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Old 10-09-2008, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Parker, CO
1,135 posts, read 2,900,208 times
Reputation: 1946

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Quote:
Originally Posted by runningncircles1 View Post
But, these doomers are just as stupid. They say they know what will happen, just as the optimists do. WE DON'T KNOW, but we can use certain indicators and common sense to steer us through. If it sounds too good to be true, as in the real estate boom, then it probably is. Something will go wrong. If something sounds ridiculous, and the person spouting it is condescending, again, probably not going to happen (as in the doomers predicting Y2K, alien attacks, the end of the world, Maya Calendar, and now the "Second GREAT Depression" that will have martial law, internment camps, starvation, and China kicking people out of their homes... that's probably not going to happen).

A logical person would look at the current situation and think like this:

"we're probably going to have negative growth because of the current credit market's condition. Credit will be harder to get, so businesses won't start up as easily or expand as easily. This will impact employment most likely, decreasing it. Hopefully, the government increases unemployment benefits so that it won't be too hard. Job performance evals are coming up... I better work harder this quarter! Did I move my stocks into bonds? That darn stock market looks like it will continue to go down for a while. I'll move to safer investments until it's safe to buy again. Banks DID close during the Great Depression, but were there other factors in play besides stocks and bank closures? Oh yeah, the S&L crisis had many bank closures and was pretty damn bad; they froze credit then, too. There was a baaad recession, but things picked back up. Now, what made the Great Depression different where people were starving and food prices increased but farmers had to leave their farms? Oh yes, the government didn't intervene until it was too late, there was a great dust bowl in the midwest, causing food shortages, and the crops then were not as protected w/ pesticides, genetic modifications, etc.., bad farming techniques. This caused an INCREASE in food prices (less supply for the same demand), but the government intervened with bad regulation that depressed prices, causing farmers to foreclose and leave farms, look for OTHER jobs, adding to the non-farm unemployment rate, and at that time, the country was 50% rural/aggrarian."
And on and on. Using a little logic, you can see that things aren't much of a surprise.

Hell, had our politicians used a little logic when deciding to regulate GSEs, or whether or not to lift Glass-Steagall Act provisions in the 90s. Or had people realized that home prices could not fundamentally increase infinitely as depicted, because they had become so unhinged from the CPI. Or had the Fed decided to raise the rate as the economy got back on its feet (it just kept them artificially low during economic growth, which is a no-no, even in Keynesian economics). We would not be in this mess if we used just a bit of logic instead of pure optimism or pure gloom.
This is one of the best posts I have read on here in months. I think you brought up a good point: pure optimism and pure gloom, are typically not logical.

I do sincerely beleive that the next few years are going to be tremendously difficult for our nation. We have so many economic woes that we are trying to deal with simultaneously. I beleive that we are about to enter a deep recession. I do not beleive however, that the world is about to end, or that we are all going to starve, or be sent off to FEMA camps, or whatever the conspiracy theory of the day may be. I feel sorry for the people who obsess over things that likely will never happen. Life's way too short.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:38 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 12,851,010 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runningncircles1 View Post
Yes, it would. It's a topic of research of many large energy companies. I work at a university, and in the Industrial Eng, Electrical/Computer Eng (my dept), and Chem Eng departments, these topics are heavily researched as it becomes less costly compared to extracting "clean oil" from ground reserves. (Note: before the oil price contraction recently)

A good friend of mine works in the Industrial Eng dept researching representing Southern Company, and they wanted his team to research the sand oil in Canada. They concluded that with the average densities, dimensions of the fields, current refining technologies and the current oil consumption patterns in the world and those to be expected, the volume of oil would last WORLD CONSUMPTION for approximately 1 century (the exact number was something like 109 years or so). Now, their task is to find a better way of converting the sand oil into "clean" oil more affordably. However, my point wasn't the affordability. It was the fact that it can be done if needed(which if needed, we DEFINITELY would), and that the peak oil crap is BS.
Whether or not peak oil is a fact, is irrelevant to the OP .... but I'll play along a bit.

So someone in Industrial Engineering at your school has determined that the Canadian oil sands are to be our savior. Is that a consensus of geologists and oil engineers around the world? It's certainly not what I've heard, but perhaps your engineer is infallible. However I'd feel more comfortable accepting that our troubles are past us, if you could cite a few other authoritative sources. You're asserting something that as far as I know goes against common knowledge, so the burden of proof is on you.

Quote:
.....you just said that the linked URL had "reputable sources" such as WSJ. So, is the main stream media reliable or not? You can't have your cake and eat it, too. And, if you're not as against the MSM and do think of them as reputable, why? Sure, they have truth to them, but many of the stories you read/see are heightened to a point of grabbing your attention, increasing ratings, and getting them more advertisement dollars. And, notice, this site only grabs sources to back up any arguments it makes, not diversifying their sources.
Notice that I didn't claim the site is unbiased, I clearly labelled it as a doomer news source.

I have no other method than reading various media sources to cover a lot of ground, things have to be summarized without technical language from all those different fields for me to be able to discern general trends. I also read news from many other non-doomer sites in order to balance things out.

Your belief seems to be the sort of "black and white" thinking that just doesn't work in a complex world. To say that all the media is either right or wrong, we can't have our cake and eat it too, is simply nonsense. Some sources are better than others, none are perfect.

Quote:
And, the reason I bring up their links: it IS relevant. Saying it's not is like saying the fact that CNN and Fox News have advertisements for investment banks, brokerages, financial firms, etc. have nothing to do with what they broadcast and therefore their audience. Or the fact that Nickelodeon shows kids sweetened cereal commercials during cartoons. Or MTV shows Neutrogena and prepaid cellphone commercials. Or Primetime shows consumer goods, "American Dream" commercials, or other commercials attractive to the middle class family. Those ads and shows work together towards a target audience; the "hook" is the TV show, or in this case, website of doom content, and once the audience is hooked, they can look at all the pretty merchandise being shown to them and BUY BUY BUY. How does no one ever see the difference in this?
The founders of this site had beliefs that they came by honestly as far as I know, and then attracted sponsors so they could spread the word without them spending a lot of their own money. The advertisers didn't originate the website.

Quote:
In the case of doomers, it seems there is a psychological need to "be in the know" and to feel special. I see it with any conspiracy theorist, doomer, or the like I've met. And, many people who can read others know this and take advantage. They see that a person wants to be in the know and write books about government secrets (many of which really aren't secret and others that are just pulled out of their ass), conspiracies, prophecies, etc. etc.. They say "hey, I got a secret for you," you pay them for that secret, you get to feel special (until you find out they were wrong, and try to figure out "miscalculations" if they haven't already), and they get your money.
It seems to me that YOU want to be in the know and feel special. You know an engineer that let you in on a little secret about the Canadian oil sands, right?

That's simply human nature to want to be special and informed.

Quote:
Y2K anyone? People turned what was simply a condensed representation of the date in binary format into this big deal. "Computers would go crazy and lose your money". I laughed when I heard it. Every computer scientist and engineer knows that once a binary digit reaches all ones, all the counter does is reset. No one listened to those who used rational and logic to explain that nothing would happen, and many used this scam to profit off of unsuspecting people. Hell, they tried to say it would happen in 2001 since that was the "real" millennium, which had nothing to do with the original problem posed by computer scientists.
The counter resetting is what the fuss was about, right? The "19xx" was assumed in those early program subroutines that were incorporated in later, more sophisticated software. The problem was that calculating certain things like hours worked for a payroll (for one example) depended on subtracting dates properly. You might subtract 12/20/99 from 12/27/99 to get 7 days worked in a pay period. But if you subtracted 12/28/99 from 01/03/00 you would get a negative number of days worked, which would be rejected by data checks in the program. If you need to crank out paychecks for 10,000 employees and couldn't do it by computer, that would become a big headache.

It was a real problem, but I wasn't too concerned about it at the time ...... I looked around and found out that banks, industries, and govt were quietly throwing enormous amounts of money into patches, later it turned out to have been hundreds of billions of dollars. It wasn't that the CEO of Bank of America was some sort of buffoon getting his opinion from the Art Bell Show, for example, but he got alarming information from his high-priced technical advisors, and then funded an expensive program to fix the problem.

Quote:
The end of the world, civilization, industrialization, etc have been predicted so many times and no one has been correct on it. "Secrets" about various entities have been spread for ages and again, usually a lie. It always ends in embarrassment or riches for these people.
I'm not sure I understand why you think that civilizations have never ended. Have you read no world history further back than about the 19th century?

However the total cessation of civilization and industry isn't what I'm claiming. "The end of the world as we know it" or TEOTWAWKI is more like it .... things are going to change drastically. It's kind of like the Tibetan Buddhist concept of "bardo", often mistranslated as "death". It actually means something more like an abrupt and irreversible transition, such as childhood to adolesence, or more commonly from living to whatever lies beyond our human lives.

Temporarily our infrastructure will collapse and we'll be forced into a 3rd world sort of existance, much like the current 3rd world lives, in my opinion. I have no opinion on how long that will last.
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Old 10-09-2008, 07:42 PM
 
Location: SoCal
316 posts, read 654,523 times
Reputation: 69
Another good Doomer newsite !
Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

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Old 10-09-2008, 10:27 PM
 
1,020 posts, read 2,338,088 times
Reputation: 547
Quote:
The counter resetting is what the fuss was about, right? The "19xx" was assumed in those early program subroutines that were incorporated in later, more sophisticated software. The problem was that calculating certain things like hours worked for a payroll (for one example) depended on subtracting dates properly. You might subtract 12/20/99 from 12/27/99 to get 7 days worked in a pay period. But if you subtracted 12/28/99 from 01/03/00 you would get a negative number of days worked, which would be rejected by data checks in the program. If you need to crank out paychecks for 10,000 employees and couldn't do it by computer, that would become a big headache.

It was a real problem, but I wasn't too concerned about it at the time ...... I looked around and found out that banks, industries, and govt were quietly throwing enormous amounts of money into patches, later it turned out to have been hundreds of billions of dollars. It wasn't that the CEO of Bank of America was some sort of buffoon getting his opinion from the Art Bell Show, for example, but he got alarming information from his high-priced technical advisors, and then funded an expensive program to fix the problem.
Actually, most programs use what is called the UNIX/POSIX time stamp, a 32-bit signed integer that counts the seconds since 00:00 January 1, 1970 UTC. This would not have been affected even with the 2000 carry over. The way many got their years to show up was by doing an integer divide on the number by 365d*24h*60m*60s, formulate the leap year offset, and do integer divides to get the days, months, seconds, etc. (Luckily, there are libraries that do this for the programmer). The timestamp most people see is not what the computer or program is truly processing. It counts seconds and goes through a convenient library to show us human readable time.

Now, for the people who do love doom and gloom, look up the 2038 problem, as that is when the 32bit integer will reach it's peak in the positive direction (first bit = 0) and will carry over into PAST time (first bit = 1). However, I'm pretty sure t_time will be replaced by a 64 bit integer that can measure back in time before the start of the universe, and to a future point where I don't think humans will be around anymore.
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Old 10-09-2008, 10:59 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 12,851,010 times
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They may be doing that now, runningincircles, I haven't been keeping up - but in 1999 many business programs were using library functions that had been developed many years before for slow 8-bit chips. It's simply easier and faster to design a gargantuan program or system using modules that had been written beforehand, no sense in continually re-inventing the wheel (except it would have been a good idea to re-invent some of those library functions well before the year 2000!)
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Old 10-10-2008, 09:37 AM
 
1,020 posts, read 2,338,088 times
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POSIX has been around since the early 80s. By the 90s pretty much 90% of business machines were using 32 bit processors, and most of those "old libraries" were updated to work on the new machines' op code, much as gcc standards, IEEE standards, OSs, software, and libraries are being updated for the 64-bit machines on the market.
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Old 10-10-2008, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,631,796 times
Reputation: 27642
Quote:
Originally Posted by runningncircles1 View Post
POSIX has been around since the early 80s. By the 90s pretty much 90% of business machines were using 32 bit processors, and most of those "old libraries" were updated to work on the new machines' op code, much as gcc standards, IEEE standards, OSs, software, and libraries are being updated for the 64-bit machines on the market.
Did you work on the Y2K software problems ?
Did you work on any "banking software"..you know the home grown inhouse custom software that was decades old and never upgraded because "it still works"?

In 1999 there was still plenty of 16 bit around. June is when businesses started panicing about their software. Programmers around the world groaned in unison and started putting in the overtime
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Old 11-24-2009, 10:03 PM
 
1 posts, read 1,460 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woof View Post
Please don't click on this if it's going to upset you. I rather enjoy reading this sort of thing and getting a little clearer picture of what lies ahead, but other people seem to get anxious or depressed by it, and that's not going to help you. Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html - broken link)
Woof - Breaking news on that site is great when it is updated. The guy running it is pretty undisciplined and sometimes the breaking news is not updated for a couple of days. The forum is awful. You'll find a few interesting, intelligent posts but overall it is overun by a pretty hateful bunch who basically spend their time insulting each other. Hanging out in a virtual trailer park is a poor waste of time IMHO. Try survivalblog.com. Excellent information.

Last edited by Parotz; 11-24-2009 at 10:33 PM.. Reason: Grammar
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Old 11-25-2009, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
13,145 posts, read 20,362,728 times
Reputation: 14041
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetway777 View Post
Don't forget your tin foil hat if you go on that site.
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Old 11-25-2009, 10:15 AM
 
Location: 3rd Rock fts
749 posts, read 1,004,804 times
Reputation: 304
COSMOS, EARTH, & MAN---A short story of the Universe. This book was written in 1978 by Preston Cloud.

Just read chapter 19 (Posterity’s World). It explains in detail about mining raw materials & peak oil; he even talks about the oil-sands of Canada. The accuracy & details (charts, etc…) is startling for a book that’s 30+ years old.

The reason for this post is to let people know that this stuff has been thought out by geniuses’ a long time ago. Also, Preston Cloud is not a doomsdayer.
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