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Don't the quarterly numbers have to show up first before you can officially declare a recession? Well, I guess they just showed up - so now it's official.
i am not sure what numbers you all think didn't show a recession coming. i received an economic report from CB Richard Ellis 3 years ago with a 5 year projection of all major metropolises and it so far has been dead on, lol.
the government is making this worse and still hasn't addressed the problem with the bailout or the need for it. this country's government intervention has superseded itself and its intents.
i am not sure what numbers you all think didn't show a recession coming. i received an economic report from CB Richard Ellis 3 years ago with a 5 year projection of all major metropolises and it so far has been dead on, lol.
In addition to some of the aforementioned things, sometimes the problem is in how a person defines recession. For instance, I most often hear a recession defined something along the lines of: "a significant decline in activity in the economy that lasts no less than a few months." However, a person still has to decide what exactly is "significant" decline. One person will say it is, another will say it isn't.
If it's difficult to officially call a recession, trying to officially call a depression will be even harder if we get to that point, IMO.
There are well defined definitions.But like anyhtig it takes time tio get the data ;by that time we have been in one for awhile. Its like trying to call the bottom ;its over before the data is available.The fed has the best data.
I can't believe anybody thought we weren't in a recession. Yet the stock market plunge clearly indicates that some people were panicking at the "news."
But it's excellent that they're declaring that we've been in it a year. That puts us about halfway through, if past trends hold... and if we're really, really lucky. I think we'll be extremely fortunate to pull out of this next year, with all the bad news still on the horizon.
My wife and I work in commercial real estate and marketing, respectively. Both are the canaries in the coal mine, so to speak. 1Q, usually my busiest time of year, fell through the floor at the beginning of 2008. My wife's company is 50% off where it was last year.
The first stage of any recession is denial that it's actually happening.
The turning point is when everybody finally acknowledges the recession and believes the sky is falling.
This has absolutely nothing to do with when a recession is officially called. The folks that call it aren't in denial about anything, they are watching the data and most wait for the most reliable data to come in before they call it. Hence the delay....
yeah here in central fl we"ve been in a recession for 18 months easy maybe even closer to 2 years,when you have a business you can pretty much pin point when its coming or when it started you see first hand the sales trend.I know many sysco sales reps and truck drivers who tell me most businesses are down 50-80% over the last two years, theyre loosing accounts left and right.
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