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Thread summary:

Seeking advice and comments on state of economy, another great depression, theories on economic crisis, is economy doomed, the end of prosperity

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Old 10-10-2008, 08:42 AM
Rei Rei started this thread
 
Location: Los Angeles
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Just to counter the prediction on upcoming depression thread (//www.city-data.com/forum/busin...ir-up-new.html)

Do you guys have any theory on why it's not possible for us to fall into another great depression? Or are we pretty much doomed???
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:08 AM
 
Location: In My Own Little World. . .
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I think the answer to that is simply no one knows. We're hearing contradictory info from all the "experts", politicians, and talking heads. No one seems to know where we're going from here. In fact, it seems no one even knows what to say.
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Broward County
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we are headed towards collapse. I bought more ammo today. I have stockpiled food and I am packing now all the time
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Old 10-10-2008, 10:19 AM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei View Post
Just to counter the prediction on upcoming depression thread (//www.city-data.com/forum/busin...ir-up-new.html)

Do you guys have any theory on why it's not possible for us to fall into another great depression? Or are we pretty much doomed???
I would say at this point nothing is IMPOSSIBLE?
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Old 10-10-2008, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Backwoods of Maine
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While nothing is impossible, the likelihood of Great Depression II is lessening, IMHO.

Usually, when something appears on the cover of Time or one of the big news magazines, it's about to be "so yesterday". And...Time just came out with a cover that said, ahem -

"The End Of Prosperity?"
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Old 10-10-2008, 11:11 AM
 
Location: SoCal
316 posts, read 652,475 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nor'Eastah View Post
While nothing is impossible, the likelihood of Great Depression II is lessening, IMHO.

Usually, when something appears on the cover of Time or one of the big news magazines, it's about to be "so yesterday". And...Time just came out with a cover that said, ahem -

"The End Of Prosperity?"
The End of Prosperity? - TIME
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Old 10-10-2008, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Chino, CA
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I don't think we'll hit Great Depression II. It may sound cool and all, but I don't think the central banks, and our government are going to let a total collapse of our current financial markets and main street.

More than likely, as they are already doing, they are going to pump/inject cash so the economy can stay afloat.

Ideally, they will follow a similar system as what Roubini outlined in his triage... systematically injecting cash into banks, taking equity stakes, letting some banks fail, and injecting cash into the household sector to reduce debt.
Prof Roubini prescribes first aid for America’s economy « Fabius Maximus

In a sense, the central governments will be taking from the rich, and giving it to the poor/in debited by devaluing the currencies. After all, it was the top 95% percentile that benefited the most out of the credit expansion and made it possible, and therefore, it'll be the top 95% percentile that should be punished the most.

I know this is not the popular opinion on the board. But, I feel that this is the most likely scenario.

-chuck22b
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:28 PM
 
Location: Some place very cold
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
In a sense, the central governments will be taking from the rich, and giving it to the poor/in debited by devaluing the currencies. After all, it was the top 95% percentile that benefited the most out of the credit expansion and made it possible, and therefore, it'll be the top 95% percentile that should be punished the most.
-chuck22b
I think you might have that backwards, chuck22b
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,043,480 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woof Woof Woof! View Post
I think you might have that backwards, chuck22b
It depends on how the central banks and governments distribute the added cash/injections. Currently, they are mostly benefiting the rich with their injections into banks and buying up equity stakes.

Without helping out households and the middle class, more households will default and therefore cause more banks to default causing a continuous cycle of having to pump/inject capital to the banks/rich.

So, from what I can tell, they will have to at some point address households and the low/middle classes. They might soon start injecting cash towards the middle/lower classes with another round of stimulus checks (which helps the lower/middle classes more than the rich).

-chuck22b
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Old 10-10-2008, 01:17 PM
 
19,193 posts, read 16,778,176 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
It depends on how the central banks and governments distribute the added cash/injections. Currently, they are mostly benefiting the rich with their injections into banks and buying up equity stakes.

Without helping out households and the middle class, more households will default and therefore cause more banks to default causing a continuous cycle of having to pump/inject capital to the banks/rich.

So, from what I can tell, they will have to at some point address households and the low/middle classes. They might soon start injecting cash towards the middle/lower classes with another round of stimulus checks (which helps the lower/middle classes more than the rich).

-chuck22b
Hi chuck22b,

You get it and good for you
If retirement accounts have gone down by 2 trillion and real state by more than that, not to mention commodities dropping like rocks I am really curious how a measly 1 trillion will cause an inflationary spiral? Really, I would love to have the mechanics of that explained to me.
Now what they are doing is again exactly as you say. Our assets are deflating and they are printing up theirs to stay afloat to buy up ours cheap. That is what is know as stealing.

Finally someone who sees clearly....
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