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View Poll Results: At the end of December, 2009, the DOW will be...
above 11,000 2 2.86%
at or around 11,000 1 1.43%
substantially higher than it is now but well below 11,000 9 12.86%
a bit higher than it is now 7 10.00%
around the same as it is now -- 8300 to 8700 range 7 10.00%
a bit lower than it is now 13 18.57%
substantially lower than it is now but well above 6,000 5 7.14%
at or around 6,000 12 17.14%
below 6,000 14 20.00%
Voters: 70. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-28-2008, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,411,246 times
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10,000 range. We bottomed in November. There will be one more massive storm to hit the economy - and that will be a wave of retail bankruptcies throughout the next three months. Once that passes, I think the worst will be over and we can start looking for a recovery by year end.
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Old 12-31-2008, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,670 posts, read 5,376,870 times
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Sixty voters.
  • Half believe we'll be higher, about the same, or a bit lower.
  • Half believe we'll be substantially lower to catastrophically lower.
  • And one abstainer who was more concerned with people eating than the equity market.
For the record, my vote was for "substantially higher than it is now but well below 11,000." Maybe 9800 -- which is 12%.
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Old 01-02-2009, 12:26 AM
 
146 posts, read 478,413 times
Reputation: 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
10,000 range. We bottomed in November. There will be one more massive storm to hit the economy - and that will be a wave of retail bankruptcies throughout the next three months. Once that passes, I think the worst will be over and we can start looking for a recovery by year end.
I agree what does everyone else think, but it should be interesting to see which companies go out.
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Old 01-02-2009, 12:56 AM
 
406 posts, read 1,235,303 times
Reputation: 146
hmmm. i voted for the 9-9500 range. i think there will be a huge decline with a few bankruptcies in major sectors like automotive and real estate, and with that construction, BUT i believe there will be an influx of "green" IPOs spurred by gov't announcements about tax incentives for sustainable business practice and operation, as well as consumer interest in the area of environmentalism and sustainability. so big drop, then a bigger increase. stay positive, and get your bankers to start loaning some damn money fer' chrissakes!
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Old 12-31-2009, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,670 posts, read 5,376,870 times
Reputation: 4083
10,428. The original question was 'is it more likely to be up 30% (11,050) or down 30% (5,950).'

It turned out to be up about 22.7% for the year. That was after a crummy day today (down 120 points)

As for the level prediction in this thread, 80% of poll respondents on here guessed it would be lower than it turned out. Actually, the way the categories are written, the one person who chose "around 11,000" is probably the closest.

Anyone want to post an end of 2010 poll?
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Old 12-31-2009, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Fairfield, CT
6,086 posts, read 8,958,932 times
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I think it will be about where it is now. I expect it to be a sideways year.
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Old 01-01-2010, 06:15 AM
 
12,869 posts, read 13,443,107 times
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i think denninger, as usual, made some good points in his prediction page today:

Last year (2009) there was almost no net debt issuance between corporates and Treasuries, adjusted for Quantitative Easing. Indeed, it was only about $200 billion. That this sort of extreme measure was required to prevent a bond market implosion is rather telling. But what's worse is what's on the calendar for 2010 - nearly $2 trillion of net issue, duration-adjusted. A huge part of this is Treasury debt, and there the news is even worse, as there's a serious duration problem in this regard - nearly half (about 40%) has a maturity of one year or less. This means that Treasury must roll over that debt - about $3 trillion worth - "or else."

Ask the asset-backed commercial paper market and auction-rate securities folks what happened to them when their short-duration paper couldn't be rolled on commercially-reasonable terms. Then extrapolate that to what happens to Treasury if (or possibly when) they're unable to roll $3 trillion plus issue another $2 trillion on top of it to fund the deficit. Do you really think that $5 trillion and change of Treasury paper is going to be "all ok" sans "monetization" - or will "they" foment an intentionally-engineered stock market crash to scare people into Treasury debt? I wish Timmy the best of luck with this - he's going to need it.

Remember, the belief that foreigners will not be there to rescue us this time around is not speculation - it in fact is born out by the latest TIC data, which showed that China had bought a net zero in Treasury issue in October. Nor did anyone else step to the plate. In short foreign nations are chock full of their own issues and are either issuing debt themselves or need their capital internally.
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Old 01-01-2010, 03:58 PM
 
630 posts, read 1,708,025 times
Reputation: 355
Capital will follow yield wherever it is,that is why so many foreigners got porked investing in U.S. MBS's.Will our yield go up,I sure hope so,I've been shorting treasuries for the last eight months w/o much success.Lack of interest (no pun intended) OR people finally starting to invest in equities again might propel yields higher.Few people actually made money in this recent market uptick,equity mutual funds had outflows this year,while bond funds had masive inflows.As long as this trend stays intact I will continue to buy stocks,when it reverses,bail out and don't get left holding the bag.Remember the following rules and you'll never go wrong,when Kramer and Kudlow turn bearish..buy,buy,buy.When Mark Haines goes bullish..sell,sell,sell!!!
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Old 02-05-2010, 03:15 PM
 
Location: Houston
529 posts, read 1,187,993 times
Reputation: 373
I wonder who is the person who voted for "at or around 11K"?

I'm one of the 2 people who voted above 11K, I guess I was too optimistic.
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