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Housing market analysis forecasts housing prices will continue to fall, declining housing market, 20% price drop since peak in 2006, US economic struggles
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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US house prices face long fall to bottom: analysts - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/financebankingushousingpropertyprice - broken link)
Quote:
"In terms of prices, I don't think they'll bottom out until the end of next year and I don't think they're going to bounce back. They'll crawl back," chief economist for ratings agency Standard & Poor's, David Wyss, told AFP.
He sees another 10 percent fall over the next year measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller property survey that tracks prices in 20 cities. The market has fallen by 20 percent since its peak of July 2006.
Sounds just about right to me. Although I leaning toward 15% to 20% in some areas of the U.S.
Houses fell in value just 20%? How lucky those people are. Where I just left in Las Vegas the average home lost 50% in value. Miami, Detroit, Pheonix and some areas of Southern Calif saw simular loss.
But it could be more. If some statistic or comp says your home is now worth $150,000 the truth is that it is worth that if someone is willing to pay. But since no one is willing to buy it then economics say it ain't worth that much either.
Your right...the housing market is going to make a very very long slow return to normal. Perhaps 8-10 years.
I think that we will see it drop and then rise some in the future except fo areas where it went out of site. Mcuh of it was brought on by sheap easy credit ;so that has to be worked out of the system. I can see many areas that are increasing fast in unempoyment that had skyrocketing valutions having vacant properties as people move to find work. Ohter areas they are moving to hopefully will not suffer the same as crdit will be harder to get and not cheap.
How are the tax evaluations going to hold up. I know in my area the county and the school board are still spending like it is 2006. When is that balloon going to burst?
It's impossible to say housing has declined 20% thus far as a general rule. In many areas of the country there is no market for houses at any price so the value can easily be ascertained as zero. The value of the home is purely what the market is willing to pay. Most banks and people are not willing to actually test the bottom out of fear. In the industrial midwest, Cleveland, Detroit, Ohio, etc there are areas where the decline may be 60-70% and even then no buyers.
The lower the better. Expensive real estate is a drain and reflects a weak economy. In my view, real estate can never be too low.
I completely agree with you. I think it's better to have realistic real estate values and many transactions taking place rather than high values and nobody buying or selling. A flat market benefits very few.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick
The lower the better. ... In my view, real estate can never be too low.
yes, especially for those on fixed income.
Property taxes & insurance can kill us. At the growth rate of the last 10 yrs, my property taxes will be over a $100,000 / yr by the time I reach the age for a senior exemption (they will 'freeze' at age 65 of I make less than $30k/yr.)
I built the place to live in it (cheaply), not to re-sell it. It won't make me rich, I will just have to go find some other 'over-inflated' joint to lay my head. I would be plenty content with my first house; cost me $16,000, payments were $128.84 and utilities were $8/month. It was warm and dry.
The lower the better. Expensive real estate is a drain and reflects a weak economy. In my view, real estate can never be too low.
...The economic caveat, which a good many non homeowners fail to grasp, is that when the value of assets as critical to the economy as home values crashes, the current value of the current owners's COLLECTIVE assets crashes in kind...this is very bad for EVERYONE...even the barista @ Starbucks, who rents a studio apartment in Anywhere, USA.....for example...
1) Your employer, American Bar & Grill, is in the restaurant business. You have been a good and loyal employee for many years... and have been diligently saving for as many years, you see the current housing value declines as a terrific opportunity to finally get your piece of the American Dream...
problem.....
2) Your patrons, who have been loyal customers of yours for many years, are currently losing their homes in foreclosure at an alarming, unpresidented rate to toxic ARM rate adjustments, and are forced to move out of town, or in with relatives, if they are lucky, if not, into their cars or onto the street. They almost overnight, while gainfully and honestly employed, are unable to afford the basics of living, let alone the luxury of dining out...
meanwhile, back at the ranch..
Your senior citizen customers (who we PRAY now own their homes free and clear, if not ,are potential and probable victims of a double jeopardy with regards to the above scenario, with the addition of this next one! ) are seeing their retirement portfolios shrink, and, at 70 something years of age, do not have the luxury of time to recoup the losses...no more senior discount dinners for them, gonna stay home and eat soup...or dog food..don't laugh..this has been played out all to many times in recent history with fixed income seniors...could be you someday....
So, now, my friend, YOUR customer base has been diminished, as has your income, and you have been having to dip into your savings recently, the very savings you were rat holing away to finally use as a downpayment on your home...
..and in as much as your customer base has diminished...the restaurant owner, who you work for, well, that is actually HIS customer base that has diminished...he has his own personal living expenses to pay too...gotta make some difficult decisions....
YOU ARE LAID OFF.....and the paltry remains of that home downpayment savings you have been dipping into recently to offset your decreasing income.?
*****GONE*****
....deflation is far worse than inflation....
Be careful what you wish for.........you just might get it.............
Last edited by MissDaisy; 10-20-2008 at 02:00 AM..
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It was warm and dry.
