read 1,675,606 times
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Quote:
I agree. I see the Dow heading to 9,000 by the end of the year and unemployment spiking further to the 8-10% range.
That's a rather very pessimistic view, don't you think?
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Old 09-07-2008, 04:05 AM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,064,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
If we use the National Bureau of Economic Research's definition
They're politically biased and their definitions self-serving. For example they consider the Great Depression to be one-long recession, even though there was considerable economic growth over periods of 6 to 7 quarters on several occasions between 1928 and 1942. They apply a different standard to the Carter mini-depression. Because there was one quarter of slight economic growth, they consider it to be two recessions, one under Carter and one under Reagan. They also dance around play name games with the recession during the Kennedy Administration.

The economy is currently experiencing slow economic growth, but that is not a recession.

When the economy contracts, the GDP will shrink below its existing level, and then there will be a recession (followed by a depression starting in a few years here).
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Old 09-07-2008, 04:23 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,078,049 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
They're politically biased and their definitions self-serving. For example they consider the Great Depression to be one-long recession, even though there was considerable economic growth over periods of 6 to 7 quarters on several occasions between 1928 and 1942. They apply a different standard to the Carter mini-depression. Because there was one quarter of slight economic growth, they consider it to be two recessions, one under Carter and one under Reagan. They also dance around play name games with the recession during the Kennedy Administration.

The economy is currently experiencing slow economic growth, but that is not a recession.

When the economy contracts, the GDP will shrink below its existing level, and then there will be a recession (followed by a depression starting in a few years here).
I think you are studying economics in school now right? I have a degree in the field as well. Your definition of a recession is not widely held. The definitions defer but for the most part it is not negative GDP, it is a contraction in a number of things as mentioned by the NBER and again many economist agree on this. Read Nourel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Eric Jenzen among many other really good economist (all of which have been spot on about whats happening) and they all agree on the definition of a recession and all agree we are in one now. The above mentioned people are far from politicos who have a agenda. In fact Nourel Roubini has been mocked and called Dr. Doom by many of his peers (even though he has been spot on). I agree with you though, you have to be careful where you get info from. People do have agenda but this defintion isn't one of them. The negative GDP growth things is actually something the white house has tried to push and rightfully so, seeing as how this is a election year. don't want the sheople to know we are facing the worst economic crisis we have seen since the gret depression. That would be a end to republican chances for the next presidency.

I also agree with you, things are going to get far worse than many people imagine. Well, let me qualify that by saying UNLESS they (the govt) can pull a rabbit out of the hat. Which is possible, because people thought after the tech bubble the F.I.R.E. economy was toast. Little did they know that the people at the top would use the real estate bubble to prop things up. So maybe they have another trick up their sleeves.

I suspect double digit unemployment by next year. As I have said in many post, this whole thing so far isnt even the first inning in this decade long ball game. This was just the warm up lap. Alt A loans start resetting this month and will continue until 2012. The only relief is the gas prices, though I suspect those will not remain low for ever. IF we hit peak oil like many claim then even with lower demand, that too will out strip supply and prices will climb. We are in for a serious problem.

Also for the depression and those periods of growth you mentioned. What spurred this growth? Was it govt intervention or was it natural market forces? Just like we had 3% growth and the strengthening of the dollar now, so what. the growth was driven by govt intervention (stimulus checks). The gain in the doller by central banks propping up the dollar for obvious reasons. Those are not signs of a healthy economy, those are attempts by outside forces to resuscitate a dying economy. We can't just take numbers and take them to mean x, y and z stictly on face value. We have to look at the driving factors behind those numbers.
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