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Old 12-16-2008, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Way up high
15,305 posts, read 21,780,808 times
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To say the truth, I'm not familiar with the Depression or truly know what a recession is. However, it is 2008/9 and obviously things are a lot different than in the 30's. I honestly don't see people starving in the street, etc as we now have more options than back then..
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Old 12-16-2008, 10:43 AM
 
Location: WA
5,472 posts, read 21,917,936 times
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I don't think it is blown up at all. From my perspective...

All work prospects I have are dead including work I was doing for two Charlotte based banks. I cannot find work of any kind. Every service I use including all utilities have gone up as much as they can and local governments are trying to find ways to raise taxes. My portfolio is half of what it was, my home has dropped 20% in value, and I have reduced spending as much as I can.

Obviously there is still room for things to get worse but I am sure not looking forward to that.
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Old 12-16-2008, 11:44 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
2,193 posts, read 4,617,007 times
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I don't think the media is overreacting. I just wish they would share more information about what is going on. They bring in these so called experts who don't know much and when they really do have experts come on, they cut them off. Or make them talk in under 30 seconds. I mean what's the rush? Oh I forgot they have cut to advertise some pharmacy drug or a new toy. We have 24 hour news coverage but they don't have time to explain everything.
I for one would love to see more detail and analysis on the issues that are going on today. But you have to find that online and really dig for it.

I live in Charlotte as well. I'm surprised though, that you haven't noticed a lot of businesses shutting down? I walk into stores and see a lot of signs saying going out of business or shutting down this location (like Office Max). I'm also surprised you haven't noticed the heavily discounted merchandise at stores. I just bought some clothes that were 60% off with an additional 20% off. Office furniture is 75% off at some stores as well. Also just in charlotte Wachovia was taken over once that merger takes place there will be layoffs. BofA will be cutting 30,000 people. I know my own projects (within BofA) there has been cutbacks in funding and layoffs amongst contractors so far.

I agree that we may not see starvation on the streets but there are many changes that are occurring as we speak.
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Old 12-16-2008, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,781,320 times
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I noticed it as well this weekend. Kohl's had almost everything marked 50-60-70% off and this is BEFORE Christmas. Imagine what it will be like after Christmas ? I don't see how they can make a profit with that big of a mark down. Oh..and this was before an additional 15% off coupon they mailed out. I did get a nice winter jacket for about 70% discount over the weekend.
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Old 12-16-2008, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Windsor, Vero Beach, FL
897 posts, read 2,612,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NCN View Post
I did not know how lucky I was that I never had time to watch it before.
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Old 12-16-2008, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,558,423 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
A depression would be, by their common definition, a period over which GDP falls 10% -- that would take a whole lot of quarters of the -0.13% decline of '08 q3 -- like through two or more presidencies -- I just do not see that happening, ever.
Perhaps while your head was in the sand you didn't think of looking up estimates of 08 Q4? Q4 is likely to see an annualized rate decline of 5~6%. Even optimistic estimates have it at around 3%.

The whole depression vs recession thing is banal though. The current economic downturn is going to be long and deep no matter what you want to call it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I noticed it as well this weekend. Kohl's had almost everything marked 50-60-70% off and this is BEFORE Christmas. Imagine what it will be like after Christmas ? I don't see how they can make a profit with that big of a mark down.
Kohl's regularly has almost everything marketed at 40~50% off, that is essentially their normal price. A discount of more than 50% represents a sale in the land of Kohl's.

You don't see how they can make a profit with that big of a market down because you don't realize just how huge their mark up is. The regular price of a sweater at Kohl's is around $40~$50 bucks, but this sweater costs them around $5~$9. At 50% off they are still selling at more than double their cost where as a discount of 80% would be selling roughly at cost. You'll notice, you won't find much below 80% off.

Anyhow this is just Kohl's sales gimmick. 50% off at Kohl's = regular price.

Last edited by Humanoid; 12-16-2008 at 12:31 PM..
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Old 12-16-2008, 12:23 PM
 
349 posts, read 800,900 times
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i think it might be worse than the great depression. we didn't use credit back then like we do now.
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Old 12-16-2008, 03:54 PM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,510,312 times
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Tell you Humanoid, if the q-2-q decline in real gdp as reported by bea comes in at over 5% we all might as well just get in a bunker, 'cause the only way that happens is if a space ship lands and the Earth Stands Still...

I know there are kinds of estimates out there , and all kinds of tinfoil-hat-wearing-looney-birds supposing the numbers are cooked, but to get that big a drop in the figures from bea the automakers would already have to be shutdown, the banks would have actually turned off their lights, the cable TV systems would have let their copper go cold and there'd be shot gun totting lunatics roaming the strip malls...
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Old 12-16-2008, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,558,423 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Tell you Humanoid, if the q-2-q decline in real gdp as reported by bea comes in at over 5% we all might as well just get in a bunker
What are you talking about? I said annualized rate of 5~6% in Q4.

The more optimistic estimates are from the government and they are around 3%. Again, that is annualized.

You seem to want to believe that this recession is no big deal so badly...but it is. The US is going to be a different place when its over. You can either plan for it or ignore it. Choice is yours.
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Old 12-16-2008, 04:35 PM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,510,312 times
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You cannot "plan" for declines in productivity. You can only adapt to them. I can see that things are not rosy, and I am old enough to have seen other non-rosy times. Back in the 50's and the 70's and more recently there have been all kinds of problems in the growth of the economy. Too many people want to ignore the fact that the current situation has already come about with surprising swiftness, and has been addressed with unprecedented seriousness on the part of many inside the current administration, some of the major bankers, the president elect, and other influential economists.

The steps that have been taken almost certainly HAVE done much to keep the overall economy functioning pretty damned well. Despite the fact that MUCH of economy IS functioning REMARKABLY well despite sharp fall off in new home construction, massive stock market declines, dramatic slow down in vehicle sales and a host of retail woes people in the media and certain pessimists seem to ACTIVELY BE HOPING for more bad news so that they can either "go to the video" or just swoop in on the unfortunate and buy up assets like some mustache twirling robber baron of ancient times.

I prefer to remind people that FEAR can be every bit as IRRATIONAL as exuberance and I personally take some delight in knocking the legs out from under foolish GRAVE DANCERS...
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