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Old 11-06-2008, 09:12 PM
 
Location: NJ
2,111 posts, read 7,967,241 times
Reputation: 1024

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stac2007 View Post
I heard we can expect 8% but does it really matter? Obama will pay my mortgage, car loan, student loan, utilities, stairway to heaven. I will be just fine.
And also help out Kenya, Indonesia and everybody else around the world that are so jubilant he won.
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Old 11-07-2008, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,302,001 times
Reputation: 4111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe View Post
Will this thread be like the other predicting a 1000 point jump the day after the election?

In other words, OP wrote "DOW 7700 here we come" -- will Friday actually see an 800 point rally?

It's entirely possible.

DOW Futures up 65 at 11:00pm EST.
I'm seeing up 110 points in early trading.

It could certainly change, but so far the original poster's claim that "a jump to 6.5% will crash the markets like no other in recent memory" looks as myopic as the other predicting a big jump on Wednesday.

Well done.
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Old 11-07-2008, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,302,001 times
Reputation: 4111
After all the ups and downs, the market closes up 248 points. So SouthCali4LifeSD isn't as much of a crachhead as heydade (the guy who predicted a 1000 point leap on November 5th when it actually dropped 450+ and another 440+ the next day), but he certainly didn't pick the right direction either.

My point in my first post is that the market already factored in the bad news. You can't expect it be worse than expected because that doesn't make any sense.

Maybe we can see an end to these wild one-day predictions. Longer-term trends are fine but predicting a 10% movement up or down in one day is lunacy as we've seen from these two threads. And the thing is that it's still lunacy even if both posters had been RIGHT.
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Old 11-07-2008, 02:24 PM
 
Location: Texas
5,012 posts, read 7,897,254 times
Reputation: 5698
sold DXD at the open. took a little hit, but still turned a nice profit. on the sidelines know until the market makes its next big move one way or the other. Bearish over the intermediate and long term. more pain ahead.
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Old 11-07-2008, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
2,193 posts, read 5,067,360 times
Reputation: 1075
I'm surprised the stock market went up today considering the unemployment numbers are getting scarier.
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Old 11-07-2008, 02:42 PM
 
Location: NW MT
1,436 posts, read 3,313,932 times
Reputation: 551
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheenie2000 View Post
I'm surprised the stock market went up today considering the unemployment numbers are getting scarier.
I think those scary numbers got priced in with the 2 big drop days this week. As things worsen over the next 6 to 12 months things are going to get even scarier. I don't think we are anywhere near a bottom yet. Real unemployment is just getting started.
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Old 11-07-2008, 03:35 PM
 
Location: San Diego
936 posts, read 3,201,763 times
Reputation: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe View Post
I'm seeing up 110 points in early trading.

It could certainly change, but so far the original poster's claim that "a jump to 6.5% will crash the markets like no other in recent memory" looks as myopic as the other predicting a big jump on Wednesday.

Well done.
nepenthe, get your head out of your a.s.s... i didn't say that the crash would happen on friday... i'm saying that the dow will hit 7,700 which will be a new low in this bear market, and from there, it will get even worse in months to come. i never said that ON FRIDAY FOLKS, THE DOW WILL PLUNGE. i said, DOW 7,700, HERE WE COME!!! because it will come...

p.s... i was right about the 6.5% unemployment... maybe you should trust me more then the "analysts"
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Old 11-07-2008, 03:41 PM
 
Location: San Diego
936 posts, read 3,201,763 times
Reputation: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe View Post
After all the ups and downs, the market closes up 248 points. So SouthCali4LifeSD isn't as much of a crachhead as heydade (the guy who predicted a 1000 point leap on November 5th when it actually dropped 450+ and another 440+ the next day), but he certainly didn't pick the right direction either.

My point in my first post is that the market already factored in the bad news. You can't expect it be worse than expected because that doesn't make any sense.

Maybe we can see an end to these wild one-day predictions. Longer-term trends are fine but predicting a 10% movement up or down in one day is lunacy as we've seen from these two threads. And the thing is that it's still lunacy even if both posters had been RIGHT.
maybe you're the crackhead for being so optimistic about the current american economy. you've been nothing but wrong while me and many others have said when the dow was at 12,000 that it will trickle down towards the 6,000s, and it's more then half way there. hindsight bias is a b.i.t.c.h i guess, right?
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Old 11-07-2008, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,302,001 times
Reputation: 4111
Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthCali4LifeSD View Post
nepenthe, get your head out of your a.s.s... i didn't say that the crash would happen on friday... i'm saying that the dow will hit 7,700 which will be a new low in this bear market, and from there, it will get even worse in months to come. i never said that ON FRIDAY FOLKS, THE DOW WILL PLUNGE. i said, DOW 7,700, HERE WE COME!!! because it will come...

p.s... i was right about the 6.5% unemployment... maybe you should trust me more then the "analysts"
I thought 6.5% as well, from listening to analysts. Big deal. SO DID EVERYONE ELSE. That is my point.

You said "a jump to 6.5% will crash the markets like no other in recent memory" -- it jumped to 6.5% and today was up. Recent memory? What did you mean by recent memory? Look, I read your thread as a prediction of the market movement as a response to the unemployment news which came out today, not as a "6.5% will signal that in the long run we're going to see a fall." If you didn't actually mean that 6.5% would cause the market to move then I implore you to be a little more clear when citing very specific figures released on very specific days.

The fact is, the response to 6.5% was not a crash like no other in recent memory. Now you're backing off and saying that it's not the 6.5% on Friday but everything else that will come out BESIDES 6.5% on Friday.
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Old 11-07-2008, 03:57 PM
 
Location: San Diego
936 posts, read 3,201,763 times
Reputation: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe View Post
I thought 6.5% as well, from listening to analysts. Big deal. SO DID EVERYONE ELSE. That is my point.

You said "a jump to 6.5% will crash the markets like no other in recent memory" -- it jumped to 6.5% and today was up. Recent memory? What did you mean by recent memory? Look, I read your thread as a prediction of the market movement as a response to the unemployment news which came out today, not as a "6.5% will signal that in the long run we're going to see a fall." If you didn't actually mean that 6.5% would cause the market to move then I implore you to be a little more clear when citing very specific figures released on very specific days.

The fact is, the response to 6.5% was not a crash like no other in recent memory. Now you're backing off and saying that it's not the 6.5% on Friday but everything else that will come out BESIDES 6.5% on Friday.
NO, nepenthe, the WORST THEN EXPECTED job report is the PERFECT barometer for the current state of our economy and it's OBVIOUSLY getting worse, that's my point. when i said the worst crash in recent memory, i mean WORSE then 2000-2002 and 1987. Obviously CRASHES don't necessitate a ONE DAY DOOM AND GLOOM DROP. i am referring to a long term deepening recession that will see unemployment eventually hit 9 and 10% and a dow at 5 or 6,000 before anything turns around. maybe my posting did sound like i was referring to a friday crash. no, i'm not stupid enough to make short term predictions, although i can use evidence to support them, but long term, don't act like anything is getting better anytime soon!
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