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Old 12-15-2008, 11:55 AM
 
48,509 posts, read 86,180,553 times
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If you watched any of the hearing last week with former officals from Fnnaie mae and mac ;they said that there will be two more waves of forcloures coming ;according just to fanines data which is there to see. One described and then a second has unempolyment gets worse. Then there is the report from first and second quarters that 53% and 58% of froeclosure refis have gone into foreclosuire again.
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Old 12-15-2008, 11:58 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zman0 View Post
Really? There are two lots being built up (homes sold already) on my street and several have sold in the last couple of months. Sounds like there's support for real estate at the prices in my area.
Sounds like you were lucky enough to live in an area that didn't have bubblesque price 'appreciation' from 2000 to 2005. In my area, Northern Virginia, we had 5+ years of double-digit price 'appreciation' yet incomes were basically flat. It's quite simple really, people don't enjoy spending 50% (or more) of their income on housing, yet they were willing to do it because they thought the house would appreciate at 20% or more per year indefinitely. Obviously, now that reality has shown that houses do not appreciate indefinitely, people are no longer interested in being a financial slave to a house. People are beginning, once again, to view a house as simply a place to live, not a winning lotto ticket.

However, if you really believe that no bubble exists in real estate, and that we're not in a correction, please explain the boat loads of data that are in opposition to your theory. You can start by explaining the attached graph, along with the nationwide decline in house prices, along with record numbers of foreclosures, along with all the government efforts to try and prop-up house prices, etc... Can you explain why all these are occuring if there is "market support" for house prices at their current levels?

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Old 12-15-2008, 01:29 PM
 
878 posts, read 1,917,633 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mojo_1979 View Post
Sounds like you were lucky enough to live in an area that didn't have bubblesque price 'appreciation' from 2000 to 2005. In my area, Northern Virginia, we had 5+ years of double-digit price 'appreciation' yet incomes were basically flat. It's quite simple really, people don't enjoy spending 50% (or more) of their income on housing, yet they were willing to do it because they thought the house would appreciate at 20% or more per year indefinitely. Obviously, now that reality has shown that houses do not appreciate indefinitely, people are no longer interested in being a financial slave to a house. People are beginning, once again, to view a house as simply a place to live, not a winning lotto ticket.

However, if you really believe that no bubble exists in real estate, and that we're not in a correction, please explain the boat loads of data that are in opposition to your theory. You can start by explaining the attached graph, along with the nationwide decline in house prices, along with record numbers of foreclosures, along with all the government efforts to try and prop-up house prices, etc... Can you explain why all these are occuring if there is "market support" for house prices at their current levels?
Yes, I can define my position. Quite easily in fact: Real estate is local.

$200,000 will not buy you much in New York City.
But in Kansas City, $200,000 will buy you a very nice home.

In high demand areas such as parts of California and Florida, real estate was at a premium. The number of people wanting to buy houses against the amount of real estate drove up prices. Or, as StoneOne has said (paraphrasing): the market value of a home is based on the scarcity of the resource (real estate).

It's simple market economics.

By the way, I wasn't "lucky" to live in an area with stable housing, I chose to live here. I found a job where the cost of living is affordable relative to income.
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Old 12-15-2008, 01:57 PM
 
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I am convinced that our system of housing valuation is rigged to benefit certain groups.

When demand is high, prices readily go up. Our system has no trouble accomodating astronomical price increases. Nobody cares about past sales; the system goes to great lengths to ensure that prices increase with demand.

But when demand falls.. sometimes sharply... all these biased, interested parties change the rules of the game, and refuse to allow prices go down. A 5% or 10% decrease in 1 year is pure tragedy to these people. They suddenly ignore demand, it all becomes about "past sales."
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Old 12-15-2008, 02:30 PM
 
4,271 posts, read 14,173,251 times
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Wow, I thought the current housing mess included the AltA and option ARM loans, not just the subprime. That's a scary thought that those are just now starting to reset. I feel awful about the families but at the same time, I find it incredible that people were so wreckless with their decision-making - like that acupuncture lady. I feel even worse for the repo guys who have to go in there when families are still in the house. That must be tough.
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Old 12-15-2008, 02:42 PM
 
Location: State of Superior
8,632 posts, read 14,241,586 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foma View Post
Wow, I thought the current housing mess included the AltA and option ARM loans, not just the subprime. That's a scary thought that those are just now starting to reset. I feel awful about the families but at the same time, I find it incredible that people were so wreckless with their decision-making - like that acupuncture lady. I feel even worse for the repo guys who have to go in there when families are still in the house. That must be tough.
At this time of year ... I wonder if they repo the Christmas tree , and the presents for the kids.?.......The Repo guys are doing quite well , its going to be a great Christmas for most of them. One of the few areas that are hiring, check it out , maybe a place for a bright future.
I talked to a auto repo guy the other day , they too are booming. The Repo lots are getting overflowing . The guy said he was shopping for more land to expand his business. pawn shops are doing a land office business as well. many have expanded to include big ticket items , like exotic cars and yachts. Look for a lot of auctions coming up as well , .theres another good business to be in , auctioneering.
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Old 12-15-2008, 02:58 PM
 
4,271 posts, read 14,173,251 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darstar View Post
At this time of year ... I wonder if they repo the Christmas tree , and the presents for the kids.?.......The Repo guys are doing quite well , its going to be a great Christmas for most of them. One of the few areas that are hiring, check it out , maybe a place for a bright future.
I talked to a auto repo guy the other day , they too are booming. The Repo lots are getting overflowing . The guy said he was shopping for more land to expand his business. pawn shops are doing a land office business as well. many have expanded to include big ticket items , like exotic cars and yachts. Look for a lot of auctions coming up as well , .theres another good business to be in , auctioneering.
Funny u mentioned car repo, too, 'cuz we're currently in the market for a house and in a couple of the forclosed home pics, there's like 3+ cars sittin' in front of the garage. I have very little sympathy for people who were just blatantly stupid.
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Old 12-15-2008, 03:13 PM
 
Location: State of Superior
8,632 posts, read 14,241,586 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foma View Post
Funny u mentioned car repo, too, 'cuz we're currently in the market for a house and in a couple of the forclosed home pics, there's like 3+ cars sittin' in front of the garage. I have very little sympathy for people who were just blatantly stupid.
That doesn't mean much these days. cars are losing values faster than homes. If you are in the market for a car , chances are you will get a better deal if you just park the old one , and , part it out.
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Old 12-15-2008, 03:14 PM
 
16,092 posts, read 37,255,470 times
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If you had gotten the right adjustable mortgage, it should adjust down with the fall of interest rates. Me, I go in for short-term (5-7-15 years) FIXED rates.
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Old 12-15-2008, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,670 posts, read 5,373,404 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zman0 View Post
Yes, I can define my position. Quite easily in fact: Real estate is local.

$200,000 will not buy you much in New York City.
But in Kansas City, $200,000 will buy you a very nice home.
Oh around here $200K gets you a 3500 square foot brand new house with some really decent upgrades and a large yard. $130K gets you a brand new house at 2300 square feet. The insane prices and ridiculous market swings seem like another world when you look around here. Houses are very affordable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zman0 View Post
By the way, I wasn't "lucky" to live in an area with stable housing, I chose to live here. I found a job where the cost of living is affordable relative to income.
I was lucky enough to find myself here in north texas but chose to stay once I realized there were numerous benefits rather than move to either coast.
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