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Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,510,291 times
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Just a fun question. Will the market end up or down this inauguration day? I think in the end it may end up. Not for any rational reason but to "show confidence" in our new president.
The second, or whatever number, wave of s*it loans is hitting the fan right now, not only in the US, but also in several European countries.
The market probably won't rebound until this wave has passed. Then, a few weeks or months later, it will be hit by another wave of bad loans that must be written-off.
If policymakers have any brains and care at all, they will work on restructuring domestic manufacturing and trade patterns. That will take time. The US has wasted an opportunity to retrain its workforce so far in the 2000s, the jury is still out whether anyone in a position of real power has understood the lesson or even cares.
My most realistic expectation is more corruption and raiding of the treasury. I expect the new administration to be akin to the Dinkins administration in New York, for those of you old enough to remember.
Too many of the "optimists" will be watching TV, or on the streets of DC. Realists will be in front of the trading screens matching the direction of markets in Asia (that were open yesterday and down) as well Europe (that is closing down).
Fun is fun, but folks that do this sort of thing full time can't break with the herd for the sake a happy headlines but destabilized portfolios...
I didn't vote because I don't know. Personally, I think Obama gives confidence to the people who don't have as much of an influence on the market as the people he threw under the bus during the campaign. If you have a business or are an investor of some sort, Obama is a scary man (if you take into account his campaign promises and leftist ideologies which are never cheap for the wealthy/business owners/investors). Unless Obama makes the masses want to go out and spend money/take on loans to buy a house/car etc., the markets not going to rally for a while (people have to snap back to their old habits of spending and borrowing first - can Obama make people do this?)... of course, I have no crystal ball but it's a guess.
it was beautiful. this college kid needed all $600 I made today. Gotta love SKF. In at $110 and got my limit price set at $225, though it was tempting to just get out today.
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