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Thread summary:

Oil decline indicative of recession: world economic growth, debt capacity, return on investment

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Old 02-22-2010, 12:18 AM
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
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Time for a one year update to this thread.

I saw the headline on google, oil rises to a six week high above $80.

-The etf dxo actually went out business, stopped trading. So much for that. USO is pretty weak, only up 25%, even though the actual commodity doubled.

-My theory now is that maybe oil crashes again, this time even harder in the next 2-3 years. Maybe down to the 20's, 30's.

Reason being, after this stimulus wears out, there will be a bigger 2nd downwave in the economy. On top of currency problems. On top of speculation by goldman sachs and others (are they ever going to stop speculating?). People want the FED audited and Bernanke out, but they aren't going to be able to get rid of the speculative greed of some of these banks. Fears about the economy could make it skid pretty low if we go from dubai, greece to....UK, US?

-"Peak oil", I don't know about. Like you said, it seems like we always have 10-20 years of supply on hand.
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Old 02-23-2010, 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by John23 View Post

-"Peak oil", I don't know about. Like you said, it seems like we always have 10-20 years of supply on hand.
A bit early to say, but it looks like Peak may already be behind US.

U.S. Product Supplied of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products(Thousand Barrels per Day)

It that does point to the Peak -- it appears US Peak was about 2005.

But even if that was the Peak, there should be more than 10 to 20 years, but why would we want to keep wasting money on something imported, just to burn it?
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Old 02-23-2010, 05:16 AM
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what i want to know is why we have had a government that consistently has impeded our own development of oil resources, yet is willing to finance brazil so that they can engage in oil exploration.

we also have this news for colombia:
Now, according to a January 19, 2010 Bloomberg article, “The Export-Import Bank of the United States [a U.S. government agency] announced Jan. 19 its approval of a $1 billion preliminary commitment to help finance the sale of goods and services from various U.S. exporters to Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s national oil company.” It should be noted that Ecopetrol is a business partner with L.A.-based Occidental Petroleum.

Citing an industry expert, the Bloomberg article goes on to explain that “Ecopetrol is being aggressive in exploration and production,” and that, with the help of the financing from the Export-Import Bank, “Ecopetrol will almost double to 1 million barrels daily by 2015 as the company drills more wells in Colombia and neighboring South American nations.”

all of this is capital fleeing the united states and setting up shop elsewhere.

Last edited by floridasandy; 02-23-2010 at 05:25 AM..
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