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Old 12-14-2008, 11:04 AM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,248 posts, read 21,872,168 times
Reputation: 3587

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I am not worried about the recession. I think all the gloom and doom was way overblown to begin with and caused an over reaction that all of us will regret soon enough.
The fact that we are printing and throwing maybe trillions of dollars at this thing is going to lead to things you do not even want to think about. Things that will make today seem small.
Eventually and soon, the Arabs and Chinese who buy our debt are going to quit being stupid and figure out that this stuff is never going to get paid and they are going to quit showing up at the auctions. And, since nobody else wants to buy trillions in worthless paper, that means the Fed itself is going to have to buy it by printing money.
I predict that, in a few years, this recession will be a memory. Nobody will be talking about it anymore. What they will be talking about is the hyper inflation beginning to creep into the economy. And in 4 years, when it is running at 15% or more a year, people will REALLY be talking about it!
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Old 12-14-2008, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Beautiful Lakes & Mountains of East TN
3,454 posts, read 6,712,311 times
Reputation: 874
Kev, you and I differ in many views. Sadly, this is not one of them.

You're right on.
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Old 12-14-2008, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Backwoods of Maine
7,249 posts, read 8,558,740 times
Reputation: 19610
Yup, Kev, I agree, also.

Just looking around this forum here I see so many worrying about whether the Dow will start going up again, will real estate start going up again...oh, they'll start going up again, alright!

Trouble is, the money they pay you back won't buy much of anything. Now THAT's sad!
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Old 12-14-2008, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Charleston, SC
5,615 posts, read 13,139,612 times
Reputation: 2539
The big question I keep hearing about in the two financial forums I browse is when we'll move from a deflationary environment to inflation. Any guesses when it'll happen?

Aside from gas prices I haven't seen any deflation btw.
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Old 12-14-2008, 05:31 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,618,533 times
Reputation: 27602
The problem I see is that all the money the government is giving the banks is not circulating in the economy. That kinda puts the thought of inflation further out.

Right now there is no excess of money in circulation. Until the money starts flowing we're stuck with deflation. That is what Paulsen and Bernake are trying to stem.
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Old 12-14-2008, 05:41 PM
 
3,283 posts, read 4,752,091 times
Reputation: 753
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK View Post
I am not worried about the recession. I think all the gloom and doom was way overblown to begin with and caused an over reaction that all of us will regret soon enough.
The fact that we are printing and throwing maybe trillions of dollars at this thing is going to lead to things you do not even want to think about. Things that will make today seem small.
Eventually and soon, the Arabs and Chinese who buy our debt are going to quit being stupid and figure out that this stuff is never going to get paid and they are going to quit showing up at the auctions. And, since nobody else wants to buy trillions in worthless paper, that means the Fed itself is going to have to buy it by printing money.
I predict that, in a few years, this recession will be a memory. Nobody will be talking about it anymore. What they will be talking about is the hyper inflation beginning to creep into the economy. And in 4 years, when it is running at 15% or more a year, people will REALLY be talking about it!
right on but you forgot to mention the Economic 'Patriot Act'!
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Old 12-14-2008, 05:58 PM
 
48,509 posts, read 86,072,387 times
Reputation: 18105
Its too hard too predict what reaslly is ahead. I worry more about the interest on the deficit than inflation as of now. I thnik that the cinese and the arabs have too much investmnant ihn the US to do anyhting that will start the as well as the US down hill since this is a global economy. They certainly don't like the way thiongs are going right now with markets and commidi9es down. Thios may just be a learning lesson for alot more than the western world. Its a example of just how much the worlds ecomies are tied to each other IMO. Most people afterall predicted hyper inflation now like we saw in the 70's but things are different now.I thnik that its these cahnages that make what happenjs noramlly in a recession completely different than even the 80's and has even economist wandering.
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Old 12-14-2008, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Hope, AR
1,505 posts, read 2,853,111 times
Reputation: 248
Hyperinflation is a lot more than 15% a year

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK View Post
I am not worried about the recession. I think all the gloom and doom was way overblown to begin with and caused an over reaction that all of us will regret soon enough.
The fact that we are printing and throwing maybe trillions of dollars at this thing is going to lead to things you do not even want to think about. Things that will make today seem small.
Eventually and soon, the Arabs and Chinese who buy our debt are going to quit being stupid and figure out that this stuff is never going to get paid and they are going to quit showing up at the auctions. And, since nobody else wants to buy trillions in worthless paper, that means the Fed itself is going to have to buy it by printing money.
I predict that, in a few years, this recession will be a memory. Nobody will be talking about it anymore. What they will be talking about is the hyper inflation beginning to creep into the economy. And in 4 years, when it is running at 15% or more a year, people will REALLY be talking about it!
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Old 12-14-2008, 07:02 PM
 
1,532 posts, read 1,457,161 times
Reputation: 384
Here is a link to a man in Argentina where inflation is rampant, it is his day to day living and surviving. There economy fell in 2001 and they are still in a depression;

Frugal's Forums: Thoughts on Urban Survival. COMPLETE !! A MUST READ FOR ALL SQUIRRELS!!!

copied from his website: Ferfal-- Since food prices went up about 200%-300%. People would cut expenses wherever they could so they could buy food. Some ate whatever they could; they hunted birds or ate street dogs and cats, others starved. When it comes to food, cities suck in a crisis. It is usually the lack of food or the impossibility to acquire it that starts the rioting and looting when TSHTF.
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Old 12-14-2008, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,551,660 times
Reputation: 592
The Chinese and oil exporting nations can't stop purchasing treasuries without dire consequences to their own economies. The idea that they are one day just going to stop is mere fiction.

The Chinese and oil exporting nations aren't buying US assets because they are being nice..... and its really funny that people think that nobody in the Chinese government is smart enough to think what they are suggesting...
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