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I find it fascinating when looking back at history in trying times with at least a 5 year window in what actually was vs what was perceived at the time.
So here is my question:
Is now bottom? Will we look at this 5 years from now and think this was the worst or are we in the middle or dare I say beginning.
Also, as for as the economy goes, if you were a builder or opening up a shop is now the time to start, does one open up shop now?
Example of this would be a department store. Let's say you are in a booming area in which demand is high, do you open now or do you wait it out.
Let's say you are a homebuilder, do you start building houses now or just keep waiting.
They say fortunes are made in tough times. It shall be interesting how this all plays out.
We still have the holidays to see what happens, if people will spend or not. My idea is that consumer spending is going to be WAY down. Lots of retail places are going to go bust, a lot. Unemployment will probably be 8% nationally. I am thinking we will officially bottom out in summer 2009. Real estate will bottom out around 2010-2011. 2009-2011 is definitely going to be a good year for all those who saved up, kept their credit scores high, and little to no debt because everything is going to be cheap as hell and I am hoping the dollar will remain relatively strong. After that though, the dollar will continue its plummeting in value. All these 5+ trillion bailouts are definitely going to hit the dollar badly sooner or later.
Anything could happen though.
Last edited by killer2021; 11-19-2008 at 11:34 PM..
I would not start a business at this time. I suggest keeping your current job, paying off all your debt, buy nothing on credit and stay home and horde. Just hunker down and wait it out.
Although these actions would not be good for the consumer economy they are good for the individual family. Let the FIRE economy die and RIP.
I'd wait till February, there will be more blood in the streets as this tax year ends. I'm buying small pieces of blue chips now, but am stocking up for a Spring buying spree...I hope...I was wrong in July/August.
I don't think this is a great time to start a business, unless you have money you can afford to lose. I doubt people will spend for the holidays. People are scared and trying to save every penny they can. Only the deepest sales will entice the majority of consumers, and they'll be shopping at Walmart, not Nordstroms or Saks. And they'll be buying smaller-ticket items, mainly for their kids.
Some retailers just won't make it and household names will be no more.
I wonder if Macy's and Starbucks will ask for bailouts, since they were once American icons?
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