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Was curious about this and just found the information. Basically the average price of oil for oil producing nations to have a fiscal balance is $57/barrel (its $49). The break even price (in terms of their budgets) for key mid east nations is:
I don't know the answer to your questions, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see another oil "bubble" within the next year.
Within the next year is highly unlikely.
Another bubble will occur when (if) the dollar starts to tank again and demand noticeably picks up in N. America, Europe and Asia. So far, everything indicates that demand will continue to decrease in those places. As for the dollar, it should only be inflated if the Fed's policies prove more inflationary vis-a-vis the European central bankers' actions.
Although anything's possible, I wouldn't put any money on any kind of bubbles happening in the foreseeable future. It appears that deflation is the issue, at least for the short-medium term. After that, it's anyone's guess.
The only option they have is to cut production to increase prices, but that cuts income so the OPEC cartel has mostly cheaters (selling as much as possible at market prices).
Expect a bunch of talk and oil prices to follow the strength in world economy... down for now up later.
I expect oil to go over 100 a barrel next year. There is simply too much risk of inflation once the socialist economy and bailout funds work their way through the system. ALso when foreign investors start dumping dollars to get hard assets. You can bet on it.
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