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Old 12-14-2008, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,896,726 times
Reputation: 3587

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TennisDD View Post
I ask this for there has been ton of negative news these last two weeks and the Dow has gone from a low in the mid 7000's in Mid Nov to ending this week around 8600.

I know some doomsdayers will say this is just a blip, but the unemployment numbers were staggering, then you have the Senate vote last night, etc. etc.

Was this all factored in a month or to ago?

Are we out of the woods? Predictions!!!!

That way a year from now some will say they were the smartest, while others will, well not reply.

In Reality we are all guessing, the old saying "even a broken clock is right twice a day."
We have bottomed out and you need to get in on the up side NOW!
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Old 12-14-2008, 04:57 PM
 
12,869 posts, read 13,435,706 times
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obviously the worst is not over yet. citadel announced that it won't allow investors to withdraw money from its hedge funds, after a 50% drop:
Investors who asked to withdraw money at year end from Kensington and Wellington, with a combined $10 billion in assets, won't be allowed to, the Chicago firm said in a letter on Friday.
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Old 12-15-2008, 09:00 AM
 
1,831 posts, read 4,867,289 times
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Yeah, this is the bottom. I didn't expect the extra November drop but, it recovered quickly .... within a week.

There's been a ton of bad news and the market is holding steady in the mid 8000's. We could test the lows again but, that would just be another great buying opportunity, IMO.

People overlook the fact that a lot of the bad news is already priced in ... with a 40-45 percent correction already there's actually very little downside.
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Old 12-15-2008, 09:16 AM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,042,952 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TennisDD View Post

Are we out of the woods? Predictions!!!!
Out of the woods? We are not even into the woods, yet.

This is just "the rough" while heading into the woods.

Stock Market problem is they are running short on "Greater Fools" to buy the paper. Same thing that happened in Housing. Eventually you run out of idiots that will mindlessly sink money into the mess, and at the same time those active idiots eventually run out of money.

Game Over.

No, wait a second . . . if we can only get all those Chinese Workers to all buy a 401K plan, that will save US! Oh, this is genius. Yeah, thada do it.

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Old 12-15-2008, 04:16 PM
 
12,869 posts, read 13,435,706 times
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have you noticed that the chinese seem to be running their own game plays lately with their china-taiwan shipping / flight merger and the china-japan-south korea currency swap? hmmm.......
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Old 12-15-2008, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,746,517 times
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I have been following news from China. It's not hitting the MSM here but bits and pieces in different articles plus the fact that Paulsen flew over to talk to them indicates that China has turned their effort inward with their money. They are out to save themselves.

I guess the adage about saving the US to save the world is not proving to be true.
With all their reserves though..I do think China may have the upper hand here.

He who controls the money controls the rules.
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Old 12-15-2008, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Rockland County New York
2,984 posts, read 5,338,743 times
Reputation: 1295
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257 View Post
Yeah, this is the bottom. I didn't expect the extra November drop but, it recovered quickly .... within a week.

There's been a ton of bad news and the market is holding steady in the mid 8000's. We could test the lows again but, that would just be another great buying opportunity, IMO.

People overlook the fact that a lot of the bad news is already priced in ... with a 40-45 percent correction already there's actually very little downside.
Many investors believe the government is going provide additional financial support. Yes that means more bailout cash for the wealthy. It’s all about more speculation on Wall Street. Besides does anyone really believe the market is not being manipulated? Interesting.
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Old 12-15-2008, 08:30 PM
 
531 posts, read 1,135,588 times
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The market has alot of bad news priced in already. Market is usually several months ahead of the economy. People were in shock when the market kept dropping in Sept, Oct, Nov. The market was pricing in what was about to happen to the economy. Now the bad things are happening to the economy, and the market seems to be going up (it was up over 14% from it's lows).

People will be losing their jobs and it will be insulting for them because they will see the market going up at the same time.

Last downturn market bottomed in October of 2002, but unemployment peaked in June 2003.
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Old 12-15-2008, 09:17 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,556,211 times
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China will always try to save itself first, but if the great depression is any sign of things to come they aren't going to fare well. Remember, the US back then was the creditor nation that made things...for other nations on credit.
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Old 12-16-2008, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,884 posts, read 5,291,010 times
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I'm not in stocks, so with my own money, I don't think it was *the* bottom. Maybe a bottom.

But...

-It's hard for me to believe that all the bad news about the economy, the dollar, future interest rates, etc has been factored into stocks. What happens when bonds go to 8 or 10% or much higher?

If (when) bonds burst, that can't be good for stocks.

-The long term chart of the S&P is very ominous. A 30 year chart. Two gigantic bubbles at the end...how does it reflate?

The difference vs the 2002 decline is so many of these companies (banks, etc) have been damaged. How do you reflate a bubble when the FED has already used up most of it's bullets?

-More shoes to drop in banking, investment banking. Hard to believe it's all over. And everyone goes back to normal, business as usual?

It's true, after a 40-45% drop, there shouldn't be much downside. But the 90's bubble was so big, and so out of the ordinary, its going to look like a mirage the farther we go out.

So a possible short term rally, bottom. But longer term, I think we come back to the lows or break them.
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