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View Poll Results: At the end of December, 2009, the DOW will be...
above 11,000 2 2.86%
at or around 11,000 1 1.43%
substantially higher than it is now but well below 11,000 9 12.86%
a bit higher than it is now 7 10.00%
around the same as it is now -- 8300 to 8700 range 7 10.00%
a bit lower than it is now 13 18.57%
substantially lower than it is now but well above 6,000 5 7.14%
at or around 6,000 12 17.14%
below 6,000 14 20.00%
Voters: 70. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-26-2008, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,670 posts, read 5,376,870 times
Reputation: 4083

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I was watching Fast Money on CNBC on Wednesday and they were speculating as to where the DOW 30 would be this time next year. Specifically the host asked everyone which was more likely: 30% up (11,000) or 30% down (6,000). It was a tie!

I figured there'd be a few year end review/next year prediction threads popping up, so I'll get the ball rolling. We all know the stock market isn't the real economy, so this poll/thread is only on one facet of the economic picture for 2009. The poll is just your prediction for the end of December 2009, regardless of how it got there. The thread is for your prediction of what happens -- is it a slow, steady progression, does it look like a Christmas Tree or the Grand Canyon in getting there, etc.

Thanks!
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Old 12-26-2008, 09:34 AM
 
242 posts, read 674,266 times
Reputation: 192
my guess, based on when the credit boom started, would put it at 3000k as a real bottom and then move up from there.

If I have to say actual amount..... 2935.
Actual date...lol...hmm.... how about dec 2009.


boo!
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Old 12-26-2008, 12:52 PM
Status: "In my anti Corona hidey hole......." (set 13 days ago)
 
Location: North Central Florida
5,414 posts, read 6,451,151 times
Reputation: 3225
Well, Im certainly no expert, but just based on simple, non in depth analysis, based on the recent performance. And the fact that there really doesnt appear to be anything coming along to significantly brighten the picture, and indeed much to make the picture worse. I'd say less than 6,000(by August)
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Old 12-26-2008, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
17,031 posts, read 27,574,967 times
Reputation: 16212
I think we bounce around in 2009. Drops back to 7000 and pops up to current levels almost touching 9000.
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Old 12-26-2008, 04:44 PM
 
Location: Oregon Coast
1,848 posts, read 6,338,122 times
Reputation: 1395
It's going to be difficult to see where it's going. I picked around the same as now 8300 t0 8700, since it doesn't seem to be doing much lately.
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Old 12-26-2008, 08:02 PM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
6,333 posts, read 9,119,984 times
Reputation: 6702
the absolute numbers are hard to compare between now and the future. The indexes are computed from the individual stock price values based in dollars. If the dollar falls in value by 20% and the DOW increases by 10% then in relative terms the DOW is still lower although the absolute numbers may be higher. I do not believe the DOW compensates the divisor that they use to accomodate the relative value of the currency.
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Old 12-26-2008, 08:30 PM
 
32 posts, read 92,284 times
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My crystal ball says 7500, but it's wrong as much as it right.
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Old 12-26-2008, 11:47 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 12,554,426 times
Reputation: 8057
While I voted for below 6000, it's entirely possible that diehard pollyannas will keep the Dow way above what it should be, even given the probable severe depression that we'll be in at that time.
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Old 12-27-2008, 03:35 PM
 
5,090 posts, read 10,049,252 times
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Did not have my choice . . .

"Mostly irrelevant, as folks are more concerned about eating than worrying about what some worthless paper stock may or may not be worth."

We will look back and it may seem as silly as . . . . "Save your Confederate Money, The South Shall Rise Again."
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Old 12-28-2008, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Backwoods of Maine
7,257 posts, read 8,590,207 times
Reputation: 19679
Three years ago, Richard Russell said that gold and the Dow would cross at 3,000.

He hasn't changed his prediction.

If you don't know who Richard Russell is, go stand in the corner.
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