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Old 12-16-2008, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,557,965 times
Reputation: 592

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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
You cannot "plan" for declines in productivity. You can only adapt to them.
Why is it that you can't plan for a recession? I seem to have done just that 2 years ago.... How well is your portfolio doing? Mine has annualized growth of about 7%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
I prefer to remind people that FEAR can be every bit as IRRATIONAL as exuberance and I personally take some delight in knocking the legs out from under foolish GRAVE DANCERS...
Thats nice, but I'm talking about actual data here. Q4 2008 is going to be very bad, much worse than the numbers seen in Q3. There is no reason to believe Q1 of next year is going to be any better.

Now, you can think big daddy government is going to make things all better. But they can't, this is the final result of over 2 decades of economic mismanagement. Now, one can pretend that when the dust settles the same economic conditions will exist...or one can face reality and realize things are going to be much different in a few years.
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Old 12-16-2008, 04:51 PM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,498,915 times
Reputation: 18485
20 years of economic mismanagement? OhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhKay.

Why not 30? Do I hear 50? Why not 232?

Irrational. Q.E.D.
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Old 12-16-2008, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,774,258 times
Reputation: 27602
Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
20 years of economic mismanagement? OhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhKay.

Why not 30? Do I hear 50? Why not 232?

Irrational. Q.E.D.
You really don't have a clue Chet..do you ?

Why don't you go research the significance of that "20" years because that means something.
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Old 12-16-2008, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,557,965 times
Reputation: 592
Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
20 years of economic mismanagement? OhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhKay.

Why not 30? Do I hear 50? Why not 232?

Irrational. Q.E.D.
Yes around 20 years of economic mismanagement. Why not 30, 50 etc? Because it was around 20. Your reasoning seems to be that I'm wrong because I'm suggesting that the economy has been mismanaged for around 20 years versus say 50 years. And, you are calling me irrational? Interesting....
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Old 12-16-2008, 05:02 PM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,498,915 times
Reputation: 18485
Default Illumenti? New World Order? Which is it, I forget...

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
You really don't have a clue Chet..do you ?

Why don't you go research the significance of that "20" years because that means something.

George HW Walker Bush ushered in the Free Masons from Skull & Bones, right?

Obama is just the latest to carry the torch.

Come on. You really believe that the policies of government and the banking system are shaped by "dark forces"?
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Old 12-16-2008, 05:09 PM
 
16,092 posts, read 37,258,491 times
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Not to get too partisan but on another thread somewhere someone postulated that the media loves Obama so much that they will start talking up the economy as soon as he is in office, therefore the market will turn.

Having been a CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business junkie the last few months, I can say that when this Madoff scandal broke it seemed to touch a lot of the insiders and reporters personally. So I predict they will be moaning and predicting the end of the world for at least another few weeks.
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Old 12-16-2008, 06:39 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,774,258 times
Reputation: 27602
Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
George HW Walker Bush ushered in the Free Masons from Skull & Bones, right?

Obama is just the latest to carry the torch.

Come on. You really believe that the policies of government and the banking system are shaped by "dark forces"?
sorry chet..I don't really believe any of that NWO stuff. I read it yes but it ends there..that's tin foil in my book.

Look at the fiscal and economic policies and laws that have been enacted or laws that have been modified and who it benefited the most over the past 20 years.
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Old 12-16-2008, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Boca Raton, FL
5,512 posts, read 9,070,523 times
Reputation: 7184
Smile The media is just so negative

Quote:
Originally Posted by himain View Post
I may be completely wrong but does anyone else think that the media, all outlets together, is blowing this up completely so people panic therefore setting off a tremendous downward spiral???? I was listening to talk radio this morning and the guy on was basically saying the world is coming to an end and people will be living/starving in the streets, etc. I mean I totally don't see a recession here at all where I live, Charlotte, NC. The malls were/are packed even before the holiday season. Restaurants still have hour waits on weekends and high end dealers here are still selling cars. I understand people are losing jobs due to mergers, etc but that would happen anyways and would it be so mediaoritzed (I know not a word) 1 year ago?? What do you guys honestly think????
I think people believe what they read and hear, the more sensational the better. I think the negativity affects people and in turn, affects jobs (not spending, etc). The people that are going to do well in this economy are the ones buying now - real estate is cheap!
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Old 12-16-2008, 08:16 PM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,045,878 times
Reputation: 3961
Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
You cannot "plan" for declines in productivity. You can only adapt to them.
hmmm, where to start? Maybe education rather than debate?

Here is a worthy Christmas gift to yourself. Get this, study it, and we can over the details on here. If you do not understand this, learning it can change your life -- at least in a business (genre of the forum) sense.

Amazon.com: The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World: Peter Schwartz: Books

Called the Art of the Long View. A little old, but a classic. I studied it years ago as an Army LT. Covers how to PLAN for the Worst Case (and survive it), PLAN for the Best Case, (and profit from it), and PLAN for the Changed Case, and how to adapt (as you say) -- btw, the Changed Case is the most common outcome.

But you really have to have all three covered to do well. I see a cultural subset we have tagged Doomers, and they seem to stay stuck in the Worst Case. Other somewhat nitwit business sales types tend to stay stuck in the Best Case, and some folks think you can not preview the pending upsides and downsides, and just try to keep adapting without direction.

As far as application, I did the same as Humanoid, and had/have the Worst Case covered. No losses on Real Estate, No Losses on the Market -- and I coach my customers for the same.

Quote:
I can see that things are not rosy, and I am old enough to have seen other non-rosy times. Back in the 50's and the 70's and more recently there have been all kinds of problems in the growth of the economy.
Only thing that really grew from the 70's onward was debt. Dunno if that if that was the 20 year part ref'ed above, but that was the one-trick-pony from Reaganomics on. Debt, debt, and more debt. Corporate Debt, Government Debt, Individual Debt. Now all maxed out.

Game Over.

Quote:
Too many people want to ignore the fact that the current situation has already come about with surprising swiftness . . . . .
Naw, chet, many of us have seen these exact storm clouds on the horizon building for years. For example, housing started going surplus after 2005. But studying the Worst Case would have shown that to you. Actually I am more surprised the con men have been able to keep the game going this long. The legit full Worst Case ahead goes much deeper than is even commonly being presented.
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Old 12-16-2008, 08:37 PM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,498,915 times
Reputation: 18485
Well Lt Phil, you sound a little more rational than some of the others.

The certainty and glee with which some of the posters look to coming bad times is just not my cup of tea. I think that those you spread fear are going to make it easier for panicked morons to go crying into the arms of good ol' lovable, "always looking out for the downtrodden Barney Frank" who'll only be too happy to lock us into deals that make the current situation look rosy.

Con men abound everywhere.
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